Here are the picks:

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I also had Deebo Samuel in one of my NFFC leagues. He and Kaelon Black were the big revelations in this game. Everything else went more or less to form, given the lopsided score. Maybe there’s some concern about Davante Adams’ usage, but I wouldn’t read much into it. And of course De’Zhaun Stribling hurt his ankle.

• Brock Purdy made one bad throw on the pick, but was mostly poised and accurate in the face of what was supposed to be an all-time Rams pass rush. I’ll chalk up their sluggishness to the travel, a good game plan, a sharp QB and Aaron Donald not yet being there. Plus Kilometers Garrett was apparently not 100 percent. Purdy is also an underrated runner.

• Christian McCaffrey looked healthy on his 10 carries and five catches (eight targets), but it was Black who led the team in carries with 14. Black looked like Jordan Mason from a couple years ago, gashing defenses in Kyle Shanahan’s run scheme. Maybe Blake Corum and Kenneth Gainwell were the top backups during the preseason, but I’d expect Black to go in their same vicinity now for the NFFC weekend drafts.

• Samuel had one drop, but he looked fast and tough, like he picked up where he left off last time he was with the Niners. It was pretty obvious Samuel was the guy to take over Stribling so long as he had gas left in the tank. That was really the only question, and he answered it.

• Demarcus Robinson led the team in receiving and scored a long TD, but Mike Evans and Deebo each saw seven targets and are the guys for whom Purdy looks. George Kittle didn’t do much, couldn’t tell from the edited version whether he was on a limited snap count, but if so probably won’t be for long with Jake Tonges now hurt. Evans caught a lot of short stuff, but all six of his receptions were for first downs if you include the TD. He too looked healthy and sharp after a limited camp.

• We’ll see how serious Stribling’s injury is, but if it’s a high ankle sprain, he’s probably a drop in a lot of formats. Can’t wait four weeks for third-fiddle on a team with McCaffrey and Kittle.

• Matthew Stafford connected with Puka Nacua for a nice 41-yard catch and run, but otherwise there wasn’t much there. Nacua seemed healthy at least.

• Adams saw six targets to Puka’s nine, and people were remarking how Adams wasn’t in the game when the Rams were near the goal line, but then again they got stuffed, and Adams had 14 TDs last year, so that could easily change next week.

• Blake Corum and Kyren Williams are in a timeshare, but Williams got the TD and also the three catches for 24 yards. Corum looked like the guy with more juice, though.

• Garrett didn’t record a single tackle, but apparently generated some pressures. Again, with respect to Stafford, Adams and Garrett, I’m not sweating one subpar game.

The other crazy thing was I saw a Twitter post that the gay-ish head ref, you know who I mean, the black guy who announced the penalty calls in this one, almost always presides over games where the underdog covers. I didn’t fact check that — or even that he’s actually gay — but I had it in mind every time the Seahawks were called for a drive-continuing defensive penalty (which happened three or four times), or an offensive offsides that caused them to punt or an illegal shift that undid the Cooper Kupp TD. I won’t say the NFL was thumbing the scale, only that I noticed. And if you had the Pats +3.5, that insanely reckless Drake Maye interception at the end of the game was perfect, given they were in game-tying and overtime-risking FG range.

They also showed AJ Brown grabbing his lower leg after being tackled, but you don’t get an announcement, only crucial third-down throws going to Romeo Doubs, and you could infer Brown was probably out. My Steak League team is already on the ropes having lost Josh Jacobs (drafted before the exempt list), Brock Bowers (way to sniff that out ahead of time, beat reporters) and now Brown. It’s a 14-team league, you don’t have any depth. Remind me never to pay for a 23-YO player who’s already going bald. Guy is aging so fast he’s like those kids with that crazy disease they used to trot out on “That’s Incredible,” you remember the show with Fran Tarkenton. Maybe it was before your time, but those 80-year old 10-year olds freaked me out. Probably was fake like almost everything else we’ve been trained to fear, but that psyop definitely worked on me. “AI is gonna kill us all,” not so much.

• The Seahawks defense looked like the one that won the Super Bowl seven months ago. Nasty against the run and pass, quick, disciplined and aggressive. Pleased to have them in three leagues.

• Drew Lock wasn’t bad. He took a couple sacks early he shouldn’t have, but he threw the ball accurately enough. The Seahawks remind me a bit of the 2017 Eagles where the drop-off from then MVP candidate Carson Wentz to Nick Foles was surprisingly negligible. Usually the QB is the guy who makes everything go, the one Jenga piece you can’t pull, but those Eagles were the rare exception.

• Jadarian Price looked pretty good to me, had a spring in his step and showed good hands on his two targets. He split carries with George Holani, but I’d expect that split to widen, and a returning-from-serious-injury Zach Charbonnet doesn’t strike me as a major threat if Price gets rolling.

• I’m awfully glad to have two shares of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. What a paragon of consistency! I don’t think it makes much difference to his production whether it’s Darnold or Lock. I couldn’t believe he scored on that 45-yard catch and run, either — it was like the defender was always just two feet behind him, and the gap neither widened nor closed.

• Nice one-handed catch by Cooper Kupp. JSN has the perfect complements in Kupp and Rashid Shaheed, solid players who pose zero threat to his target share. Anyone else have to double-check constantly whether it’s Rasheed Shahid or Rashid Shaheed?

• Drake Maye ran well, but otherwise had a poor game. Doubs’ soul-crushing drops didn’t help, and neither did his one good receiver getting hurt against one of the league’s top defenses on the road. I wasn’t willing to pay the premium to draft Maye this year, but this game doesn’t move the needle much either way. It did align with my Super Bowl hangover prediction for the Pats, though.

• Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t have much juice against a tough defense, but he sure got a ton of work (18 carries and six targets). He’s like the Javonte Williams of the AFC, which might or might not change once TreVeyon Henderson gets healthy.

• Brown was apparently in a walking boot after the game, people are saying sprained ankle. He should have had a TD too on the flea-flicker, but Maye’s underthrow resulted in a (warranted) PI call instead. He could be back in a couple weeks, but this is how lost seasons often start.

(Actually, probably better to just link to all of them for full transparency: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014.) I’m not going to argue it matters, or that anyone even clicks through on these, but no one has a more organized archive of his work than I do.)

Okay, without further ado, here are this year’s:

1. The Patriots miss the playoffs.

   The Super Bowl loser hangover is real. Even the dynastic Chiefs missed the playoffs last year after losing to the Eagles. The prior year the 49ers went 6-11 after losing to the Chiefs. The year before that the Eagles made the playoffs, but collapsed down the stretch losing six of seven including the Wild Card game. The last team to survive the Super Bowl curse was the Bengals who went 12-4 and lost in the AFC title game to the Chiefs. The curse isn’t absolute, but it’s probably real in the sense of having to play that many games, finish the season that late on an emotional gut punch. It doesn’t help the Pats won’t have quite the cupcake schedule and their coach was busted this offseason for banging the slutty reporter, either.

2. Justin Jefferson (ADP 10) outperforms Puka Nacua (ADP4) by a wide enough margin that no math is necessary.

   Nacua is a beast when he’s on the field, but accusations (true or not) from his ex, and a nagging groin/psoas muscle make him an awfully risky pick at No. 4 overall, and that’s before considering his Cam Skattebo-esque style of play. Jefferson is a Hall of Fame level receiver at age 27, who gets a bad but at least NFL-level QB back in a good system. It wasn’t long ago the debate was Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase at 1.1.

3. One of the following teams makes the playoffs this year: Titans, Jets, Dolphins, Browns, Raiders, Cardinals or Falcons.

   This one is probably closer to 50/50 than a “bold” pick, but all of these teams are projected for win totals of 6.5 or less.

4. Bo Nix (ADP 135) outproduces Joe Burrow this year (ADP 73)

   Nix led the NFL in attempts last year with 612 and scored five rushing TDs, after scoring four as a rookie. The Broncos also added Jaylen Waddle this offseason. The Bengals have one good receiver and one Hall of Famer, but Burrow won’t run, there’s no depth behind them, and he’s one of the most fragile QBs in the league.

5. Tetairoa McMillan (ADP 34) outproduces Chris Olave (ADP 19)

   Give me the second-year growth guy with little competition for targets over the concussion risk who will have to fend off the No. 8 overall pick during the second half of the season.

6. Josh Jacobs leads the Packers in rushing by more than 200 yards

   I read a lot of sorry takes a couple weeks ago when Jacobs got put on the exempt list, suggesting he was done for the year or forever when it happened. If that were the case, why was he still getting paid by the Packers, and why was he still around the team’s facility even though he was barred from practicing? Plainly the team had not seen a Ray-Rice level video, and it’s likely the league hadn’t, either. Moreover, if law enforcement has such a video, why did they only bring a misdemeanor charge? Could something still emerge? Sure, but if not, Jacobs is a good bet for 200 carries this year, the purportedly reanimated carcass of Marshawn Lloyd notwithstanding.

7. Chuba Hubbard (ADP103) has more carries and receptions than Jonathon Brooks (ADP 76)

   I grabbed a share of Brooks in the Primetime, but that he is still dealing with “soreness” in September after such a long layoff isn’t a good sign. It’s too bad beat reporters no longer serve any useful function, or we might actually know what kind of soreness it is and whether it involves his surgically repaired knee. In any event, while I hope to be wrong, Hubbard who is nothing special should be considered the heavy favorite for opportunities.

8. Jayden Reed (ADP 84) outproduces Marvin Harrison (ADP 56)

   Reed is always hurt, but he’s healthy now, Romeo Doubs and Dontavion Wicks are gone, Christian Watson isn’t exactly a paragon of durability himself, Tucker Kraft is coming off an ACL tear and Josh Jacobs could miss some games with a suspension. Reed is a good player who should finally see opportunities commensurate with his skills. Harrison didn’t show much growth from Year 1 to Year 2, and it’s obvious Michael Wilson has more upside. In any event, both are at best second fiddles to Trey McBride.

9. Kyle Pitts (TE 9) will put up a top-3 season in PPR

   Tight ends are often late bloomers, and Pitts, still just 25, showed at the end of last year he’s capable of diverging from the OJ Howard career path. This year he has only Drake London with whom to compete for targets. Even if Tua Tagovailoa is cooked and Michael Vagenix below average, the Falcons will attempt ~500 passes, at least 130 of which should go to a healthy Pitts.

10. Some of these predictions will be wrong

    No one’s perfect, but you never want to get shut out.

Links (in order): BCL1, BCL2, Steak League, NFFC Online, Stacker Sports, Primetime

Players in whom I have the most shares:

QB: Jaxson Dart (3), Daniel Jones (2)

RB: Nick Singleton (4), Bucky Irving (2), Josh Jacobs (2), RJ Harvey (2), Woody Marks (2) Kimani Vidal (2), Sean Tucker (2)

WR: Quentin Johnston (3), Isaac TeSlaa (3), Amon-Ra St. Brown (2), Jaxson Smith-Njigba (2), AJ Brown (2), Luther Burden (2), Chris Godwin (2), Tre’ Harris (2)

TE: Evan Engram (3), Brock Bowers (2), Ordonde Gadsden (2)

K: Jaguars (3)

D: Seahawks (3)

Notes:

I got Nick Singleton in my RotoWire Dynasty draft and decided to make him a late-round pick virtually everywhere. There was no rhyme or reason to it other than not loving the Tennessee backs ahead of him and wanting to go all-in on someone I could drop without conscience if it didn’t work out. I would have had Dart in a couple more places too, had I not been snaked by one pick. Quentin Johnston is an important player for me this year.

