The Cowboys-Eagles matters only because Dallas has a chance in the NFC East, but it’s obvious the Eagles are toast, and even if the Cowboys were to catch the Giants, they’re not going anywhere in the playoffs.

• Kenneth Walker finally had a dud and against his old team. The Chiefs offensive line is banged up, too, but Walker is still going top-five overall were we to re-draft tomorrow.

• Patrick Mahomes and the passing game had no chance. I might buy them low this week ATS, but Walker is the only player capable of an explosive play right now.

• Harrison Butker missed two of three field-goal attempts. I suppose it was the right game to miss them (one in which they had no chance) but, based or not, he’s been shaky this year

• Jaxson Smith-Njigba (12-9-150-1) is setting a crazy pace and not slowing down. He has the most yards in NFL history through seven games. Amazing people let him slide to the middle of the first round this year.

• Emmanuel Wilson (24-100-1) is doing just fine filling in for maybe Zach Charbonnet and maybe Jadarian Price. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays in the mix all year.

• Darnold threw the senseless end zone pick, but on the positive side he also made some good scrambles for first downs.

• The Eagles defense uncharacteristically didn’t show up — Javonte Williams (25-155-1) ran roughshod over them.

• Dak Prescott completed only 15 passes, all of which went to four receivers.

• CeeDee Lamb (12-5-74-2) wasn’t especially efficient, but you’ll take the two touchdowns. George Pickens made a great TD catch, and Gluten-Free (4-4-70-0) is involved more often than not now.

• Saquon Barkley looked good, but re-injured his hamstring and tweaked his back. He plans to play through it, but the Eagles are drawing dead, so there’s no real incentive to force it.

• Makai Lemon (8-7-67-1) had a mini breakout with Devonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks out. Tanner McKee wasn’t great, but he made a few throws, and Lemon showed at least showed something against a bottom-tier defense.

I’m starting this post right after the first wave of games ended, meaning I just watched the Giants epic overtime win in Houston. They’re now 4-2-1, two games ahead of the Cowboys who they already beat head to head — have to be the favorite in the NFC East now .

• J.J. McCarthy made some great throws under pressure in Houston against an aggressive defense, but more surprisingly he didn’t make the crucial mistake. If he plays like this, there won’t be any controversy when Jaxson Dart returns — McCarthy would be the starter. But that’s a long way away.

• Fantasy-wise McCarthy loses out a bit because the Giants like to bring Jameis Winston in for QB sneaks at the goal line. But McCarthy’s not afraid to sling it down the field, and Malik Nabers is a top-five real life wideout.

• Cam Skattebo had a monster game, first getting an absurd penalty for running over a DB with his helmet, then taking a fake QB sneak pitch on fourth down for a huge gain, running over more defenders for the go-ahead TD, then breaking free for a 42-yard run in overtime to set up the game-winning score. Tyrone Tracy left the game with an injury, and it was actually Devin Singletary who closed it out. It looked like Skattebo got hurt on his OT run, so keep an eye out, but the fumble-benching is behind him.

• The Giants defense played great, holding CJ Stroud to a meager 153 yards on 28 attempts. No idea what’s going on with Nico Collins — he was almost invisible the entire game, while Marvin Harrison caught a TD, but couldn’t make some tough catches in big moments late.

• The Steelers are 5-2, tied for first place with the Browns in a division that’s truly up for grabs.

• Jaylen Warren is a top-10 real life and fantasy back. But everyone knows that by now.

• The Saints looked okay, except that they couldn’t run the ball to save their lives, and it’s hard to maintain drives that way.

• The 5-2 Browns specialize in life and death games in the fourth quarter, doesn’t really matter who the opponent is. DeShaun Watson aired it out more this game with KC Concepcion (10-8-129-0) and Harold Fannin (9-6-91-0) getting the bulk of the chances instead of Denzel Boston. Concepcion would have had an even bigger game had he not dropped a perfect deep ball too.

• Quinshon Judkins (17-96-2) finally got going. I had left him for dead.

• Tony Pollard (25-129-3, 3-3-36-0) had a massive game, and probably in your lineup too, thanks to the byes. I’m not clear on what the Titans’ purpose is though.

• I used the Colts +6.5 in Circa, and they did exactly what they needed to and not an inch more. Might as well bring in Anthony Richardson at this point, even if he’s high af.

• Good timing for Jordan Mason to return just as Aaron Jones got hurt. If you drafted both, they couldn’t have been more generous to you.

• Kyler Murray isn’t the answer, and Justin Jefferson is paying the price. If the favored Seahawks win tonight, the Vikings will be the last undefeated team standing, but pretty sure the 1972 Dolphins aren’t sweating it.

• A lot of people had the Jets in Survivor today. As someone who got bounced by the Chargers, I shouldn’t talk, but the Jets are no-go.

• Ollie Gordon (25-103-1) was worth every cent of FAAB you spent on him.

• Malik Willis always struck me as a player. I know he’s been bad thus far, but I wouldn’t be surprised if today’s game is more indicative of what you get going forward.

• Braelon Allen (17-104-0, 7-6-30-0) was the bell cow you wished you drafted in Breece Hall. Omar Cooper was the productive receiver you wished you drafted in Garrett Wilson (3-2-26-0). And Mason Taylor (6-5-62-2) was who you thought Kenyon Sadiq would be after his breakout a few weeks ago.

• Baker Mayfield completed seven passes for 64 yards in his return. Sometimes you’re just not needed.

• Bucky Irving (24-106-2) is all the way back. He’s a top-10 running back, easily ahead of Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown and other assorted flat tires.

• The Panthers never came back from the bye.

• The Ravens are in last place after losing the second half to the Bengals 35-0.

• Tee Higgins (7-6-148-1) outproduced Ja’Marr Chase’s modest 7-5-62-1. Chase usually goes off against the Ravens and hasn’t really been his dominant self this year.

• Zay Flowers is a first half superstar.

• Christian McCaffrey would have had an epic day had he not gotten injured. He returned in the second half, but he clearly wasn’t himself. Kaelon Black looked good in his place until he fumbled on consecutive carries.

• It’s hilarious owner Jed York, who solicited a prostitute in a trailer this offseason, was finally allowed to attend a game, and it was the first one they lost. Real owner!

• I had some prop bets that George Kittle wrecked with that game-ending fumble. The game was basically over anyway, but he killed 25 yards and a potential TD of garbage time. (To be fair, the Niners would probably have kicked the FG anyway.)

