I try to make these bold enough that I get most of them wrong. If you’re not getting most wrong, they’re not bold enough! Hits from last year included Bo Bichette outperforming Mookie Betts, Carlos Rodon finishing top-five in CY voting (cheating because technically he finished sixth but crushed his ADP) and Hunter Brown finishing top-five in CY voting (third.) I also had Aroldis Chapman with more saves than Jhoan Duran (they tied.) Misses included Chris Sale finishing as a top-five starter, Jackson Chourio going 30-30-.300, Alex Bregman top-five MVP, Cody Bellinger 40 HR and Tyler Glasnow top-three in CY. Overall, it was a pretty good year as far as bold predictions go.

Also, these are hunches, the explanations for which are largely irrelevant. The relevant information is priced into ADP, so while I’ll justify it one way or another, it’s the prediction itself, not the explanation that matters.

1. Mookie Betts finishes top-10 in NL MVP voting

Betts was the 24th NL hitter by ADP, and of course, a few pitchers could get votes too. I faded Betts, who lost 15 pounds off a 180-pound frame last year due to a spring training illness, and I’m buying back in now that he’s himself again. Shoo-in Hall of Famers typically don’t fall off a cliff at age 33.

2. Adley Rutschman (ADP C11) finishes as a top-five fantasy catcher

This is where he was drafted the last few years, and last year was marred by various injuries. He’s still the same guy and at 28 is in his prime.

3. Kevin Gausman finishes top-five in AL Cy Young votes

This is a slight cheat since Gausman had a strong first outing, but if we were to re-run drafts today with 2026 stats included, he’s still going behind Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown, Max Fried and others. I love veteran pitchers who have figured out their craft, and Gausman is one of them.

4. Teoscar Hernandez cracks 35 homers in 2026

He had only 25 last year and is now 33, but Dodger Stadium is a favorable home run park, Hernandez played through a nagging groin injury and he hits in a lineup where pitchers will often have labored by the time he comes to the plate.

5. George Springer (OF 23) finishes as a top-10 OF again in 2026

Springer has always been fragile, so it’s probably not a coincidence his best year came as the team’s primary DH. Preserve health and the production should continue into his age 36 season a la David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz.

6. At least one of the following veteran pitchers has a top-seven CY finish: Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcantara, Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola, Zac Gallen and Blake Snell.

I made it top seven, not top-five because so many of these guys are missing significant time, but Cole, Bieber, Snell or Rodon might crack top-seven in four months if they return to 100 percent right away.

7. Kenley Jansen (RP 16), Josh Hader (RP 19) or Raisel Iglesias (RP 12) will finish top-three in saves.

I love the old warhorse closers, and I would’ve included Aroldis Chapman were he not drafted so highly this year.

8. Casey Mize (Rd 19) outperforms Eury Perez (Rd 5)

Slow and steady wins the race.

9. Brent Rooker hits 40 HR

Rooker hit 39 two years ago in Oakland Coliseum, only 15 of which were at home, so 40 shouldn’t be a stretch in Sacramento if he has a 70th percentile season.

10. Some of these predictions will be wrong

I’ll pay the cost of never going 10-for-10 to make sure I don’t go 0-for-10.

** injured/dropped

Four shares: None

Three shares: Bryan Woo, Adley Rutschman, Mickey Moniak

Two shares: Paul Skenes, Jose Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero, Mason Miller, Freddie Freeman, Randy Arozarena, Jeremy Pena, Kenley Jansen, Teoscar Hernandez, Matthew Boyd, Austin Wells, Brett Baty, Roki Sasaki, Josh Jung, Garrett Mitchell, Shane Bieber, Jasson Dominguez, Dylan Beavers, Justin Steele

Zero shares: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt, Juan Soto, Tarik Skubal, Ronald Acuna, Elly De La Cruz, Julio Rodriguez, Garrett Crochet, Fernando Tatis, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Tucker, Cristopher Sanchez, Junior Caminero, Jackson Chourio, Edwin Diaz, Jazz Chisholm, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cal Raleigh, Nick Kurtz, Cade Smith, Jhoan Duran, Kyle Schwarber, Francisco Lindor, Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown, Pete Alonso, Wyatt Langford, Devin Williams, Max Fried, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jacob deGrom, Cole Ragans, Yordan Alvarez, Zach Neto, David Bednar, Jesus Luzardo, Shane Langeliers, Freddy Peralta, Manny Machado, Aroldis Chapman, George Kirby, James Wood, Austin Riley, Eury Perez, Daniel Palencia, Ben Rice

Bold = intentional fade

Bold + Italics = hard fade

Write-ups for each league are here: BCL1, BCL2, BCL3 and MAIN.

Links to prior portfolios: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022*, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011**

* Sadly lost forever because it was on my now defunct original web site

** including these links not because anyone will click on them, but to show off my meticulous (bordering on OCD) record keeping

Here are the full results:

1.7 Paul Skenes — I wouldn’t do this in a 12, but the ratio of pitching draft capital spend (DCS) to hitting DCS is much higher in the 15. This pushes up the values of the starting pitchers generally, especially at the top.

2.9 Bryan Woo — After I looked at the implied values given the high pitching spend in the Main, I knew I was going SP-SP the first two rounds so long as Woo or Chris Sale made it back to me. Jackson Chourio fell too, and I was tempted to abandon the strategy, but either I was going by my numbers or not, so I stuck with it. (Looks like I dodged a bullet too.)

3.7 Trea Turner — Having passed on hitting the first two rounds, I had to have steals in the third no matter what. My order of preference was Turner, Pete Crow-Armstrong and then Zach Neto. But getting a SS in the third round triggered another decision in Round 5 which might be my only regret.

4.9 Ketel Marte — I missed Brett Rooker, who would have been perfect, by one pick. But getting 25-plus HR and good average from my second baseman was good enough. With the two pitchers to start the draft, I had to make sure I was getting enough power and speed.

5.7 Ryan Helsley — This was the decision I resolved to make if I got Turner or Neto rather than PCA in Rd 3. I needed to get a closer, and I had been planning on waiting for Raisel Iglesias in Rd 6. But in last night’s ADP, Iglesias crept up into early Rd 6 and wouldn’t have made it to me. Had I taken an OF in Rd 3, I would have snagged Mookie Betts here and gambled on Iglesias coming back. But the combination of filling all my MI spots right away AND risking Iglesias not coming back made me hold my nose and take Helsley.