Prominent Players I Don’t Have (bold is by choice):

Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown, Christian McCaffrey, Drake London, Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker, Omarion Hampton, Chris Olave, Derrick Henry, Nico Collins, Ashton Jeanty, DeVonta Smith, Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Javonte Williams, Parker Washington, Colston Loveland, Emeka Egbuka, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, Terry McLaurin, Rome Odunze, Marvin Harrison, Josh Allen, Breece Hall, D’Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Bhayshul Tuten, Joe Burrow, Mike Evans, Quinshon Judkins

Past Portfolios:

2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015

1.12 James Cook — With only half-PPR and two starting WR, the TD-heavy backs get a boost, so I took Cook who I would not have taken in NFFC.

2.3 Justin Jefferson — The backs score better than WR, but Jefferson is a superstar, and he’ll bounce back with Kyler Murray this year.

3.12 Jaxson Dart — It’s a QB-flex format the scoring for which favors running QBs. I probably should have taken a QB in Round 2, but I played chicken and won.

4.3 Jared Goff — Given how long it was between picks and that there were 14-teams, I had to lock up my second quarterback.

5.12 Luther Burden — RBs score better here, but Burden was the best overall upside play left on the board.

6.3 Jadarian Price — I like him better in half PPR, and I needed a second back.

7.12 Marshawn Lloyd — Probably my worst pick in the draft. We had good reason to believe Josh Jacobs would be back at some point, but maybe Lloyd will prove useful early.

8.3 Daniel Jones — My best pick in the draft — gotta take that viable third QB here.

9.12 Quentin Johnston — Best overall upside play left, and I wanted a third WR.

10.3 Texans Defense — Defenses get a lot of bonus points, was happy to snag a good one.

11.12 Dallas Goedert — I needed a TE, and he is one. I actually like him with A.J. Brown gone too.

12.3 Jonah Coleman — I don’t trust JK Dobbins to stay healthy.

13.12 Juwan Johnson — Just in case Goedert gets hurt.

Roster By Position

QB Jaxson Dart

RB James Cook/Jadarian Price

WR Justin Jefferson/Luther Burden

TE Dallas Goedert

QB FLX Jared Goff

FLX Quentin Johnston

D Texans

B Marshawn Lloyd/Daniel Jones/Jonah Coleman/Juwan Johnson

But heading into the draft, I got a little nervous with all the bad news coming out on Puka Nacua. His ex posted a video alleging abuse — who knows if any of it’s true, but that didn’t matter in Trevor Bauer’s case — and he’s still, according to his coach “making good progress in his recovery” from a groin injury. With a top-six overall pick, I don’t want “progress,” I want nothing from which to progress in the first place.

So I wasn’t taking Nacua, who already makes me nervous with his physical style of play for a WR, but I was worried the news might spook the guys picking 4 and 5, they’d take ARSB and JSN, and I’d be stuck. Initially I decided I’d go Christian McCaffrey — if you’re gonna gamble, why settle for Nacua when you can go straight to the top? But McCaffrey’s workload last year, age, the electrical substation, his injury history, I’m not feeling it. I looked at James Cook and Jonathan Taylor, and they’re both solid, but your first round back should ideally be a PPR machine, and neither fits the bill.

So I decided if ARSB and JSN were gone, I was going Justin Jefferson at 6. Arguably a top-five all-time WR, still in his late prime, with a weak, but at least NFL-quality QB again. But if I did that, six was a bad draft slot, and I was hoping it didn’t happen.

In any event, here are the results:

1.6 Jaxson Smith-Njigba — Nacua went four, much to my relief, ARSB went five, and JSN was the easy call. I guess the downside is you can’t really stack him with a big-time fantasy QB, but give me the guy squarely in his prime, coming off an all-time efficient season, the only game in town, with, knock on wood, a clean injury history.

2.7 De’Von Achane — This was unplanned. Looking at recent ADP, I was going to reach a couple picks for Drake London whose poor QB situation is probably overblown. He’s never had a great QB, he’s the only game in town (besides the TE), and he’s always produced when healthy. But I wasn’t even close as London went on the turn, almost a full round early.

My fallback was George Pickens, but he too went two picks ahead of me. Once Omarion Hampton went (not sure I would have taken him anyway), I narrowed it down to Chris Olave or Achane. Olave will get a ton of work early with Jordyn Tyson out, but the concussion history and Tyson’s return well before the playoffs steered me away. I wasn’t ready to push Brock Bowers and the other receiver I like, Rashee Rice, seemed a little reachy. So I clicked Achane who has missed only one game the last two years, has had a modest workload and is a great player. Malik Willis might actually be good, too, and even if he takes off rather than checks down, the Dolphins will find ways to get the ball into the hands of their best player.

3.7 Tetairoa McMillan — The ADP had a few guys ahead of him — Ladd McConkey (health), Jaylen Waddle (new team that spreads it around), Tee Higgins (Chase), Luther Burden (promising, but unproven), Garrett Wilson (Jets) — so I took McMillan, the top WR in his class last year who more or less lived up to his billing as a rookie and almost certainly should get better in Year 2. In retrospect, McConkey would have made for a perfect stack, but I didn’t know that at the time. I love the top two WRs, but the QBs with whom they pair are bad.