• That just reminded me, the Saints jumping offsides on the Steelers game-sealing FG also cost me garbage time, and my Steelers kicker an extra three points too.

• The Falcons skill players should have had monster games, but the Niners’ three turnovers allowed them to slow down.

• The Rams were obviously going to kill the Raiders. But then again they were obviously going to kill the Cardinals last week. (One silver lining I neglected to mention is I would have used them vs AZ in Survivor for sure, so I’ve finally let myself off the hook for taking the Chargers Week 1.)

• The Broncos were lucky to get through the tough part of their schedule at 4-2, but this week Bo Nix looked like an NFL quarterback and the team looked like a juggernaut, even without Patrick Surtain.

• Everyone’s favorite sleeper Jonah Coleman looked pretty good, but it’s a three-headed monster in the Denver backfield now.

• A couple weeks ago, it looked like Brock Bowers was going to lap Trey McBride despite the missed time. And suddenly last two weeks Bowers disappeared and McBride is back with a vengeance. I’ll never understand why some teams are suddenly unable to get the ball to their best players.

• Why did the Cardinals sign Tyler Allgeier if Bam Knight would be the fill-in for Jeremiyah Love?

• Josh Jacobs looked pretty good to me. Heartening to see because I have him on two of my teams.

• Packers-Lions was a coin flip. Lots of random things like turnovers, missed field-goals, roughing the passer nonsense, drops, Lions going for it excessively on fourth down, Packers jumping offsides to seal the game. Save the effort and rock paper scissors for it next time.

• Nothing is more irritating than “The Flavor Zone”.

My Picks

Colts +6.5 at Vikings

The Colts are a low-key doormat, down there with the dregs of the league, while the Vikings have a good defense and are 5-0. The Colts are on the road and not even getting a full TD, either. So why am I taking them? Because the line isn’t even seven, the Colts just lost to the winless Titans, and I’m betting the Vikings, coming off a bye (which is usually good) will not take them as seriously as the Colts take the Vikings.

Ravens -1.5 vs Bengals

I don’t know whether Lamar Jackson is playing, but it seems like he might based on the line, and in any event, I like buying the Ravens low off the loss to the Browns.

Lions -3 vs Packers

The Packers looked great the last couple weeks, and the Lions defense isn’t good. But this line is slightly too big — why not 1.5 or 2.5, why three? Because there is something off.

Rams -4 at Raiders

The Rams just lost at home to the Cardinals and now might be without Davante Adams AND Puka Nacua. But the Rams will run the ball, and Matthew Stafford will throw it to five tight ends. I’m buying low on the team itself even if the line isn’t low at all.

Cowboys -3.5 at Eagles

Monday night road favorite with no defense who got worked by the Packers last week and the Bucs the week before. Perfect. Lay the wood.

• Drake Maye played a good game except for that end zone pick, something that’s a bad habit for him. It would have been nice to get A.J. Brown going more, but Brown still looked rusty, though not quite as rusty as last week when he narrowly eclipsed an ancient urn for the all-time record.

• Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t do much on the ground, but he went 5-5-93-1 through the air, thanks to a last-second catch and run at the end of the half the Bears opted not to defend.

• Hunter Henry (7-7-71-) was Maye’s top target, as Maye barely looked for his wideouts this game. Brown (6-3-48-0 led the position.)

• Corey Kiner had four uneventful carries, while TreVeyon Henderson had only three. Henderson is a timeshare handcuff now, which means IF the starter goes down, he’d STILL be in a timeshare.

• Caleb Williams looked pretty smooth, and he’s now targeting his more dynamic receivers. Colston Loveland (12-7-69-1) in particular saw a lot of work, but Luther Burden (4-4-130-1) had one of the most efficient days in NFL history. Even Rome Odunze (5-4-69-0) got involved, while Kalif Raymond had zero catches on two targets, and Cole Kmet got seriously injured.

• D’Andre Swift (22-78-1, 4-4-12-0) is quietly having a nice year. I used to think of him as injury prone, but he’s been one of the more reliable backs the last couple years.

• Ben Johnson, up six with 1:39 left, made an ultra aggressive decision to attempt a 58-yard field goal. Normally the FG is the cowardly thing, but not from the 40 yard line when the other team has no timeouts and still needs a TD. It worked out — even average kickers like Cairo Santos can drill 58-yarders these days — but what a gamble. Had Santos missed it, the Pats would have gotten the ball at the 47 with plenty of time left for a game-winning TD. Once he made it, the game was over though, and the Pats obliged Bears bettors by shrewdly opting for the field goal once in range and losing by six instead of two.

• Jayden Daniels made some good throws, but the 49ers bottled up his running.

• The Redskins had no viable running game, which is why Daniels had to attempt 40 throws.

• Terry McLaurin got hurt again and is probably out for the year. You’d think that would be an upgrade for Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams, but former first rounder Treylon Burks saw six targets and has been making plays all year. Also tight end Chig Okonkwo (7-7-69-0) got involved.

• Mike Evans re-injured his Achilles and sat out the second half after going 5-3-94-0 — that’s why he’s a Hall of Famer, he puts up the numbers BEFORE getting hurt. It doesn’t seem that serious, but he’s old, and teams lie, so you never know.

• George Kittle (8-5-69-0) had a good game, but Christian McCaffrey (16-64-2, 10-9-53-0) might have been the biggest beneficiary of the WR shortage.

• Brock Purdy did what he had to — no turnovers, two sacks taken.

I don’t mind the craziness, in fact the end of the Giants game was exciting. And now they’re STILL 3-2-1, STILL in first place, with the Cowboys looking terrible Sunday night, the Redskins big underdogs against the 49ers and the Eagles probably drawing dead. The Giants without Jaxson Dart, without Brian Burns, without Cam Skattebo getting the ball these days, with McCarthy as their QB!

Meanwhile the Rams really did lose at home to Arizona and are now in last place at 2-4. No one is happier about this than the proxy for the guy in the Circa Grandissimo (100K buy-in, $550K of equity at kickoff) who submitted his Rams pick to the proxy, but the proxy neglected to submit to Circa which resulted in a “No Pick!” Real man has a No Pick on 550K!

• Midway through the Texans game, I built this parlay at 27:1. Do you see the problem with it?