6.9 Freddie Freeman — Betts was gone, Iglesias was there, so I should have had Betts/Iglesias and wound up with Helsley/Freeman. Six of one, half dozen of the other, you might say, but the outcomes might be very different. But it was better to have a 1B than fill up my MI at least.

7.7 George Springer — My two targets, Randy Arozarena and Josh Naylor went a couple picks ahead of me, so I went with Springer who just needs to do half of what he did last year to earn this slot. I was a little light on steals, but not too bad as Springer runs, and Freeman even chips in from first base.

8.9 Jeremy Pena — I might have jumped the gun on this, as I was looking at the projections sheet, and Pena was easily the higher hitter left, but his ADP was 132, and this was pick 114. There was no one I’d prefer over him left, but after all the concern about filling up my MI with Betts, I did it anyway with Pena.

9.7 Teoscar Hernandez — Hernandez played hurt last year, and he’s healthy now and in that highly favorable lineup. I was just stacking power here as all my guys are 20-homerish types, and I needed someone who could push for 30.

10.9 Josh Hader — I had to do it. He slipped past ADP, and why not gamble on your second closer? I thought I might snag Bryan Abreu in the following round, but he was taken with the very next pick, which was a relief, as there was nothing I could do about it, and I was free to use my 11th round pick on my actual target.

11.7 Adley Rutschman — I think Rutschman is mispriced. He’s still the same guy as a couple years ago, just had one bad year and one injury-marred one. I also liked getting a 20-HR catcher as I was still a little light on power.

12.9 Ranger Suarez — I missed out Luis Castillo by a few picks, so I settled for Suarez. Pure projections play, as I needed to get some solid innings eaters to backup Skenes and Woo.

13.7 Matthew Boyd — Same as Suarez. Projections love him, need the innings, wins and Ks.

14.9 Spencer Strider — I don’t know how long he’s out, but it might only be a couple weeks. There’s still a lot of upside here for a 14th-round price.

15.7 J.T. Realmuto — I thought I might regret the Strider pick if someone took Realmuto, but luckily he made it all the way back. Realmuto is a sneaky source of steals at catcher too.

16.9 Sal Frelick — I had only two OF and wanted to fill up with some young, upside players in good parks who run. Frelick fit the bill.

17.7 Mickey Moniak — A staple of my teams this year, he’ll be massive during homestands, and you can sub him out on the road if need be.

18.9 Brett Baty — I needed a 3B, and Baty, like Realmuto, is a sneaky source of steals (eight last year) from a largely non-running position.

19.7 Cade Cavalli — Was 50/50 between him and Andrew Painter, went with Cavalli because Painter could lose his job when Zack Wheeler returns.

20.9 TJ Friedl — I wanted a final OF, more steals and a guy who hits at the top of the lineup in a good park.

21.7 Josh Jung — I needed a corner, and Jung is one. He can hit if he ever stays healthy, and he has a job.

22.9 Masyn Winn — Winn slots in as my UT, but this was one of my favorite picks — young hitter in a growth phase, who runs and has a little pop.

23.7 Spencer Steer — Another hitter with some pop in a good park, who I’ll probably need when Jung inevitably gets hurt.

24.9 Roki Sasaki — He’s been horrible this spring, but he righted the ship as a reliever last year, and the upside is still massive if he can do it as a starter.

25.7 Noah Cameron — No idea who this is, but seems he has a rotation spot for the Royals and was good last year.

26.9 Garrett Mitchell — I’m surprised he doesn’t go a few rounds earlier. Top power-speed tools prospect who plays good defense in a good hitter’s park.

27.7 Michael McGreevy — Pitcher with good command in a good park, having a good spring.

28.9 Dylan Beavers — Good power-speed prospect who has a chance to play this year.

29.7 Shane Bieber — There’s a chance he’ll be back around the same time as Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, but he’s much cheaper.

30.9 Jordan Leasure — Hopefully he records some saves at his leisure.

Roster By Position:

C Adley Rutschman/JT Realmuto

1B Freddie Freeman

2B Ketel Marte

3B Brett Baty

SS Trea Turner

CI Josh Jung

MI Jeremy Pena

OF George Springer/Teoscar Hernandez/Sal Frelick/Mickey Moniak/TJ Friedl

UT Maysn Winn

SP Paul Skenes/Bryan Woo/Ranger Suarez/Matthew Boyd/Spencer Strider/Cade Cavalli/Roki Sasaki

RP Ryan Helsley/Josh Hader

B Spencer Steer/Noah Cameron/Garrett Mitchell/Michael McGreevy/Dylan Beavers/Shane Bieber/Jordan Leasure

Here’s the live stream of the first hour or so:

And here are the full results:

1.7 Jose Ramirez — It was the second time I landed on Ramirez. Based on ADP I thought I was getting Tarik Skubal, but he went at pick 5, and while Skubal is probably more valuable overall, getting the power/speed third baseman makes for a much easier build in the 12s. Getting your steals from 3B also makes that category a lot easier — you can always find them at OF and MI, but rarely at third.

2.6 Vladimir Guerrero — Same start as BCL1. The projections love Guerrero, but he’s a tough sell if you had Skubal in Round 1 due to lack of steals. But once I landed Ramirez, Guerrero was an easy call. I did consider Cal Raleigh, but because the catcher values are done separately and loaded back into the general rankings (something you have to do), I trusted his valuation less.

3.7 Mason Miller — It was the second time I landed Miller in three drafts, and I was happy to do it at this price. Elite closers are scarce and give you about 30 strikeouts over the garden-variety middle rounders.

4.6 Chris Sale — I needed an ace, and I was looking at Sale and Hunter Brown, but Brown went a few picks before, so it was an easy call. I was tempted to take Zach Neto who slipped, but I needed the ace more.

5.7 Brent Rooker — He was the highest player on the projections-heavy sheet, so I grabbed him. You really need to have a good power base in the 12s, and Rooker/Ramirez/Vlad is probably enough through five rounds.

6.6 William Contreras — He slipped somewhat, and I was happy to take him at a discount. Getting a catcher that has enough power, hits in a good spot in the lineup and doesn’t hurt your average gives you optionality to chase one-dimensional bats later in the draft.