4.6 DJ Moore — He slipped a bit, and I bought the dip. One luxury of having Achane is I didn’t have to get a running back here. I thought about Jeremiyah Love, and I would have taken him but for the high ankle sprain. The Bills brought in and paid Moore to be a true No. 1, though it remains to be seen whether they spread it around or use him like Stefon Diggs.

5.7 Davante Adams — He also slipped half a round. I was targeting Cam Skattebo there, but the same guy who took London half a round early did the same with him. I also considered Jadarian Price, but I don’t know the extent to which they’ll use him in the passing game, and a late first round pick isn’t the same draft capital as say Love where they’re forced to play him once Zach Charbonnet comes back. Adams is old, but he had 14 TDs in 14 games, and as I mentioned, I don’t trust Nacua to stay healthy. But now I had filled up my receivers and flex.

6.6 Quentin Johnston — Did I mention I had already filled up my WR and flex? The next back on the board, per ADP, was Jaylen Warren, and I wasn’t willing to push a timeshare guy up half a round past ADP just because I needed a RB. The Chargers offense has a ton of upside, and I don’t trust McConkey to stay healthy, but as I said, had I known who I’d have afterwards, maybe I would have taken him in Round 3.

7.7 Jonathon Brooks — I’ve been out on Brooks all draft season. Real long shot a guy with his injury history survives in the NFL. Best case is JK Dobbins who gets you like 10 games before going down. But this was cheaper than usual, and taking a big risk in Round 7 is not the same as doing it in Rounds 1-3.

8.6 RJ Harvey — Sean Payton said he wanted to make Harvey a big part of the passing game, and if that’s true, that means floor. After a ceiling RB2 pick, floor is what I needed. Hoping he’s the Darren Sproles while Dobbins and Jonah Coleman battle it out for the dirty work.

9.7 Harold Fannin — It was Fannin who’s been overhyped IMO, given the mouths to feed in the weak Cleveland offense, or Chuba Hubbard to play it extra safe and lock up the Carolina backfield. I went Fannin once Dalton Kincaid went the pick ahead of me to secure a tight end. You can play defense if the draft delivers it to you, but I didn’t want to pay market price just to lock up weak team’s backfield.

10.6 Justin Herbert — Once Hubbard went two picks ahead of me, I was in on Herbert who pairs with Johnston and now you know why I might have gone McConkey in Round 3. Mike McDaniel brings a new level of upside to the offense, and Herbert could be the QB1 if turned loose behind a better offensive line.

11.7 Woody Marks — I was glad Marks fell to me, as he was the last semi-timeshare back I wanted. There’s chance David Montgomery takes 70 percent of the touches, but Montgomery has been banged up in recent years, and there’s a lot of wear on those tires.

12.6 Tre’ Harris — Harris was a second round pick last year and is now third on the depth chart behind only McConkey and Johnston. With Oronde Gadsden possibly out of favor (I suspect that’s overblown) and Keenan Allen gone, there’s upside should one of the two starters go down. He also helps complete my Chargers stack.

13.7 Jalen McMillan — Taking Harris cost me my backup QB Jaxson Dart by one pick, but I knew it might. I almost took Dart the round before, but didn’t want the weekly headache of choosing between Herbert and Dart anyway, and when you spend up on (for me) an expensive starting QB, you don’t want to forego value to grab a quality backup. But it still stung not to get Dart here. I actually had McMillan as my fallback the previous round had Harris been taken, so I was happy to snap him up a round later. Emeka Egbuka is already hurt, and Chris Godwin always gets hurt.

14.6 Malik Davis — I was willing to play chicken on the backup QB one more round, thinking I’d grab the other Malik (Willis) in 15 to pair with Achane. Davis is the clear backup to Javonte Williams now that Jaydon Blue was cut, and that’s a valuable backfield to own should Williams get hurt.

15.7 Kimani Vidal — Willis went to the same guy who took both London and Skattebo, so I decided to wait even longer for Daniel Jones and take Vidal. Vidal was actually good last year, and if anything happens to Hampton, I’d expect him to get the bulk of the work rather than injury-prone gadget guy Keaton Mitchell.

16.6 Jaguars Defense — If Travis Hunter was worth the No. 2 overall pick as a cornerback and is playing full time there, that should improve the entire defense, but mostly I like that they draw the Browns in Week 1.

17.7 Jaguars Kicker — Cam Big is a staple of my teams this year. Booming leg attached to a good offense in good weather. I also like pairing the kicker with the defense, a sneaky correlation.

18.6 TJ Hockenson — I decided to play chicken on backup QB one more round and snag Hockenson who for some reason no one likes. Remember, the Vikings have an NFL QB now, and there’s not much depth behind Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Moreover, Hockenson has been bad the last two years, one due to it being his first year back from ACL surgery (2024) and the other due to JJ McCarthy/Carson Wentz (2025). He’s now healthy and still presumably has the skills.

19.7 Evan Engram — Daniel Jones got snagged, I STILL did not have a backup QB, so I took another TE who was going in the top-10 rounds last year.

20.6 Jacoby Brissett — I could have taken another backup RB, but I wanted a backup QB in case Herbert gets into a freak accident this week, and Brissett should be higher than this given where Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison, Love and Michael Wilson go and the numbers Brissett put up last year. He’ll probably lose his job at some point, but I can cross that bridge when we get there.

Roster By Position

QB Justin Herbert

RB De’Von Achane/Jonathon Brooks

WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba/Tetairoa McMillan/DJ Moore

FLEX Davante Adams

TE Harold Fannin

K Jaguars

D Jaguars

B Quentin Johnston/RJ Harvey/Woody Marks/Tre’ Harris/Jalen McMillan/Malik Davis/Kimani Vidal/TJ Hockenson/Evan Engram/Jacoby Brissett

The link to that tool is here.