Yes, Parker Washington failed to get 70 yards (he had 64) with two balls hitting off his outstretched hands in the final drives. It was the perfect gameflow, and yet that’s why these pay out the big bucks — any small miss can sink you.

• Woody Marks got most of the work, but Jahwar Jordan ran with more juice and scored the TD. The Jaguars had not given up 40 yards to a rusher the entire year, and the Texans had two.

• CJ Stroud threw a terrible end zone pick late, but otherwise played flawlessly. He reminded me of Joe Montana as a rookie, and he’s playing with that kind of vision and touch again three years later. The NFL is strange.

• The key to freeing up Jaylin Noel was acquiring Marvin Harrison.

• Parker Washington failed to get 70 yards despite seeing 11 targets. He’s a good player, but reports of his superstardom might have been exaggerated.

• Trevor Lawrence doesn’t pass the eye test for me, but he sure passes the stats test over the last season and a half.

• Caleb Williams looked pretty good in his return, and he finally targeted Luther Burden and Colston Loveland more than Kalif Raymond.

• Kyle Pitts (7-5-60-2) finally went off, and I have to imagine there’s more from which that came with only Drake London ahead of him on the target chart. Jahan Dotson made some plays (I actually started him in a league), but he saw only five targets.

• The Tyler Huntley Ravens are basically the Jalen Hurts Eagles.

• DeShaun Watson took five sacks and didn’t throw a TD, but that’s how you care-take in a low-scoring game. The Derrick Henry fumble didn’t hurt, either.

• It’s not surprising the Titans beat the Colts who are a low-key true doormat.

• Danny Dimes not only threw two picks, he took six sacks for 35 lost yards. He’s regressed to the Giants version.

• Jonathan Taylor seems capable of earning his lofty draft slot even in this offense, but what happened to Josh Downs? Tyler Warren was out, and 40 YO Keenan Allen gets 11-8-82-0. Downs is toast because if he ever goes off now it’ll be on your bench.

• Why did the Pats give up that push-ATS field goal to the Jets? I would have been 4-0 heading into Sunday night (I had the Cowboys unfortunately.)

• I don’t see the point of the Geno Smith Jets. Why bother?

• We need one of those fantasy PTs to explain the “kinetic chain” between AJ Brown’s ankle and his hands.

• JJ McCarthy had 243 yards passing in the fourth quarter and led the team with 26 rushing yards. Obviously, it was a favorable situation to come in during a blowout and ball out without conscience, but you could see why he was drafted so early a couple years ago.

• So much for Najee Harris getting the start. Not sure what to do with Cam Skattebo going forward, but he’s better than Harris and the other two scrubs.

• Malik Nabers (15-12-165-0) and Isaiah Likely (11-6-99-1) are studs. Especially Nabers who is listed at 200 pounds, but plays like 220 with 4.4 speed. And he’s probably still not 100 percent back from last year’s ACL tear.

• The Giants threw three picks and took five sacks, the Saints threw none and took none. That’s how you lose when Tyler Shough throws for only 144 yards.

• Philly’s defense is really good, but not even the Steel Curtain could carry that offense.

• The Panthers are a nice narrow tree now — Bryce Young to Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan with Chuba Hubbard getting all the carries.

• It was weird when Mike McCarthy went into the medical tent. It was like a customer trying to use the employee rest room.

• The Steelers are probably not good, but they’re 4-2, and Germie Bernard (12-11-87-1) is Rodgers’ guy opposite DK Metcalf (15-11-93-0) now, even though Bernard made a horrendous decision after catching a would-be third-down conversion and losing two yards (and the first down).

• Jalon Daniels is the NFC’s Tyler Huntley. I sat Chris Godwin in one league for Cody White and Dotson with the idea that Godwin had no upside whatsoever with Daniels, and I was right, even though White got me a zero.

• The Rams took the Cardinals lightly, but the Cardinals took the Rams seriously.

• Davante Adams appeared to have hurt himself in the second half, catching his hamstring or knee and hobbling off the field.

• Kyren Williams and Blake Corum were back in a 50/50 timeshare without notice.

• Good thing I backed up Jeremiyah Love with Tyler Allgeier.

• The Chargers are the AFC Eagles with Tanner McKee. They actually had a chance to cover, but Keandre Lambert-Smith fumbled just to teach the lesson one more time to those in need of remedial ATS 101.

• Of course Ladd McConkey left early yet again, this time with a head injury. He has NFL speed and athleticism, but average durability. And by that I don’t mean average durability for an NFL player but the NFL durability of the average man.

• Quentin Johnston had a 57-yard catch which was nice, but I also saw him drop at least one of his other two targets.

• There were surely some people who drafted Omarion Hampton over Kenneth Walker.

• The Chiefs are the Eagles of 2024, with Walker playing the role of Saquon Barkley. Xavier Worthless (7-7-73-0) had a good game, but you don’t need to throw much to beat the Chargers.

• Say what you want about the Raiders, but the cover was epic.

• You could argue the Raiders made the Bills pay for shutting down Bowers — after all, they scored 30 points and Kirk Cousins threw for 313 yards, but the last TD was garbage time, and the Bills defense is average at best.

• Ashton Jeanty (10-22-0, 6-4-36-0) can’t seem to make an explosive play.

• James Cook (22-95-1, 3-3-58-0) finally did some damage in the passing game, but saw only three targets.

• The Packers-Cowboys was billed as a shootout, but both defenses looked pretty good. The Packers would have had more points had Matthew Golden and Christian Watson not dropped TD passes, but Jordan Love was under pressure all game, and they couldn’t run the ball to save their lives. Josh Jacobs, assuming no release of a video showing him body-slamming his girlfriend, should be a significant upgrade.

• Dak Prescott was out of sync the whole game. I don’t know if it was the pressure or coverage, but nothing was easy. Usually you see CeeDee Lamb running wide open in the middle of the field for chunk plays all game. Indcidentally, not counting the injury game, Lamb has had 42 targets in his last two.

• Ryan Flournoy (no flour, i.e., Gluten Free) would have instant, reliable value should George Pickens or Lamb get hurt. I even started Gluten Free in a league.

• Brandon Aubrey is a low-key bust this year. It wasn’t his fault the Cowboys only had one PAT and went for two, down 10, but between not being used that much and half the league turning into peak Aubrey, there was no point in wasting a 13th-round pick.