7.7 Framber Valdez — The projections love him, and I needed a second starter. I was still light steals, but Valdez was far and away the top guy on the projections-heavy cheat sheet.

8.6 Riley Greene — I got sniped by one pick on Randy Arozarena who would have helped with steals, so I just stats-stacked with the top overall player on the board. Sometimes you go pure value over need. Now my power base was not just adequate but strong.

9.7 Michael Harris — Harris isn’t a player I typically draft, but he’s good for 20 bags and was the highest player on the board. Sometimes need and value line up.

10.6 Trevor Story — Another player I rarely draft, but again, need and value. Story is an injury risk, but he’s good for at least 20 steals if he stays healthy.

11.7 Michael Busch — This filled me up at corner (already had Vlad and Ramirez), but another value take and power add. My team was now loaded with power bats, but a little light on pitching and speed. And I still needed a second closer.

12.6 Griffin Jax — We don’t know for sure if he’ll get the saves, but he’s the best reliever on the team and has a good chance to do so. It’s always a relief when you lock down that second closer (no pun intended.)

13.7 Hunter Greene — It was time. A big risk when I had only two other starters, but if he’s okay (and he was able to pitch through the elbow injury last year), he’s a top-five-round value. Worth noting the 13th-round pick in my first draft was Pablo Lopez who is now out for the year with a torn UCL, so hopefully this draft doesn’t parallel that one beyond having the same first two picks (Ramirez/Vlad.)

14.6 Kenley Jansen — I was still low on starting pitching, but I couldn’t pass up the discount on a third closer. There’s a good chance you lose one of your closers during the year, so having three isn’t even that much of a luxury, and if all of them keep their jobs, there’s nothing wrong with running all of them out during weeks when your low-end starters have bad matchups.

15.7 Steven Kwan — A perfect fit on a team with tons of power that was still light on steals. The batting average buys you room to mess around with cheap, low-average power late too.

16.6 Luis Castillo — I love old warhorse pitchers, especially in pitcher’s parks. I needed the innings especially if Greene isn’t able to come back, another perfect fit.

17.7 Bryson Stott — My team was light in bags, and Stott will help. I’m still not flush in steals, but between Ramirez, Harris, Story, Kwan and Stott, I’m keeping pace now.

18.6 Carlos Rodon — Another injured pitcher with huge upside. Rodon is expected back in April, and if so, this could be a big windfall in Round 18. But having Greene and Rodon on the same team as starters 3 and 5 is obviously a risk.

19.7 Otto Lopez — Another middle who can steal 15 bags and even add a little pop. This is why getting the steals from Ramirez at 3B is so valuable — you can always find pockets of them at MI later in the draft.

20.6 Kodai Senga — Boring veteran in a good park that shouldn’t hurt my ratios.

21.7 Mickey Moniak — A sneaky source of average (can sit him in road series) with some pop and even a few steals. I like landing him as my fifth OF.

22.6 Cody Ponce — He thrived overseas enough to get a three-year, $30 million deal with the Jays. His velocity was up last year too.

23.7 Austin Wells — I needed a second catcher, and Wells brings some pop in a good hitter’s park. Having so much power allows me to maximize the value of Kwan too.

24.6 Joey Cantillo — He pitched well down the stretch last year and is a nice source of Ks if he sticks in the rotation.

25.7 Casey Mize — He’s mispriced. Mize had 14 wins last year, and while wins are noisy, he’s on a good team in a decent park, able to go deep enough into games to get them. He’s also young enough (for a pitcher) to get better.

26.6 Cade Cavalli — He was throwing 97 last year and is finally healthy after being derailed by injuries.

27.7 Cedric Mullins — He’s good for 20 bags if he stays healthy, without killing your power. And I have enough batting average to tolerate the hit he brings.

28.6 Jasson Dominguez — He might start the year in the minors, but Giancarlo Stanton is long shot to stay healthy. Dominguez is still only 23 and hit 10 homers with 23 steals in 381 at-bats last year. Real breakout potential at a low price.

29.7 Garrett Mitchell — Toolsy player who’s been derailed by injuries and healthy now. Another 20-20 type if he can stay healthy and put it together.

30.6 Josh Jung — He’s been productive on the rare occasion he’s been healthy. I wanted to back up a corner spot since my reserves were all pitchers and outfielders.

Roster By Position

C William Contreras/Austin Wells

1B Vladimir Guerrero

2B Bryson Stott

3B Jose Ramirez

SS Trevor Story

CI Michael Busch

MI Otto Lopez

OF Brent Rooker/Riley Greene/Michael Harris/Steven Kwan/Mickey Moniak

UT Cedric Mullins

SP Chris Sale/Framber Valdez/Hunter Greene/Luis Castillo/Carlos Rodon/Kodai Senga

RP Mason Miller/Griffin Jax/Kenley Jansen

B Cody Ponce/Joey Cantillo/Casey Mize/Cade Cavalli/Jasson Dominguez/Garrett Mitchell/Josh Jung

Signup link is here. Entry is $350 as usual, grand prize $150K.

I already did two drafts, and this is the last BCL of the year.

Warning: I’m actually prepared this time around.

My style of aggressively targeting upside players throughout the draft started to pay off less and less. I chalked this up to devoting less time to the process, and even wound up outsourcing in-season management once I realized I would never put in the time on Sundays to stay competitive in tougher leagues. Maybe it was just normal variance — yes, I had an edge, but I was playing at a breakeven level (only cashing in one out of four leagues) due to bad luck. Maybe.

But this year I’ve more earnestly gone in drafting off a hybrid cheat sheet that emphasizes projections early and ADP late. I did less research than ever, so my personal hunches/leans are restricted only to a few players, and I’m more agnostic about most. If the hybrid sheet says value, and he fits my team, draft. I don’t care if it’s a boring player my past self would never consider except at a deep discount.

I think this shift is necessary not because I’m so far removed from my prime all-in baseball years that my pattern recognition is no longer in service. I still trust my hunches on the few players who seem to me to be mispriced. It’s necessary now because baseball itself has changed, and I had not adapted to it. It started with the Moneyball A’s and then the Rays, and eventually the stat nerds won the war of who knows the most about building baseball teams. Consequently, more lineups employ platoons at different spots, fewer pitchers hit 200 innings, fewer relievers dominate the save opportunities on teams. In short, the environment around which 5 x 5 fantasy baseball was designed no longer exists.