The recent NFFC ADP is the one tool you need to take into your drafts, though the NFFC itself probably should just let you set the date-range/number or drafts to power the default list inside its draft room (rather than just the overall list which has lots of old ADP contaminating it). But until they do, this is useful, and it’s also useful for any other full PPR, 3-WR/FLEX format.

Here’s the link to the Cheatsheet Tool.

To be clear, this generic one takes into account everything else — market-based survival chances plus pot odds, based on modeling percentage-owned historically and mixing that with “polling” data from Yahoo and Splash per Survivorgrid.com. The difference between that and my Circa one is the latter uses Circa-specific historical data and builds in a specific strategy to deal with the holiday games. Further, you have to model how those holiday games alter the distribution of picks (which they obviously do as people are forced to hoard those teams.)

In any event, Substack can’t host tools, but my URL can, and so if you want to check out the full pot-odds-integrated Survivor Oracle, click here. Eventually I might put this behind a paywall, but for now it’s free.

Here are the results:

1.6 Amon-Ra St. Brown — I made sixth my fourth choice after the top three because I knew at worst I’d get JSN or ARSB, but someone took Jonathan Taylor fifth, so I actually had to choose. It was 50/50, almost clicked JSN, but I have him in one BCL, and decided to mix it up.

2.7 A.J. Brown — It’s funny, I bought both players last night in the Steak League auction, and they’re my first two picks the next day. Brown (this one, not Amon-Ra) is a bit of a head case, but he’s a great player, and he’s never had a QB like Drake Maye and so little competition for targets.

3.7 Rashee Rice — I initially picked Tet McMillan, but the guy at 3.6 had them pause the draft and change his pick from Rice to Waddle, so I had the option to take Rice, and I did. That might have been a mistake — McMillan looked good as a rookie, and he’ll be better this year, but Rice is a PPR machine in KC, and they didn’t bring in anyone new.

4.6 Kyren Williams — I wasn’t in love with my choices here. I considered Jameson Williams for the Lions stack, but it seemed reachy. Williams was almost a round below ADP, and I needed a running back. I had been targeting Josh Jacobs, but today the Packers GM said they were bracing for a potential suspension.

5.7 Cam Skattebo — Once Christian Watson went, the receivers weren’t good values here, and Skattebo was the obvious pick. He’s healthy for now.

6.6 Chris Godwin — Once Jadarian Price went off the board, I was more or less set on Godwin. I don’t trust Emeka Egbuka with the nagging toe problem, and even if Ebuka is fine, Godwin will get regular targets for as long as he can hold up.

7.7 Kyle Pitts — I love Pitts this year. Last year he showed he was more or less who we thought, and tight ends are often late bloomers. And he and Drake London are the entire passing game. If Pitts were gone, I was set on Blake Corum, but I passed on locking up the Rams backfield to get my TE.

8.6 Blake Corum — This was where my draft peaked. Corum made it all the way back, giving me some Kyren Williams insurance. I had four WR, three RB and a TE, and when you spend most of your resources on WR, you need more depth at RB.

9.7 Chuba Hubbard — Another depth pick at RB. I don’t know whether Jonathon Brooks can hold up, but even if he does, he’s not going to be a workhorse.

10.6 Dalton Kincaid — Actually this is where my draft peaked. Another below-ADP upside play, some Pitts insurance and even a possible bye-week flex. I was playing it perfectly, and there were still so many good QBs left I didn’t even consider Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott or Jalen Hurts, all of whom were available.

11.7 Cyrus Allen — This is where my draft went off the rails. Using recent ADP, I was sure I could wait until Round 12 to grab several of my potential targets. Allen has reportedly had a great camp, was Rice insurance and made for a nice pairing with Patrick Mahomes if I liked.

12.6 Baker Mayfield — He’s not terrible, and he pairs with Godwin, but between the Allen pick and Mayfield, Bo Nix, Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff (ARSB pair), Mahomes, Jaxson Dart and Kyler Murray flew off the board, a run of seven QBs in 10 picks. I would’ve liked Mayfield as my backup, but in a six-point per passing TD league, he can still be fine.

13.7 Aaron Jones — The Cowboys kicker was gone, and Jones had fallen a good deal. I still needed a backup QB, but none of the guys drafting in the front half needed one (they all had two), so I figured I take one on the way back.

14.6 Kimani Vidal — No QBs went, and I decided to play chicken for another round, figuring at least one of my targets would be there (per ADP) on the way back. I really like Vidal who already proved he could play last year, and I don’t expect Keaton Mitchell to hold up.

15.7 Seahawks Defense — Tyler Shough went one pick ahead of me, but the real wrench was Team 10 taking Malik Willis, his third QB. Once those two were gone, no point in reaching for a QB here.

16.6 Daniel Jones — He was the last QB you could trust to keep the job. Maybe I could have just not bothered, but if Alec Pierce gets back, Jones has enough weapons to be useful in a pinch.

17.7 Nick Singleton — I have him in every league including the Staff Keeper where I discovered him. I have no idea if he’ll even play, but if he does somehow become that surprise rookie breakout, my entire portfolio is getting a big boost. I kind of like the idea of drafting one almost random guy everywhere in the late rounds, just in case.

18.6 Isaac TeSlaa — I know he’s good, he just doesn’t have a role, but injuries and opportunities are unpredictable in the NFL.

19.7 Oronde Gadsden — People have left him for dead because he’s been practicing with the backups in camp, but he was a rookie sensation for a few weeks on a team with injury prone Ladd McConkey, inconsistent Quentin Johnston and unproven Tre’ Harris.