This is where I stand after five weeks, definitely drawing dead for Q2 and probably for the year, but Q3 and Q4 are still alive, and even if you don’t win anything, the challenge of getting in sync with the league is worthwhile in itself.

My Picks

Patriots -7 vs Jets

I hope AJ Brown is back, but either way the Jets were on the ropes until the Browns fumbled the game away, and I like selling teams off weak wins.

Browns +5.5 vs Ravens

Lamar Jackson isn’t playing, and the Browns are scrappy enough at home to give a game to their division rivals with a backup QB.

Bears pick ‘em at Falcons

The Bears got destroyed last week which makes them a good buy low against a Falcons team that lost in overtime.

Raiders +4.5 vs Bills

This line moved up to 5.5 in some places which you don’t like to see, but I like selling the Bills off an emotional Monday night thriller and buying the Raiders low at home where the Bills have to travel across the country for an afternoon game.

Cowboys +1 at Packers

I have a lot of Packers to win NFC North shares, but I love buying the Cowboys on 10-days rest off an embarrassing home loss to the Jalon Daniels Bucs and selling the Packers after their blowout win over the rival Bears.

• JSN is always open, catches everything, and he rarely takes a big hit. It’s hard to pass on Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, but it feels like he’ll be an early first-rounder for the next five years.

• Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed finally got some targets, but didn’t do much. Shaheed almost had a second big catch, but he trapped it against the ground.

• Emmanuel Wilson is the back for now, but Zach Charbonnet and eventually Jadarian Price will be back, and George Holani scored the TD. There’s not much upside in this backfield.

• JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey ran with some juice, but it’s tough going against a stout defense when you have no passing game at all. Harvey especially looked good and led the team in receiving with a modest 3-41-0 line.

• The Broncos receivers are rough. Apparently Jaylen Waddle got banged up, but returned, while Courtland Sutton mustered only three targets.

• Jason Myers’ missed 47-yarder loomed large in an overtime loss, as did Shaheed’s fumble, but this one’s on Darnold.

• I’ve mocked the Puka Nacua 1.4 drafters all year, but when he’s healthy this kind of game is in the range of outcomes. It actually wasn’t a great real life game for him — 138 yards on 24 targets is poor — but 24-17-128-1 is 35.8 fantasy points. He’s still lowering his shoulder too much for my tastes, but no arguing how much of a beast he is, or whether he’s paired with the right QB in the right system.

• Davante Adams (7-5-51-2) was non-existent until the middle of the first quarter, but of course he catches two more TDs. Adams is already tied with Larry Fitzgerald for sixth all-time in receiving TDs and moving up the list.

• Kyren Williams wasn’t especially efficient but he always passes the eye test for me, scored a TD and had six catches. Blake Corum is still just the backup (five carries) though he did have a 34-yard reception.

• Josh Allen had 121 rushing yards and a rushing TD. He’s such a good runner in part because he’s so calm — he’s not afraid to get hit, can wait until the last second to change direction and make defenders in the open field miss. The one interception he threw was essentially an arm punt on third and long.

• James Cook fumbled twice and lost one, but otherwise ran well — 111 yards and two scores. But they just don’t use him in the passing game, and while he hits the hole hard and fast, I didn’t see much wiggle at the second level, like he’s just maxxing out north and south. Maybe that’s just a one off as he is quick.

• With DJ Moore out, it’s impossible to trust any of the Bills receivers including Dalton Kincaid. Avoid.

• It’s a pleasure to watch a game between teams like these. There are too many Eagles-Colts-Chargers type offenses that drag the viewer into the mud.

The Giants-Redskins endgame has been covered elsewhere, but it was funny because (as you all know) the number of timeouts remaining is indicated on the broadcast by small white blocks next to each team’s abbreviation and point total. They start with three white blocks, and as they use the timeouts, the blocks disappear, leaving empty black spaces. Both teams had zero white blocks (only dark empty spaces), and as the Redskins were running the play, it was so strange what they were doing I wondered to myself, “Did the broadcast change to black blocks to indicate timeouts?” When reality doesn’t match your assumptions, it’s natural to question them, but apparently, no, it was still the white blocks, and the Redskins just ran that play with no timeouts like the realest team ever.

• I went 1-3-1 in Circa, and it hurt. The Dolphins, on the verge of an epic backdoor cover, missed the PAT to push! FFS! The Chargers (I know, I know), were up 17-10 in the fourth, getting 3.5, and they would have covered anyway as Denver ran out the clock, but a false start on the Broncos pushed them back just far enough that they didn’t seal it with a final first down. The Broncos tried to draw the Chargers offsides on 4th-and-2, failed and kicked the chip-shot to go up six. Just fucking jump offsides! My only good pick was the Packers, and that encapsulates the perfect ATS team — expected to be good, looking bad, needing the win, playing at home against a rival with a backup QB that’s probably overrated.

• The Eagles losing another soul crusher has to doom them for the year, right? I ask because they are STILL 33/34 cents on Kalshi to win the division, behind only the 2-3 Cowboys (38/39) who just got worked at home by the 0-4 Bucs with their undrafted free-agent rookie QB. The Eagles also had their Hall of Fame tackle abruptly retire, traded their starting center, are missing their starting, backup and third string backs and their top receiver. And yet they are still only 2:1 to win the division!

• The Eagles offense has long been unwatchable, but the Jaguars are almost as painful. Parker Washington saved them with a highlight reel catch on fourth down. Brian Thomas is the AFC’s Marvin Harrison, and now that Harrison is in the AFC, the Jaguars have demoted him below sixth-round rookie Josh Cameron.

• The Packers have apparently realized you can just throw bombs to your blazing fast high pedigree wideouts. Who knew?

• The Bears offense apparently misses Kyle Monangai more than Caleb Williams.

• David Montgomery got hurt, but Woody Marks was a little disappointing in a game the Texans won 26-3. They’re a weird team that just got weirder with the Harrison trade.

• The Titans serve no purpose except for that Dike. He brightens my Mondays as I write this article.

• It brings me joy to see Samaje Perine outproduce Chase Brown. I faded Brown at cost, and while I’m still largely drawing dead, and it makes no difference, schadenfreude is all I have left.

• Joe Burrow had a soft four-TD game — only 190 yards, and aside from the jump ball to Ja’Marr Chase, no big plays.