Recognizing this, some people have tried to tailor the game toward modern baseball reality with OBP replacing AVG, for example, or adding holds in addition to saves. I have no interest in re-calibrating my valuation systems toward fringe low-stakes leagues, (though there is obviously nothing wrong with doing so if you enjoy it.) The question for me is how do I adapt to this environment mismatch between the modern game and its somewhat anachronistic derivative. The irony of fantasy baseball, played over the internet, being more traditional in some ways than the thing itself.

As much as I hate to admit it, this is where the projections nerds have it right. A bunch of 50th percentile fictions that can’t account for players sharply diverging from their prior trajectories, usually the few difference-makers whose breakouts aren’t remotely priced in — see Springer, George or Raleigh, Cal — do capture something important, and maybe it’s the only thing for the first 10 rounds or so: who is getting bankable production, barring injury or unexpected and unlikely sudden divergence to the downside.

Maybe you always had to do that for the first few rounds, but come Round 4-5 for me it was time to gamble, and by 7-10 I was swinging from the heels. The reason was sometimes those guys would hit, and you’d have a first or second-round value at less than half the cost. But even if they busted, it wasn’t that big a deal. I could find value even later in drafts and on the waiver wire to fill in. In fact, in mixed league auctions I’d just spend up for four first rounders and the top closer and fill in cheaply at the end. There were just more players with full-time at-bats and capable of 200 IP, i.e., the replacement level was much higher.

The problem now for players who are not yet fully established is it’s very likely they don’t get every day at-bats out of the gate. I had Jackson Chourio a couple years ago, and for the first two months the Brewers had him in and out of the lineup erratically before committing in June. If a prospect of Chourio’s stature can get dicked around like that, so can anyone. The teams are a bunch of tinkerers now.

But the projections take that into account. Rookies and unestablished players are not given full season’s worth of at-bats. They don’t ask “what could go right?” but “what do we know now?” And so when you draft off projections, you often wind up with a bunch of boring players like these.

I can get into how I translate projections into dollar values for the NFBC format in another post. It’s not that straightforward to model the quirks of that game, but no matter what, the raw stats will always power order in which the players appear. And from what we know, players like Seiya Suzuki, Teoscar Hernandez and Jose Altuve often show up at the top of your sheet in the middle rounds whether you like it or not.

When projectable replacement value drops, players hitting fourth (or sixth in the Dodgers’ loaded lineup) every day gain importance. If your upside swings in the ninth round bust, good luck finding 530 productive at-bats or 180 useful innings to replace them in 2026. In short, the 12-team leagues almost seem to play like 15-teamers from 10 years ago, and the 15-teamers almost like only-leagues. At-bats and innings are at a premium, floor is at a premium, ceiling is now more of a luxury than ever.

Of course, once you get out of the first 15 rounds, upside is back in play. It just takes that much longer for the pendulum to shift than it used to. The “guarantee” of quality at-bats has to become more flimsy before it’s worth risking on speculative production. But that flip does happen, and projections become even less reliable and more ignorable post Round-20. That’s where the collective value of your claims to the waiver wire starts to take on more expected return than each pick. At that point, you are buying “what could go right” tickets because “what we know” isn’t likely to matter much for purposes of winning your fantasy league.

As such, I built a hybrid system that emphasizes projections over ADP early, splits it in the middle, and goes heavy ADP late. There’s even an argument for weighting projections negatively late, meaning you downgrade anyone getting drafted just because he’s got a role for now and go all-in on sleepers and upside.

We’ll see how it works out this year, but I already feel more confident (and it’s only February) in my first two drafts after getting over the revulsion at picking the most boring and conservative players I’ve ever picked. I would say there’s zero chance for upside, but then again last year’s two biggest breakouts, Springer and Raleigh, were as boring as it got.

I drew the 10th pick. Here are the results:

1.10 Paul Skenes — I’m nervous about Skenes, throwing as hard as he does, as young as he is, but its hard to predict injuries, and once Elly De La Cruz went, I snapped-called it. He was by far the highest guy on the hybrid sheet.

2.3 Corbin Carroll — He broke his hamate, but it was his off hand, and he’s already taking one-handed swings in the cage. The Diamondbacks expect him back around Opening Day, and while it might take six weeks to get all his power back, I needed a power-speed guy after taking the pitcher in the first.

3.10 Mason Miller — Another easy call, the top closer on my board who contributes maybe 30-40 extra Ks and good ratios.

4.3 Bryan Woo — The projections love this guy, have him No. 20 overall. I like getting a second ace to lock in the standings gains from the first.

5.10 Freddie Freeman — I got swiped on Mookie Betts by one pick, so I settled for Freeman. With Carroll and three pitchers, I was light on power, but Freeman is actually good for power because he’s good for batting average and runs. And having average and runs lets you shop for power later on the cheap (at the expense of average and runs.)

6.3 Logan Webb — Maybe overkill to draft four pitchers in six picks, but he was No. 38 on the hybrid board — projections love him too.

7.10 Jeremy Pena — Another source of batting average and a little speed without hurting my power too much. Still light power, but Pena, like Freeman, buys me opportunities later.

8.3 Randy Arozarena — The projections like him, and he adds speed with power, though at the expense of batting average. I’m building an AB-heavy team, plenty of runs as a way to offset the expensive early pitching.

9.10 Seiya Suzuki — He was the highest hitter on my board, brings some pop and probably a little batting average, last year’s mark notwithstanding. More unsexy at-bats in the middle of the lineup.

10.3 Jose Altuve — He won’t run as much, but still solid pop from second base, batting average and another 550 at-bats in the heart of the lineup.

11.10 Teoscar Hernandez — Apparently he played through a groin injury last year and is healthy now. Some pop, and more at-bats, likely with men on base, in a stacked lineup.

12.3 Kenley Jansen — Old warhorse closer on a good team,

13.10 Adley Rutschman — Underpriced based on one disappointing and one injury-ruined year. He’s slated to hit second in this lineup too. Good source of runs and a little pop from the catcher spot.

14.3 Noelvi Marte — Former top prospect with power and speed, still only 24, possibly hitting second in the Reds lineup. Also has dual eligibility, 3B/OF.