20.6 Harrison Butker — he just drilled a 69-yarder the other day, and he’s based af.

Roster By Position

QB Baker Mayfield

RB Kyren Williams/Cam Skattebo

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown/A.J. Brown/Rashee Rice

TE Kyle Pitts

FLEX Chris Godwin

K Chiefs

D Seahawks

B Blake Corum/Chuba Hubbard/Dalton Kincaid/Cyrus Allen/Aaron Jones/Kimani Vidal/Daniel Jones/Nick Singleton/Isaac TeSlaa/Oronde Gadsden

Most of you already know about this, but the side bet, one in LA and one in Wisconsin, is that among six entrants, the top three total point scorers on the year eat for free, the fourth pays for his own meal (1/6th of the check), fifth pays for his own and one of the “eaters” (1/3rd) and last pays for himself and two of the eaters (1/2). Last year the bill came out to about $1000, so you can do the math.

. . .

There are some other quirks about the league. It’s deep (14-teams) uses IDP (Individual Defensive Players) instead of team defenses, it’s half-point PPR and it’s an auction format.

Last night I felt I did an okay job IF the goal were to win the league. But as you can tell from the subtitle, it was probably not the best way to auction where finishing upper middle of the pack nets you $250 worth of free steak, shrimp and lobster, while finishing bottom half cost you $300-$500.

I bitched out on a cheap Ja’Marr Chase after he tweaked his knee, stayed in until $47 on Jaxon Smith-Njigba before letting him go, then decided just to pony up and get Amon-Ra St. Brown for $51. My MO in these drafts is typically to buy a few stars I trust, and once Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson went in the mid 50s, it was down to St. Brown, Jefferson and Lamb.

I intended to spend almost all my money on RB and WR, skimping on TE and QB, but Brock Bowers was stalling in the high 20s, so I stepped in and got him for 28. I take my cue from the NFFC ADP, and Bowers ($28) goes almost a full round ahead of Trey McBride ($32).

That Bowers buy cost me, as did a $28 Ladd McConkey late when I was almost out of money. Yes, my starting receivers are St. Brown, A.J. Brown and McConkey with Bowers at TE, but I was down to $1 players early, so my flex is whoever emerges from a bunch of scrubs, and my RB2 is Woody Marks. The one place I executed well was at QB, getting Trevor Lawrence for $3. Lawrence was the top-QB in the second half last year and still has Liam Coen calling the shots. It’s crazy to pay up for a QB when Lawrence-level options are virtually free.

Here are the full results with prices, organized by team/position:

Here are the results:

Link to BCL1

1.3 Ja’Marr Chase — No brainer, though had Jeff taken Chase I’d have been happy to take one of the two backs.

2.10 George Pickens — Another easy call for me. For a minute during the livestream I thought De’Von Achane was still on the board and had to think about it, but ultimately I would have taken Pickens anyway.

3.10 Trey McBride — There was a massive run on receivers, so I considered DeVonta Smith, but Smith is so small and skinny, and the Eagles are a run first team, especially from in close. I love some of the middle-round TE like Kyle Pitts, but McBride at the end of the third was too good to pass up.

4.3 Luther Burden — He’s hurt right now, but he has a chance to be the WR1 in a top passing offense, and Year 2 is when receivers who showed promise as rookies typically break out.

5.10 Josh Jacobs — If he’s not suspended, this is a steal. The Packers didn’t make any major moves at RB, and Jacobs is their workhorse.

6.3 Bucky Irving — I thought about Jadarian Price, but couldn’t figure out whether he’d catch passes or get a big workload, so I passed. Irving is ostensibly healthy now, and he’s a good player in a solid offense.

7.10 Blake Corum — I needed more depth at RB, given my first four picks were TE and WR. Corum’s role grew last year, and the Rams are still an elite offense.

8.3 Kenneth Gainwell — This was a cowardly pick, getting Irving’s backup rather than looking for more upside. I suppose I could have taken Jordan Addison, but Irving’s main downside is health, and now I was pretty well covered at running back.

9.10 Stefon Diggs — Maybe he has something left in the tank, and he’s in a good situation with only Terry McLaurin around.

10.3 RJ Harvey — Jeff sniped me on Dak Prescott who I had wanted to pair with Pickens, so I pivoted to yet another RB with upside. Harvey is fast, and Sean Payton used him near the goal line a lot last year.

11.10 Deebo Samuel — I buy into the substation theory of the 49ers anomalously bad run of injuries over the decade, but that cuts both ways. If Mike Evans goes down, maybe Samuel is the top guy for a few weeks before he gets hurt too.

12.3 Jaxson Dart — I actually prefer Bo Nix, but Nix was a few spots lower per ADP, so I thought I’d be more likely to sneak him onto the roster in Round 13.

13.10 Jordan Love — Nix was gone, and so were Patrick Mahomes. Baker Mayfield. Matthew Stafford and Tyler Shough. Love was the last trustworthy QB on the board, and with Dart as my starter, I needed a steady backup.

14.3 Seahawks Defense — I got them in my first draft too. Seems like Mike MacDonald knows what he’s doing on that side of the ball.

15.10 Isaac TeSlaa — He looks like a player, and even though he’s blocked for now, injuries happen unpredictably every year.

16.3 Sean Tucker — Just in case Irving is hurt, and Gainwell was a one-year wonder. Plus, Tucker has looked good when given opportunities.

17.10 Seahawks Kicker — I missed out on Cam Big by two picks, so I stacked my kicker with my defense, two positions that correlate pretty well when a team has a lead.

18.3 Nick Singleton — I got him in the first draft too. I don’t think much of Tony Pollard, and Tyjae Spears can’t stay on the field.