• Ollie Gordon was worth every cent, but Malik Willis does not check down. De’Von Achane almost certainly would’ve been a bust at cost even had he stayed healthy.

• Brock Bowers is earning his keep despite missing the first two games. I bet NO on him being the top TE once he was hurt, but he’s running down Trey McBride right now, and Isaiah Likely might have tweaked something in overtime.

• Ashton Jeanty is getting further down the Trent Richardson career path than he’d like.

• Drake Maye put up 374 yards and four TDs (plus 25 rushing and a rushing TD) without A.J. Brown and his starting left tackle. If the Bills (three-point dogs) lose to the Rams tonight the Pats are in first place.

• When I saw a Pats RB fumble, I assumed it was Rhamondre Stevenson, but it was actually Corey Kiner. Now that TreVeyon Henderson is hurt, Stevenson should have a large share in what looks like an offense that’s back on track.

• I drafted Aaron Jones about two rounds after ADP in one league just because he fell and immediately regretted it. What possible upside does a 31-year old running back have? Apparently plenty. Sometimes the market knows better than you do.

• I had left Kyler Murray for dead, but I did the same with Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, and those corpses reanimated in more favorable circumstances. Why not Murray?

• Everyone was excited about the Saints when they played the Lions tough in Detroit, then beat the Ravens in Baltimore, but they’ve lost three in a row and are now tied with the Bucs for last place.

• The Jets fumbled away the game, but the Browns fumbled it right back.

• A couple commenters suggested I use the Steelers with 10 days rest and the Colts coming off the London game in Circa. They were correct.

• The Colts are like the Eagles — unwatchable.

• Jaylen Warren is channeling peak Christian McCaffrey.

• With Roman Wilson and Michael Pittman out, Germie Bernard went 9-6-80-0, notable especially because Aaron Rodgers rarely trusts rookies.

• I complained about Jameis Winston’s play in the first half after he lost a fumble, but he was legitimately great in the second.

• As much as people are harping on the Redskins’ clock mismanagement, the Giants had that game won but for the Cam Skattebo fumble, and keep in mind they missed a field goal on the opening drive of overtime too.

• Malik Nabers (20-11-121-1) is coming off an ACL tear, playing with a bad shoulder and a backup QB, but just looks faster and more physical than anyone who’s guarding him.

• Isaiah Likely (13-11-94-2) is firmly established as a top-three TE now. As I mentioned it seemed like he got banged up in overtime, but there was no official announcement about it.

• The Broncos are the AFC’s Eagles. Unwatchable.

• Kimani Vidal is the Chargers best back. Tre’ Harris getting hurt while being the only option left is retarded, as is Ladd McClunkey suiting up and not playing. What a farce.

• The game I was most wrong about was Lions-Cardinals. The Lions annihilated them, though ARSB was relatively quiet for the third straight game. Jahmyr Gibbs (25-151-2, 6-5-69-0) was not.

• At least I started Jacoby Brissett over Justin Herbert in the Primetime. I drafted Herbert in the 10th and Brissett in the 20th. Not that Brissett wasn’t terrible in real life.

• Maybe Marvin Harrison was a world-class decoy. Like Harrison, it seems Jeremiyah Love got drafted by the wrong team. You only go all-in for the back when you’re contending, and no team was less likely to win its division (given the other teams in it) than the Cardinals this year.

• I went to bed before the end of 49ers-Seahawks. You’d think I’d have wanted to stay up for it, but it just seemed like too much fumble randomness, and I chose to find out in the morning.

• Sam Darnold looked bad, taking too many sacks and throwing picks. JSN hurt his ankle but returned to the game and looked as quick and smooth as ever on his 38-yard TD catch. But besides JSN the Seahawks offense is also unwatchable.

• Mike Evans is neither injured nor over the hill. Christian McCaffrey ran hard, especially on the TD run, but the volume continues to be modest compared to his historical workloads. I suppose that’s a good thing, given the 49ers are 5-0 and having beaten the Rams and Seahawks already.

• The quarterback Michael Penix most reminds me of is ironically peak Tua. He’s a smallish lefty that zips the ball around nicely when he has time, but under pressure he’s fragile and frazzled. And apparently — the edited broadcast didn’t pick this up — he got hurt at the end of the game, and Tua Vagovailoa fittingly threw the game-ending pick!

• Mark Andrews had a bad game — he lost a fumble that was returned for a TD early and didn’t come down with a couple balls on key downs. I guess the Ravens paid him and trust him, but he seems like a weak link, and it looks even worse given what Likely is doing for the Giants.

There are two components to picking NFL games, figuring out each team’s true baseline and having a feel for whether it will play above or below it in a given week. Because the public markets do a good job of measuring the former, most of the skill resides in the latter IMO. Is this team more likely to play its 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th or 90th percentile game against that opponent under these circumstances. No one knows, of course, but there are patterns to it, rhythms that don’t repeat exactly but which you can hear if you have a good ear, if you give it enough of your attention.

This Week’s Picks:

(Paywall to give something extra to paying subscribers, but not because you should EVER pay for picks. They are NOT worth it.)

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• Daniels might have played himself into a career on the backup circuit. He was poised for an undrafted rookie and didn’t make too many mistakes.

• Irving (21-165-1, 3-2-10-0) looked like the guy you drafted in the second round last year — fast, elusive, good vision. And he’s obviously healthy for now.

• Emeka Egbuka (9-6-38-0) salvaged his day with a 14-yard rushing TD. Chris Godwin (3-3-37) not so much.

• CeeDee Lamb hurt his quad, apparently it’s not serious, but tell that to his owners getting 2.9 points from their best player heading into the week.

• George Pickens (13-9-130-1) showed he’s a first-round pick anytime Lamb is out, but it’s hard for Pickens when Lamb’s healthy and getting 21 targets.

• I started Ryan Flournoy (4-3-90-0) in the Steak League this week, and that was good enough. I’m gonna start calling him “gluten-free” as his name begins with Flour and No.

• Javonte Williams (12-45-1, 3-2-17-0) will plod his way to fantasy relevance every week, so long as he stays healthy.

• Dak Prescott still managed 316 yards without Lamb for much of the game, but I don’t think he’s good enough to carry the league’s worst defense very far — hence the Redskins/Giants bets.

• Sucks if you reached for Brandon Aubrey to see him get only one point, and Dallas even went for two, down eight, in the fourth quarter.