15.10 Willson Contreras — No longer catcher eligible, but gets a good park upgrade and likely hits cleanup for the Red Sox.

16.3 Konnor Griffin — On a team of boring at-bat getters, it was time. Griffin is MLB’s top prospect and could steal 40 bases in a full season. Recently, Pirates manager Don Kelly said it would be a tough ask for Griffin to make the opening roster, but the Pirates might also just be negotiating his long-term deal. Either way, he could be up before long if he tears up the high minors, and if they strike a deal, he could even break camp with the club. Buy the dip.

17.10 Jack Flaherty — I needed a pitcher, and he was the top one on the hybrid list. He’s a good source of strikeouts, but the walks and BABIP got him last year.

18.3 Jackson Holliday — I got snaked on another boring at-bat getter, Ezequiel Tovar, so I went with another upside MI in Holliday. Holliday could miss the first week with a broken hand, but he should be back soon.

19.10 Roki Sasaki — I think Sasaki is mispriced. He was bad last year, but seemed to solve his mechanical issues out of the bullpen, and now he’s part of the six-man rotation. No reason he couldn’t pick up where he left off in Japan two years ago.

20.3 Matthew Boyd — Another solid veteran pitcher who can eat innings and contribute to strikeouts.

21.10 Austin Wells — The only category in which I might be light is power, and Wells is a 20-HR catcher in a hitter-friendly park. It’s easier to have a Judge or Schwarber to boost your HR totals, but this team has to get it from everywhere.

22.3 Mickey Moniak — The former No. 1 overall amateur draft pick, Moniak had 24 HR, nine steals and hit .270 last year in 434 at-bats. Plus he’s great at home and terrible on the road, so he’s a perfect player to stream.

23.10 Brett Baty — With Griffin and Holliday as my two MIs, I needed someone in case neither is present on his respective Opening Day roster. Baty had 18 homers and eight steals in 393 at-bats last year — at 26, he still has some upside over a full season.

24.3 Bailey Ober — He was once good, and apparently he’s solved a nagging hip issue that derailed his 2025 season.

25.10 Jasson Dominguez — He has nowhere to play as of this moment, but he’s 23, and had 10 homers and 23 steals in 381 at-bats last year. A no-brainer at this stage of the draft with old and injury prone Yankees around the diamond.

26.3 Connelly Early — I don’t know, seems like a decent pitching prospect.

27.10 Chris Bassitt — Another innings eater and source of Ks. The Orioles paid him $18M this year, so they certainly think he has something in the tank.

28.3 Jake McCarthy — I wanted some extra steals, and he’s got a chance to play against righties in Coors Field.

29.10 Lane Thomas — Thomas went 15-32 in 472 at-bats the last time he was healthy, and it looks like he’s a starter in Kansas City for now.

30.3 Justin Steele — He was an ace before getting hurt, and apparently he could be back in May.

Roster By Position

C Adley Rustchman/Austin Wells

1B Freddie Freeman

2B Jose Altuve

3B Noelvi Marte

SS Jeremy Pena

CI Willson Contreras

MI Konnor Griffin

OF Corbin Carroll/Randy Arozarena/Seiya Suzuki/Teoscar Hernandez/Mickey Moniak

UT Jackson Holliday

SP Paul Skenes/Bryan Woo/Logan Webb/Jack Flaherty/Roki Sasaki/Matthew Boyd/Bailey Ober

RP Mason Miller/Kenley Jansen

B Brett Baty/Jasson Dominguez/Connelly Early/Chris Bassitt/Jake McCarthy/Lane Thomas/Justin Steele

I drew the eighth spot.

Here are the results:

1.8 Jose Ramirez — I had expected to get Tarik Skubal per the ADP I had downloaded, but there are only a few Online Championship drafts per week in the first half of February, so the ADP is not that reliable yet. Skubal went fifth, someone took Julio Rodriguez a few picks early at six, and Ramirez, who wasn’t even on my radar, fell to me. It was kind of a relief as the Skubal build is harder, and I was a bit unprepared in this first draft. Ramirez gets you the power/speed/runs base you need to have flexibility later. Also the steals from 3B are more valuable than steals from MI or OF which you can get more easily.

2.5 Vladimir Guerrero — I built a custom projections/ADP cheat sheet for this draft, leaning more heavily on projections (Ariel Cohen’s ATC which is an aggregate of various projection systems), and it loved Guerrero. On the hybrid cheat sheet (the one I was mostly using, he was 14th overall, but in the projections alone he was 12, and that was after boosting steals to 1.3x to account for the NFBC overall.)

3.8 Bryan Woo — I was set to take Edwin Diaz, but he went one pick before me, considered Yordan Alvarez, but Woo was the highest player on my sheet by far, as the projections had him 20th overall, despite my apportioning only 30 percent of the spend for pitchers. His ADP was 42, so I probably could have waited on him until the fourth round.

4.5 Andres Munoz — The Woo pick ended up being fine as I needed a closer, and I like Munoz as much as the other third-round closers I would have taken instead of him. But maybe an Alvarez/Woo turn would have been better.

5.8 Mookie Betts — This was the one guy I had to have, and I even considered jumping him to the fourth round, but when you’re winging it in your first draft of the year, you don’t want to get too aggressive. Later on, when you’ve mastered the player pool, you can do things like that, but I decided to gamble on him being there in the fifth, and he was. Betts was going in the first round last year but had his season derailed by an illness that caused him to drop 15 pounds. The guy is only about 185, so that’s a huge drop. He’s healthy now, and at 33, he’s due for a major correction. While many players are in decline at that age, Betts is a shoo-in Hall of Famer, and players of that caliber are usually good until their late 30s. He’s badly mispriced IMO, maybe belongs in the middle of the third.

6.5 Logan Webb — Webb was 28th in the projections and 38 on my hybrid sheet, so he was an easy call here, as I needed a second starter too.

7.8 Jarren Duran — Framber Valdez was higher on the sheet, but it’s based on hitters and pitchers being sorted separately, so sometimes you have clusters of pitchers who are all higher than similar hitters, and I wanted to be mindful of that. Moreover, I had no outfielders at this point, two aces and plenty of sleeper pitchers in later rounds. And I needed more steals.

8.5 Randy Arozarena — This isn’t a player I would normally draft, but he was near the top of the hybrid sheet, I had batting average to burn, needed more outfielders and wanted more speed/power.