19.10 Emanuel Wilson — For the same reason I passed on Price for Irving, I took a shot at Wilson here. The RB1 position seems somewhat open in Seattle right now, and it’s a good one for whoever wins it.

20.3 Evan Engram — He’s buried in the NFFC TE lists, but I’ll give the entire Broncos offense a mulligan from last year. Something didn’t click, and Engram still has a chance to be a prominent pass catcher.

Roster By Position

QB Jaxson Dart

RB Josh Jacobs/Bucky Irving

WR Ja’Marr Chase/George Pickens/Luther Burden

TE Trey McBride

FLEX: Blake Corum

K Seahawks

D Seahawks

B Kenneth Gainwell/Stefon Diggs/RJ Harvey/Deebo Samuel/Jordan Love/Sean Tucker/Isaac TeSlaa/Nick Singleton/Emanuel Wilson/Evan Engram

We will be livestreaming this draft on Twitter (and probably Youtube) in case you just want to talk shit in the comments. Signup link is here.

Here are the results:

And here’s a link to the stream.

1.4 Jaxon Smith-Njigba — I forgot to set my KDS, so when I got the fourth choice, it defaulted to four. This was unfortunate because I didn’t want ADP4 Puka Nacua, who plays like the receiver version of Marion The Barbarian (RIP), taking a lot more hard contact than your typical wideout. So I pivoted to JSN who rarely takes a big hit and is really the only game in town in Seattle. (Rashid Shaheed is the perfect low-volume field-stretching complement, and Cooper Kupp is 33 now.) I’d expect JSN to regress a fair amount from an all-time efficiency season, but the volume should be there.

2.9 Brock Bowers — Talk about the only game in town. It’s kind of odd he’s going higher than Trey McBride given their respective 2025 seasons, but a healthy Bowers could lead the NFL in targets. I passed on Kenneth Walker, who also slipped, and Emeka Egbuka who pre-draft I thought I might have to hold my nose and take. Either him or McBride.

3.9 Jeremiyah Love — I was hoping he’d fall to me. There are a lot of backs in Arizona, but only one of them was taken with the third overall pick in the draft. You don’t take a running back there to treat him like TreVeyon Henderson.

4.4 Malik Nabers — Erickson knew I was going to do it, he could’ve stopped it, but didn’t. I rewarded him for this restraint by pointing out that he wasn’t a total douchebag. A total douchebag would have taken Nabers solely because he knew I wanted him. Most people are total douchebags.

5.9 Quentin Johnston — Johnston got so much hate for a poor rookie season, but he’s been pretty good the last two, Keenan Allen’s gone, and Mike McDaniel is taking over the offense.

6.4 Bucky Irving — He’s expected to be healthy for training camp, and that’s good enough for me in Round 6. He’d be going in the third round had he never gotten hurt last year.

7.9 Chris Godwin — This was a vibe pick. Mike Evans is gone, Godwin is healthy (for now) and should see plenty of targets in a quality passing offense. He’s still only 30.

8.4 Ricky Pearsall — George Brittle is old, Evans is old, and Pearsall is a former first round pick in his prime that put up good numbers whenever he saw the field last year. I’ll probably get a few shares of him, he seems mispriced to me.

9.9 Jordan Mason — Aaron Jones has a lot of mileage on him, and Mason should have a prominent role either way. I had only Love (a timeshare) and Irving (injured), so I needed someone to plug in if necessary.

10.4 Jaxson Dart — People will say, “But he introduced Trump at a rally,” but you don’t have to sell me on him. I knew he was based, and he’s one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Plus he pairs with Nabers. ADP said I might be able to wait another round, but you don’t blow your best stacking opportunity with a QB you like to preserve the draft capital difference between Rounds 10 and 11.

11.9 Bo Nix — He has top-five QB upside, and given Dart’s fragility (and Team 6 auto-drafting QBs every round), I wanted to grab a good backup.

12.4 Tyler Allgeier — This was a cowardly pick, handcuffing Love with a low-upside plodder on a bad team, but I was thin at RB, and in the unlikely event Love is eased in, I have the team’s starter no matter what.

13.9 Isaac TeSlaa — The guy made great catches for TDs whenever they threw him the ball last year, and Year 2 is when receivers typically break out. Of course, there are no targets for him with all the mouths to feed in that offense, but if someone gets hurt, there’s upside here.

14.4 Seahawks Defense — They were elite last year.

15.9 Sean Tucker — Irving insurance. Of course Kenneth Gainwell is there now, but if Irving isn’t able to make it all the way back, Tucker could be the early-down guy.

16.4 Nick Singleton — He was a beast in college, and the guys ahead of him on the depth chart are nothing special.

17.9 Jaguars Kicker — Cam Big booms it.

18.4 Christian Kirk — I almost wrote Charlie Kirk who should have been named Christian Kirk. Just like Tim Tebow should have been named Christian Ponder, Steve Howe Phil Coke and Pete Rose Mookie Betts. Kirk is Pearsall insurance, and I’m fading Evans and Kittle this year.

19.9 Tyquan Thornton — Someone has to catch Patrick Mahomes’ passes. News that Rashee Rice did something else stupid to get himself suspended or jailed would surprise no one, Travis Kelce is old and living a very weird life and Xavier Worthless weighs like 150 pounds. Thornton showed a spark both in New England and Kansas City, so who knows.

20.4 Evan Engram — I got my backup TE and sneaky Denver stack.

Roster By Position

QB Jaxson Dart

RB Jeremiyah Love/Bucky Irving

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba/Malik Nabers/Quentin Johnston

TE Brock Bowers

FLEX Chris Godwin

K Jaguars

D Seahawks

B Ricky Pearsall/Jordan Mason/Bo Nix/Tyler Allgeier/Isaac TeSlaa/Sean Tucker/Nick Singleton/Christian Kirk/Tyquan Thornton/Evan Engram

Sign up here if you’re interested.