• I love based Todd Bowles, but up two scores almost halfway through the fourth quarter, you gotta kick the chip shot to go up 17. It didn’t matter in the end, but the Cowboys were knocking on the door.

That was $10 entry at 114:1, but I won a couple others, and the game was mildly profitable.

• Jahmyr Gibbs is great, but if we were to draft ROS, it’s 50/50 between him and Robinson now that Atlanta’s offense has stabilized. What’s crazy is Brian Robinson had three TDs and 62 yards of his own.

• Drake London (6-5-96-0) had a good game, given the negative game script for a receiver. Even Kyle Pitts (3-3-47-0) made a cameo. I have to think Pitts will be involved more, especially when Penix needs to throw more than 20 times.

• The Falcons defense had only two sacks, but they got a lot of pressure on Tyler Shough.

• Shough looked good to me — tough under pressure, resourceful, didn’t make a lot of mistakes. But his offensive line and running game were non-existent, and it’s hard to thrive under those conditions.

• Alvin Kamara scored twice on the ground, but did most of his damage as a receiver (7-5-35-0). He’s a poor man’s Christian McCaffrey until Travis Achane comes back.

• Chris Olave (12-8-116-0) is automatic in this offense, and Juwan Johnson (8-6-59-0) is a top-10 TE. Devaughn Vele (9-6-54-1) is also a trusted target, and his production is apparently not a fluke so far, but he obviously stands to lose the most if/when Jordyn Tyson comes back.

• Nice to be on the right side of a cover the entire game. I also bought ATL to win the division at 7c two weeks ago, now trading at 39c as the favorite.

I sat a worthless Justin Herbert for an even more worthless Daniel Jones. It’s worse when you might have had something. On one of my other teams I sat Kyren Williams. Chuba Hubbard was fine, Aaron Jones was okay, but Cam Skattebo did almost nothing. You just can’t sit 36 points from your fourth-round pick and expect to be there at the end of the year.

So my only move is to detach emotionally, not be upset about fantasy football. I’ll make my moves, set my lineups. but not going to feel bad or have regrets. Too bad, I should have taken Chris Olave instead of pivoting to Achane when he surprisingly fell to me. It’s fantasy football, that’s how it goes sometimes.

• I went 3-1 in Circa, pending ATL tonight. The Panthers were one of those teams that felt right and was right in a game that went more or less the way you thought. I had a combo bet lined up at like 125 to 1 on which I nearly pulled the trigger with McMillan at 10 catches for 140 and a score, combined with Bryce Young for 275 and two scores, and Goff for 300, but two scores. Goff threw only one, so I’m glad I saved the $10. That’s the issue with those crazy multi-leg parlays — you can get done in by a small detail even when the game goes almost perfectly.

• Jahmyr Gibbs had his first dud, and by dud I mean 17.7 points. The team that gave up 1,000 yards to Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift did a good job on Gibbs.

• Jameson Williams finally broke out, leading the team with 102 yards, but no TD, Isaac TeSlaa had almost the same line, and Sam LaPorta had 13 targets, eight catches and the TD. ARSB had his second dud, and by that I mean 11 targets and 15.5 points.

• Bryce Young passes the eye test for me. That midget moves well in the pocket out of necessity to see what’s going on. McMillan (16-14-192-2) was everywhere, catching everything, but Young was also delivering the ball to him on target and in stride.

• Hubbard was so obvious in hindsight, it’s painful I don’t have more shares. Brooks was always a psyop, and Hubbard was the fallback and likely bell cow.

• The Colts-Commanders game was bad, but I had the Colts in Circa, and bought them, down 6-0, for 53 cents and also comboed (parlayed) them with the under the moment Marcus Mariota got hurt.

• The third stringer, whatever his name is, wasn’t bad. He had the guts to chuck it downfield and on balance acquitted himself well.

• Danny Dimes is bad. He salvaged the fantasy day somewhat with the rushing TD, but there’s nothing downfield, he’s not accurate, he holds the ball too long and turns it over.

• I lost money on some Josh Downs receptions props. I figured he’d get 10 targets with Keenan Allen and Alec Pierce out, but after catching three passes in the first half, he yielded to LaQuon Treadwell and Ashton Dulin. Never again.

• Jonathan Taylor didn’t do much, but somehow finished with two TDs and 95 rushing yards. Oddly he disappeared for a key stretch in the first half, including for a fourth and short, but no one ever mentioned him being hurt.

• I should have used the Pats in Circa. It was such an obvious setup.

• I didn’t watch much of the game, but I guess Drake Maye righted the ship despite the scrubby receivers and pedestrian play from the backs.

• I’ve said it before, but James Cook was not a good first-round pick. Where’s the passing game involvement or the volume? the TDs are nice, but he shares them with Josh Allen.

• DJ Less is a season killer. If you’re gonna serve a virtual zero, just be out for the year. You can’t come back the next week and do it again. And late bloomer Keon Coleman (7-6-116-1) looked like the second coming of Davante Adams.

• Dalton Kincaid was probably a psyop for which I partially fell. Even if he goes off again, it’ll probably be from the bench. Only the startable fantasy points really count.

• Now I remember why I didn’t invest in Garrett Wilson or Breece Hall — they play for the Jets.

• The Bears were more true to form with Tyson Bagent — Rome Odunze (7-6-94-0), Luther Burden (6-4-63-0) and Colston Loveland (9-6-57-0) were the featured pass catchers in the offense. Monangai went bananas on 30 carries before hurting his thumb, while D’Andre Swift found himself in the Blake Corum role.

• I had the Jags +2.5 in Circa, and that was good enough by one yard. If the Bengals convert that fourth down and score, they definitely would have gone for two and, if successful, would have won 25-22.

• What’s up with Parker Washington having three targets, one catch and seven yards? I thought he was everyone’s obvious breakout guy? It’s funny, Jeff Erickson and I made a bet on the podcast last week, he had Washington and I had Rashee Rice, rest of season.

• The Jaguars spread the ball around so much, it’s like the Bills. Hope you got some Strange Sunday.

• The injuries this year are out of control. It’s worse than ever. Ja’Marr Chase was nearly decapitated, and of course it happened in the first quarter.

• Tee Higgins had a big day, but now he’s hurt too with an adductor injury. The league is becoming a joke.

• I didn’t even realize Burrow had 428 yards until I checked just now. Crazy. I guess they couldn’t run it at all, and game flow conspired for him to have 54 attempts. Maybe he hits 500 if Chase were healthy.