9.8 Oneil Cruz — Talk about spending that early batting average edge. Surprisingly he was near the top of the sheet, and I imagine the .200 from last year was a BABIP-driven fluke. In this environment, .230 is survivable if he duplicates the power/speed from 2025. Now I was flush with outfielders and tons of steaks.

10.5 Yanier Diaz — This pick was perfect. I needed a catcher and was wary of the batting average risk from the prior two picks. Diaz can hit .270 from the catcher spot which is like .290 from an outfield spot.

11.8 Kevin Gausman — I love old veteran pitchers, needed more strikeouts and innings. Gausman is typically a horse.

12.5 Adley Rutschman — I had planned to take Kenley Jansen here, but he was gone, so I pivoted to Rutschman who is a good bounce-back candidate after an injury-plagued 2025. He still gets on base and should hit near the top of the lineup. It was nice to be set at catcher too.

13.8 Pablo Lopez — I missed the more fun pick, Jacob Misiorowski by one spot, but pivoted to Lopez who was going in the third or fourth round not long ago. He’s was good when healthy last year, and is apparently healthy for the time being.

14.5 Ryan Walker — I needed a second closer, and he is one. I like the ballpark too.

15.8 Brandon Lowe — This was kind of a clock-winding-down panic pick. I needed a second baseman, was a little light on pop and heavy on steals so it fits though. Yes, I have Ramirez, Guerrero, Arozarena, Betts, Cruz and two functional catchers, but without a Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, you need power depth.

16.5 Ezequiel Tovar — Another last year’s bum the cheat sheet liked with enough pop who shouldn’t hurt my average while playing in Coors.

17.8 Mike Trout — Why not? He’s still got 30-HR power over a full season, and even if he plays 120 games, I’ll have plenty of options to sub in for him. And what if he pulls a Byron Buxton and miraculously stays healthy?

18.5 Daylen Lile — All the guy did last year was rake, and he could even chip in with some steals without hurting my average.

19.8 Matthew Boyd — Another veteran pitcher coming off a good year in a soft division. He’s also a lefty who somehow managed to increase his velocity last year.

20.5 Jake Burger — Another last year’s bum, healthy now, who showed real pop despite playing in Florida for a couple years.

21.8 Logan Henderson — The Brewers are good at developing pitchers, and Henderson had a strong 2025 in the minors and majors.

22.5 Kyle Manzardo — I needed a UT, and I wanted one with some pop. He’s only 25 too, so there might be another level in him.

23.8 Luis Garcia — This was a bench pick as I still needed one more pitcher, but he seemed cheap at this price, given the power/speed combo from second base. Plus, second base was one of my weaker positions, and I wanted the depth.

24.5 Shane Bieber — He’s dealing with some “fatigue” after last year’s playoffs, but even if he misses a few weeks in April, the upside is worth it at this price.

25.8 Tyler Mahle — I always used to ask Jeff Erickson during our SXM show whether he was “high on Mahle” and for that reason alone, this is a good pick. But he also pitched well when healthy last year and finds himself in a good park.

26.5 Trent Grisham — Last year’s power came out of nowhere, so people are fading him, but this seemed like the right price to grab a guy who for whatever reason hit 34 homers in a ballpark that’s friendly to lefties. He has to hit .230 and not .190 though.

27.8 Justin Steele — No one can argue he’s not the Steele of the draft. Another once dominant veteran who’s dealing with an injury. There’s a chance he’s back in late April if things go smoothly. If not, drop.

28.5 Lucas Giolito — Another veteran pitcher who was once good. He’s unsigned as of now, but I imagine he’ll wind up somewhere in the next few weeks.

29.8 Dylan Beavers — If you see your roster as a dam, what would you need to build it? Beavers. He’s a real prospect though with a shot at regular playing time.

30.5 Nolan Gorman — I was this close to taking Justin Verlander just to annoy Ryan Garofalo (who has no choice but to accept and run this team), but I went Gorman who qualifies as a backup at second and third. He could also hit 30 HR, but batting average is the issue.

Roster By Position:

C Yaniel Diaz/Adley Rutschman

1B Vlad Guerrero

2B Brandon Lowe

3B Jose Ramirez

SS Mookie Betts

CI Jake Burger

MI Ezeqiuel Tovar

OF Jarren Duran/Randy Arozarena/Oneil Cruz/Mike Trout/Daylen Lile

UT Kyle Manzardo

SP Bryan Woo/Logan Webb/Kevin Gausman/Pablo Lopez/Matthew Boyd/Logan Henderson/Shane Bieber

RP Andres Munoz/Ryan Walker

B Luis Garcia/Tyler Mahle/Trent Grisham/Justin Steele/Lucas Giolito/Dylan Beavers-Nolan Gorman

In any event, if you want in, sign up here. Cost is $350.

Be forewarned, I’ll be live-streaming the event, so your picks might get mocked if they are poor.

In any event, I don’t mean to sound salty because that game went almost perfectly from my standpoint. I had Seahawks -4.5, and it was never in much doubt because elite defenses tend to overperform in Super Bowls. I’m not sure why this isn’t obvious to everyone by now, but the lines never seem to reflect it. I sure hope it stays that way.

Two bets I should have made but didn’t were Seahawks -14.5 at 3:1 and Kenneth Walker for MVP (not sure the odds). If you have the favorite winning in a defensive-oriented blowout, there’s a good chance its sole good running back has a strong game and its QB a modest one, especially with an elite corner on his lone elite receiver. But easier to see that after the fact.

• Sam Darnold is the first player from the 2018 QB class that includes Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson even to make, let alone win, a Super Bowl. He had one key scramble and mostly did a good job not making any mistakes. You want to be a caretaker with a defense like that.

• Walker had a big workload and earned the MVP, breaking tackles and showcasing his breakaway speed. He was a bad fantasy pick this year because the Seahawks managed his workload on purpose so he’d be fresh when he was most needed.

• JSN was checked for a concussion at one point, but did little on his 10 targets. Christian Gonzalez had a great game. Cooper Kupp led the team with 12 targets but had only 61 yards. The best thing about the Seahawks passing game was zero turnovers and only one sack taken.

• The Seahawks kicker and punter were difference makers. Jason Myers didn’t miss a kick, and Michael Dickson pinned the Patriots inside their own five twice.