I’m totally unprepared, haven’t even processed the results of the NFL draft yet, but it’s fantasy football, not baseball. I’ll have an ADP-based cheat sheet and a basic refresher on who went where.

Couple other notes about my plan for the fall: I’m going to Vegas in a couple weeks to get my Circa entries (Millions/Survivor), I’ll do a Primetime in August, and I’ll be watching and writing about the games every week. I’ve also taken on a consulting gig for a company trading prediction markets, and that’s already given me some interesting angles on the leagues, not just baseball and football, but NBA, college hoops, tennis, soccer, etc. I was even trading Chinese basketball for a bit.

But, bottom line, expect more emails to delete when I’m back to full speed in August.

I try to make these bold enough that I get most of them wrong. If you’re not getting most wrong, they’re not bold enough! Hits from last year included Bo Bichette outperforming Mookie Betts, Carlos Rodon finishing top-five in CY voting (cheating because technically he finished sixth but crushed his ADP) and Hunter Brown finishing top-five in CY voting (third.) I also had Aroldis Chapman with more saves than Jhoan Duran (they tied.) Misses included Chris Sale finishing as a top-five starter, Jackson Chourio going 30-30-.300, Alex Bregman top-five MVP, Cody Bellinger 40 HR and Tyler Glasnow top-three in CY. Overall, it was a pretty good year as far as bold predictions go.

Also, these are hunches, the explanations for which are largely irrelevant. The relevant information is priced into ADP, so while I’ll justify it one way or another, it’s the prediction itself, not the explanation that matters.

1. Mookie Betts finishes top-10 in NL MVP voting

Betts was the 24th NL hitter by ADP, and of course, a few pitchers could get votes too. I faded Betts, who lost 15 pounds off a 180-pound frame last year due to a spring training illness, and I’m buying back in now that he’s himself again. Shoo-in Hall of Famers typically don’t fall off a cliff at age 33.

2. Adley Rutschman (ADP C11) finishes as a top-five fantasy catcher

This is where he was drafted the last few years, and last year was marred by various injuries. He’s still the same guy and at 28 is in his prime.

3. Kevin Gausman finishes top-five in AL Cy Young votes

This is a slight cheat since Gausman had a strong first outing, but if we were to re-run drafts today with 2026 stats included, he’s still going behind Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown, Max Fried and others. I love veteran pitchers who have figured out their craft, and Gausman is one of them.

4. Teoscar Hernandez cracks 35 homers in 2026

He had only 25 last year and is now 33, but Dodger Stadium is a favorable home run park, Hernandez played through a nagging groin injury and he hits in a lineup where pitchers will often have labored by the time he comes to the plate.

5. George Springer (OF 23) finishes as a top-10 OF again in 2026

Springer has always been fragile, so it’s probably not a coincidence his best year came as the team’s primary DH. Preserve health and the production should continue into his age 36 season a la David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz.

6. At least one of the following veteran pitchers has a top-seven CY finish: Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcantara, Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola, Zac Gallen and Blake Snell.

I made it top seven, not top-five because so many of these guys are missing significant time, but Cole, Bieber, Snell or Rodon might crack top-seven in four months if they return to 100 percent right away.

7. Kenley Jansen (RP 16), Josh Hader (RP 19) or Raisel Iglesias (RP 12) will finish top-three in saves.

I love the old warhorse closers, and I would’ve included Aroldis Chapman were he not drafted so highly this year.

8. Casey Mize (Rd 19) outperforms Eury Perez (Rd 5)

Slow and steady wins the race.

9. Brent Rooker hits 40 HR

Rooker hit 39 two years ago in Oakland Coliseum, only 15 of which were at home, so 40 shouldn’t be a stretch in Sacramento if he has a 70th percentile season.

10. Some of these predictions will be wrong

I’ll pay the cost of never going 10-for-10 to make sure I don’t go 0-for-10.

** injured/dropped

Four shares: None

Three shares: Bryan Woo, Adley Rutschman, Mickey Moniak

Two shares: Paul Skenes, Jose Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero, Mason Miller, Freddie Freeman, Randy Arozarena, Jeremy Pena, Kenley Jansen, Teoscar Hernandez, Matthew Boyd, Austin Wells, Brett Baty, Roki Sasaki, Josh Jung, Garrett Mitchell, Shane Bieber, Jasson Dominguez, Dylan Beavers, Justin Steele

Zero shares: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt, Juan Soto, Tarik Skubal, Ronald Acuna, Elly De La Cruz, Julio Rodriguez, Garrett Crochet, Fernando Tatis, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Tucker, Cristopher Sanchez, Junior Caminero, Jackson Chourio, Edwin Diaz, Jazz Chisholm, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cal Raleigh, Nick Kurtz, Cade Smith, Jhoan Duran, Kyle Schwarber, Francisco Lindor, Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown, Pete Alonso, Wyatt Langford, Devin Williams, Max Fried, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jacob deGrom, Cole Ragans, Yordan Alvarez, Zach Neto, David Bednar, Jesus Luzardo, Shane Langeliers, Freddy Peralta, Manny Machado, Aroldis Chapman, George Kirby, James Wood, Austin Riley, Eury Perez, Daniel Palencia, Ben Rice

Bold = intentional fade

Bold + Italics = hard fade

Write-ups for each league are here: BCL1, BCL2, BCL3 and MAIN.

Links to prior portfolios: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022*, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011**

* Sadly lost forever because it was on my now defunct original web site

** including these links not because anyone will click on them, but to show off my meticulous (bordering on OCD) record keeping