• The Giants game was amazing except for the rushing yardage prop bets on lost on Jeremyiah Love who seemed to hurt his ankle at one point either late first half or early second, but either way Tyler Allgeier’s carcass was on the field way too much. I thought we were done with that after last week’s breakout, but I saw an interview with Love after the game saying they are going to spell him to keep him fresh.

• The Giants pass defense was great. Trey McBride had 31 yards on 12 targets. That’s not even a good rate for rushing attempts. Two weeks ago I mocked anyone who, like me, drafted Brock Bowers a round ahead of McBride, but no one’s mocking that now.

• I’ll still mock people for taking Marvin Harrison ahead of Michael Wilson. That was retarded.

• Jameis Winston had two insanely stupid picks, but also delivered some quality downfield throws, a couple of which were while he was on the move. I don’t know how they can win with him, but if they beat the Redskins with whatshisname they’ll be 4-1.

• Malik Nabers (7-6-112-1) is a top-five real life receiver, but he’s playing through a shoulder injury and without his QB. I hope he can gut it out, but I’m dubious.

• Isaiah Likely (12-7-66-0) had a modest day, but Winston looks for him constantly. Malachi Fields made a couple plays and looks like a player to me.

• Skattebo ran hard, but it was tough going, and he wasn’t involved much in the passing game.

• For the second straight week, the Giants held on against an NFL doormat who were knocking on the door for the win inside the five yard line. The score only looks lopsided because the game ended on an epic pick-six.

• Arvell Reese (nine tackles, one pick) looked like LT out there, flying around and hitting everyone.

• As a Giants fan, and someone who bought 300 shares of the Giants to win the division at just under 10 cents, I was happy to see the Eagles collapse. It’s hard to lose up 10 in the fourth quarter with the ball on your opponents’ five yard line, but they managed it.

• Kyren Williams (16-80-2, 13-10-67-0) has really left Corum in the dust the last two weeks.

• Puka Nacua (12-9-125-0, 1 rushing TD) was more or less himself at least for this week. Davante Adams (9-4-32-0) got the targets, but not the production.

• Jalen Hurts had 93 passing yards on 27 attempts, took four sacks and lost a fumble.

• Like DJ Less, Saquon Barkley exited early for the second time this year, this time with a hamstring injury. I don’t have any shares, but he’s more of a killer than OJ. Apparently, Jeep Bigsby got hurt too, so people might be in the market for a running back of below average pigmentation this week.

• Not sure why they bothered to play the GB-TB game.

• Lamar Jackson is hurt yet again. It’s like half the league. At least he had the decency to rack up some fantasy points for you.

• Zay Flowers went bananas again even in a more run-friendly game script. He’s the only game in town, though he might be playing it with Tyler Huntley for a while.

• The Titans finally dispensed with wasting targets on Calvin Ridley, Eric Ayomanor and that Dike. You could see it last week against the Giants, Carnell Tate (12-9-145-0) starting to heat up.

• My one loss in Circa was with the Texans. Thinking a team is desperate or due often backfires. The Cowboys would’ve been 1-3 had they lost — everyone’s desperate in the NFL.

• What happened to Houston’s defense? CeeDee Lion (21-17-189-1) annihilated them, though plodder Javonte Williams had three TDs to Lamb’s one.

• George Pickens is a poor man’s Jameson Williams. People like the idea of George Pickens, but when Lamb is healthy, he’s Amon Ra St. Brown with more deep speed.

• David Montgomery was another crazy psyop. Washed up old high-mileage back going to a weak offense with poor blocking?

• I had Nico Collins (8-7-118-2) on my Do Not Draft List, and he had a nice game off the two-week hamstring hiatus. Just keep in mind it was against a bottom-five pass defense, and he still saw only eight targets. But maybe CJ Stroud will have throw more now that his defense seems to have collapsed.

• Ollie Gordon (9-100-1) was worth it for one game.

• Kyler Murray only had eyes for TJ Hockenson (13-13-119-0), a player I liked, but unfortunately dropped for Darren Waller this week in the Steak League.

• The Raiders gave it a good shot, but got killed by a muffed kickoff that put the Chiefs up two scores late.

• Kenneth Walker didn’t have that great a game, but you look up, and he had 177 yards and two TDs, thanks to a 76-yard run where he surprisingly got caught from behind and a 22-yard TD run right after the muffed kick.

• My only good team this year is the 14-team QB-flex RotoWire Dynasty league where I have Walker, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, CeeDee Lamb, Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford among others. It’s odd having all the good players in the league on the team you care least about, but better than nothing.

• I have Rashee Rice in one league, and actually drafted and dropped Tyquan Thornton in another. I guess Xavier Worthless, who I also have in that Dynasty League despite every effort to trade him, will actually get some work.

• Brock Bowers played through an illness, but after missing two games due to a surprise injury ahead of the season, maybe he could just keep it to himself next time. And who needs Bowers when Michael Mayer gets you the same stat line anyway?

• Kirk Cousins is still himself after a couple injury-plagued years in the wilderness. If the Raiders don’t collapse, he should keep the job all year.

• Ashton Jeanty (15-58-0, 8-6-68-0) might not be great, but he does not appear to have a usage problem.

• RJ Harvey (7-25-0, 10-10-68-0) doesn’t look good to me, but the Broncos like him, and that’s all that matters.

• Pat Bryant is a player, but now he’s probably out a month with an ankle sprain because half the league is injured at all times. Patrick Surtain, arguably the best corner in the game, is also out.

• It’s hard to trust Jaylen Waddle enough to start him, which is a problem for a guy you took in the third round.

• Brock Purdy is probably the league MVP through four games, but you know the voters would pick Patrick Mahomes.

• Christian McCaffrey might not be good anymore, but he gets 16 fantasy points in his sleep. Mike Evans (8-5-76-0) played effectively through the rib injury.

• I drafted Emanuel Wilson (21-81-1, 4-3-39-1) in one league too, but dropped him after Week 1 when he didn’t get much work. There’s no value in drafting guys with that pattern of production because you’re not holding third stringers for more than a week. He could get pushed aside by Zach Charbonnet at some point, but Charbonnet is coming back from a serious injury and isn’t that great to begin with. Maybe Jadarian Price comes back in a month too, but he’s no lock to have a big role either. Wilson could have value all year.