• Drake Maye was under pressure all game, took six sacks and threw two picks. The Patriots didn’t have enough playmakers, and the Seahawks were getting to Maye with only four rushers, the key to dominating quality offenses.

• The Patriots had no running game to speak of — it was all Maye mostly throwing short and intermediate passes and occasionally scrambling.

• This game had very few penalties. It’s always nice not to have to talk about the refs.

• It’s always nice seeing a game go almost entirely how you imagined it and getting paid for the experience. It’s not that common, unless one of the teams has an elite defense in the Super Bowl.

Most of you know my pick already, but I’m putting a paywall on this as a differentiator for my paying subscribers. Believe it or not, they really exist, and every now and then I need to provide some value that’s not freely available to everyone.

Super Bowl LX

Patriots +4.5 vs Seahawks (45.5)

Before I looked at the line, I expected it to be about seven. The Seahawks had just beaten a Rams team that’s tough on both sides of the ball and blown out a 49ers team that was competitive all year. The Patriots benefited from the easiest regular season schedule in the league, drew the Chargers who were missing their entire offensive line, the Texans in a weather game where CJ Stoud had five turnovers and the Broncos in another weather game without their starting quarterback. They happen to represent the AFC, but even today, the Bills would be favored against them on a neutral field as would the Broncos with a healthy Bo Nix.

The other trend I’ve documented at length is that elite defenses tend to overperform expectations in the Super Bowl. One can form theories as to why this is, but the examples are overwhelming from the underdog Seahawks crushing Manning’s Broncos to the 2016 Broncos (underdogs) stifling Cam Newton’s 15-1 Panthers to the 2000 Ravens to the 2002 Bucs (underdogs) to the 2020 Bucs who took apart Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Even the Giants two improbable wins over Tom Brady were largely due to a defense (though not highly ranked on the year) that was loaded with edge rushers and playing out of its mind in the playoffs. For whatever reason, if there’s a Super Bowl, and one team has an elite defense, that team tends to win and cover.

But is the Seahawks defense elite? Let’s look at the numbers. Sorted by yards per play, the Seahawks (4.6) were second only to the Broncos (4.5). And they did this despite playing the Rams (6.2 YPP, 1st) twice. The Patriots defense was middle of the pack (5.2 YPP) despite getting the Jets (4.4 YPP, 29th) twice and other bottom-10 offenses like the Browns (32nd), Raiders (31st), Saints (27th), Panthers (26th) and Bucs (24th). And the Texans, who they saw in the playoffs, were 23rd, the Chargers 21st and the Broncos 16th, and that was with Nix, not Jarrett Stidham. Essentially, the Patriots defense is average at best.

On offense, the Patriots were second at 6.2 YPP, but the Seahawks were fourth at 5.9 YPP, and given the disparate competition, I’ll call that a wash. But as I mentioned, for whatever reason in the Super Bowl, even one of the all-time offenses, Peyton Manning’s 55-TD pass Broncos, got smoked by an elite defense. Defense really does seem disproportionately to win championships.

Seahawks 34 - Patriots 19

So I was watching, but also trying to see the chords on the laptop screen she kept turning toward herself for the lyrics, so it was tough. All I can say is there was a lot of snow on the field, neither offense could do anything and neither kicker could make a field goal. It seemed pointless and arbitrary and pretty much any of the AFC playoff teams except the Steelers and Chargers would make just as good a representative.

I caught Rams-Seahawks the next morning, and by contrast that was a great game. It was the rare close game where you felt like both teams were good, and one of them had to outlast the other, but it would be earned. The only negatives were (1) I can’t bash Sam Darnold anymore or crow about how the idiot midwits wanted him over Saquon Barkley. Yes, it’s eight years later, but no denying Darnold had the talent even if the Jets (and probably the Giants had they taken him) had zero chance of getting it out of him; and (2) Now Erickson is the favorite in our four teams bet as he has the Seahawks.

• The Broncos would have won with Bo Nix. And they’d have a better chance in the Super Bowl than the Pats IMO.

• The Patriots still trust Rhamondre Stevenson, despite the early-season fumbles, much more than TreVeyon Henderson.

• Drake Maye’s biggest plays were with his legs, including the game-sealing scramble for a first down. The conditions will be better in the Super Bowl, but the opposing defense just as good.

• The field goal by which the Patriots won barely made it through. The other four field goal attempts (two more by each team) were missed.

• The Pats only TD was after a fumble recovery on the Broncos’ 12 yard line.

• The Broncos were lucky to have beaten the Bills anyway.

• I felt the Rams blew this game at the end of the first half. They were up 13-10 and forced a punt with 1:41 left in the second quarter. The first play was a hand-off that went for five yards, and it seemed they were being conservative, trying to run clock and go into the half with a lead, maybe play for a field goal. But then they had two incomplete passes, stopping the clock, punted it back to Seattle who drove down for a quick TD to go up 17-13. Either follow up the run with two more runs, or throw on first down. Be aggressive or run clock, but make up your mind.

• The other big play was the muffed punt in the second half that led to another Seattle TD. The returner slipped but once he did, he should have rolled out of the way. Slipping on a punt is no big deal as long as you don’t touch it! (Just watched the replay again, and it was pretty bang-bang, the slip and the ball arriving, but should have bailed the second he lost his footing.)

• I felt like the muffed punt was offset by a taunting call that kept a Rams drive alive and led to a TD. It was after a third-down incompletion that would have resulted in a punt, so it was basically a turnover. Why the NFL allows taunting to affect real game results is baffling. Fine a guy, electroshock his nuts, whatever, but for the love of God do not decide games based on taunting.

• Stafford and Darnold both had monster games against good defenses. Darnold took a few big sacks, but no picks, and he fell on a bad snap quickly in the first half.

• JSN and Puka Nacua also showcased themselves massively in this spot. It was obvious why they were WR1 and WR2 this year.

• Kenny Walker looked like a quicker mini Derrick Henry in the first half, just running over and through people, but got slowed down in the second.

• The Super Bowl line opened at 4.5. I thought it would be Pats +7, and am almost certainly taking Seattle which has the better defense.

The other two were even odder. The Broncos moved on to host the AFC title game, but lost Bo Nix for the year. Seems like they’re drawing dead, but the line in Denver was only 4.5, so maybe they could win with running and defense and get blown out in the Super Bowl.