• JSN (6-5-76-0) came back to earth, but you want your first-round WR’s duds to be 12.6 points. Plus the Chargers drag you into the mud with them.

• The only silver lining from the Chargers is I have a few shares of Kimani Vidal, none of Omarion Hampton, and it’s starting to look like a committee.

• Never draft a Ladd to play in a man’s game.

• Justin Herbert showed toughness playing through some big hits, but at this rate, he’s not going to survive the season. And even if he did, he might not want to with that receiving corps.

This week I didn’t have a great feel for the slate, but I let it sit for a while and made my picks an hour ahead of the deadline.

Colts - 3.5 vs Redskins (London Game)

I wanted to sell the Redskins high off the Seattle win, but the Colts aren’t very good, either. Just a vibe, 3.5 is kind of high for a neutral site game.

Texans -3 vs Cowboys

The Texans are a desperate animal at 0-3, and their defense should play better than it has, even against a strong offense. The Cowboys are also returning from a trip to Brazil, and the Texans get Nico Collins back, which is huge, given how toothless their other offensive skill players are.

Jaguars +2.5 at Bengals

The Jaguars seem like the better-rounded, better-coached team and are getting the equal-team treatment with the 2.5.

Panthers +3.5 vs Lions

The Lions can score, but their defense is poor, and this is an outdoor road game where they’re laying more than a field goal against a non-doormat. Seemed like a good spot to fade them.

Falcons +2.5 at Saints

The Saints are scrappy, but they just got beaten at home by the Raiders. The Falcons have the extra rest coming off the Thursday night game last week and a big advantage in the run game.

The Browns are also a real team, and it makes me feel a lot better about going out with the Chargers Week 1 one in Survivor against the Cardinals rather than taking the in-hindsight obvious Jaguars over the doormat Browns. Those doormat Browns have won every game since, while the Cardinals have lost their two games since.

• DeShaun Watson is doing a decent job game-managing, though he did throw a pick and fumble twice. He still scrambles well, making a defender miss on a key third down.

• Quinshon Judkins (17-53-1, 7-6-43-0) finally had a good game, and he looked quicker and more elusive to me, though he managed only 3.1 YPC.

• Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion led the team in receiving yards, though Watson spread the ball around, including Harold Fannin (another TD) and even Jerry Jeudy. You can almost squint and see this as a potential stack down the stretch if the defense plays poorly.

• Rodgers had pressure in his face all game, took five sacks and threw two picks, but still got the ball down the field. He took a lot of hits for an old man.

• Jaylen Warren (17-93-0, 6-3-33-0) is a bell cow with Rico Dowdle out, He also looks the part.

• DK Metcalf (9-5-115-0) finally broke out. He doesn’t really get open, but Rodgers threw some nice balls to him, and he’s big and strong enough to make catches with defenders on top of him.

• Roman Wilson (6-3-74-1) scored for the second straight week. It seems like Rodgers trusts him now, while Michael Pittman is the odd man out.

1. Mookie Betts finishes top-10 in NL MVP voting Betts was the 24th NL hitter by ADP, and of course, a few pitchers could get votes too. I faded Betts, who lost 15 pounds off a 180-pound frame last year due to a spring training illness, and I’m buying back in now that he’s himself again. Shoo-in Hall of Famers typically don’t fall off a cliff at age 33.

   Verdict: False. He started slow, got hurt, and though he came on strong down the stretch, he won’t be close to top-10. (0-1)

2. Adley Rutschman (ADP C11) finishes as a top-five fantasy catcher.

   This is where he was drafted the last few years, and last year was marred by various injuries. He’s still the same guy and at 28 is in his prime.

   Verdict: False. He also got hurt, but he was just so-so, and there were a bunch of catchers who had monster years. (0-2)

3. Kevin Gausman finishes top-five in AL Cy Young votes

   This is a slight cheat since Gausman had a strong first outing, but if we were to re-run drafts today with 2026 stats included, he’s still going behind Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown, Max Fried and others. I love veteran pitchers who have figured out their craft, and Gausman is one of them.

   Verdict: False. Gausman’s K:BB numbers were good again, but he got shelled for a 4.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, and in any event was traded out of the AL midseason. (0-3)

4. Teoscar Hernandez cracks 35 homers in 2026 He had only 25 last year and is now 33, but Dodger Stadium is a favorable home run park, Hernandez played through a nagging groin injury and he hits in a lineup where pitchers will often have labored by the time he comes to the plate.

   Verdict: False. He also got hurt but even when healthy was not on pace for anything close to 35. (0-4)

5. George Springer (OF 23) finishes as a top-10 OF again in 2026

   Springer has always been fragile, so it’s probably not a coincidence his best year came as the team’s primary DH. Preserve health and the production should continue into his age 36 season a la David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz.

   Verdict: False. He went back to his scrubby, injury prone ways as though 2025 never happened. (0-5)

6. At least one of the following veteran pitchers has a top-seven CY finish: Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcantara, Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola, Zac Gallen and Blake Snell.

   I made it top seven, not top-five because so many of these guys are missing significant time, but Cole, Bieber, Snell or Rodon might crack top-seven in four months if they return to 100 percent right away.

   Verdict: False. No one was really close among this bunch. (0-6)

7. Kenley Jansen (RP 16), Josh Hader (RP 19) or Raisel Iglesias (RP 12) will finish top-three in saves. I love the old warhorse closers, and I would’ve included Aroldis Chapman were he not drafted so highly this year.

   Verdict: False. Iglesias finished eighth with 34, Hader 13th with 26 and Jansen 17th with 22. (0-7)

8. Casey Mize (Rd 19) outperforms Eury Perez (Rd 5)

   Slow and steady wins the race.

   Verdict: False. Mize was winning at one point, but collapsed down the stretch, while Perez saved his best outing for last. (0-8)

9. Brent Rooker hits 40 HR

   Rooker hit 39 two years ago in Oakland Coliseum, only 15 of which were at home, so 40 shouldn’t be a stretch in Sacramento if he has a 70th percentile season.

   Verdict: False. Rooker got hurt early in the year and managed only 10 HR in 48 games. (0-9)

10. Some of these predictions will turn out to be wrong

    I’ll pay the cost of never going 10-for-10 to make sure I don’t go 0-for-10.

    Verdict: Boy did I nail this one, the logic and execution. True! (1-9)