The other controversy about that game was the overtime pick by Josh Allen that Brandin Cooks caught and handed to the DB as he was going down. I thought the call was right at the time — had Cooks hit the ground and dropped it, they’d have called it incomplete, so if he dropped it into the DB’s hands, it’s a pick. But apparently (I saw only the 40-minute edited version) they rushed the call and never showed a full replay, so people were suspicious. As I said it seemed okay to me given the usual problems with the “What is a catch?” nonsense with which we’ve lived the last 15 years. (Not nearly as retarded as the “What is a woman?” discourse probably five percent of people take seriously but another 20 percent of pussified midwits still pretend is legitimate, though that’s a topic for my other Substack.)

Finally there was Rams-Bears which had a similar ending and a similar controversial play with Davante Adams making a catch, going down and losing the ball to a DB, but it was called a catch instead of a pick. I think the difference was that Adams caught it on his feet, and his knee touched down before he lost the ball, so the play was over, whereas Cooks caught the ball off his feet, so the catch wouldn’t count unless he survived contact with the ground, and he lost the ball before surviving it. If you have a problem with it take it up with the menstruating and mostly non-menstruating individuals on the rules committee.

• The Niners got smoked from the outset when Rashid Shaheed took the opening kickoff to the house. The Niners have a bright future so long as they figure out a way to turn off that WMD powerplant next to their stadium. Hilarious how the legacy media sycophants rushed in to debunk that speculation, questioning the credentials of the OP too. Whether or not that’s contributing to the soft tissue injuries, I don’t know, but I do know for sure those apparatchiks writing for the Washington Post have zero clue, either. Make sure you don’t fall for the lab leak conspiracy theory!

• Kenny Walker looks like a playoff league winner, when everyone else had JSN. They also seemed to save Cooper Kupp for the playoffs.

• This will sound weird, but I saw some online photos from a Hamptons party (this summer?) and all the most famous celebrities, rappers, Kardashian types were there. Even Tom Brady, sad to say, but he’s retired. But I was surprised to see Stroud there, and it occurred to me this isn’t good for a young player. I’m not implying he was doing drugs or anything inappropriate with underage coeds, just seemed like the wrong place for a serious athlete in his prime to be spending time, even in the summer. (Again, it was one party, one day, might be nothing, but I remembered it.)

• People are killing DeMeco Ryans for punting down 12 with four minutes and one timeout left, but it was 4th-and-18 in the snow with no Nico Collins. Chances of making that aren’t that much better than getting a muffed punt or a fumble from your defense, and if you do it’s 40 yards down the field. I agree they should probably have gone for it, but I don’t think the punt was that crazy.

• Drake Maye’s numbers were decent, given the defense he was up against, but Kayshon Boutte made an unbelievable one-handed catch to beat Derek Stingley for a TD, and Stefon Diggs’ TD catch was also a good one.

• The Pats had the league’s easiest schedule this year, and it’s continued in the playoffs with a Chargers team missing an O-line, the Texans with their QB coughing up the game and the Broncos without their starting QB.

• Josh Allen is going down the Dan Marino career path, only without the Super Bowl appearance. Allen is one of the all-time greats, but even with Patrick Mahomes missing the playoffs, the Bills couldn’t get it done.

• The Bears should’ve gone for two at the end of regulation. I guess with 18 seconds left, you’re vulnerable to the FG, and if you tie it, you encourage them to kneel, but better to win in regulation and lessen the wear and tear on your team. Plus, all things roughly equal, choose the option that takes more balls.

• Caleb Williams made an unbelievable throw on fourth down (the game-tying TD to Cole Kmet) for the second week in a row, but the Rams DBs were standing around like idiots. In fairness, no one thought he could get that off running backward under so much pressure, but play to the whistle, especially with a Josh Allen or Williams under center.

• Williams’ soul-crushing pick in overtime was apparently DJ Moore’s fault as the area of the field was open, and Moore made a slow and lazy cut.

• Matthew Stafford made the throws he had to make in tough conditions. The Bears at home in freezing weather were not an easy out.

• Kyren Williams is a rock solid back. Somehow he’s durable at his size, and he always seems to make the right cut, away from the defenders.

• In the Erickson bet, I have the Rams, Pats and Broncos left, and he has the Seahawks. (I lost the Packers last week.) The Seahawks are the most favored, but I’m roughly a 2:1 favorite now given I’ll have the AFC team for sure and it’s about 45 percent I lock it up with the Rams. (The Nix injury hurts me though because if Seattle and Denver win, I’m probably toast.)

• Woody Marks ran with purpose and elusiveness. Where the hell was this during the regular season when he was on all my teams?

• Nico Collins did almost nothing, but Christian Kirk had a monster game, making big plays all over the field.

• Stroud made some decent throws, but two lost fumbles and a senseless pick were poor. It didn’t matter against the Steelers, but in New England he’ll have to play a much tighter game.

• DK Metcalf dropped a pass that would’ve gone for a key first down at the time. He’s a poor man’s AJ Brown, a physical phenom getting older, and not playing consistently when it counts most. But at least Metcalf was man enough to punch that fan a few weeks ago. Whatever happens, no one can say he took shit from that douche.

• Rodgers is still a good ball placer, but the Steelers couldn’t run it, he didn’t have time to throw and no one was open. He and the team were just overmatched. If Rodgers decides to retire, it’s not an ideal way to go out, but he got a mediocre team to the playoffs, so it could have been a lot worse.

Most people, I’d imagine, feel the opposite — that these back and forth close games are entertaining and exciting. But to me a close game is only great if the two teams playing in it blew out some prior opponents to get there.

I don’t know. I remember bad Super Bowls in the ‘80s that were all blowouts, but you got the sense that whoever won was decisively the best team that year. They were the Goliaths you’d have to slay in next year’s playoffs. The year the Giants won their second Super Bowl, they beat a Bills team that had beaten the 13-4 Raiders 51-3 in the AFC Championship game. That meant something, even though they won it on a missed FG. But now that every game, it seems, is decided by that margin, it all blends together. A million what-ifs, woulda/coulda/shouldas.

• Puka Nacua didn’t have that great of a real-life game. Only 111 yards on 18 targets. The Panthers also held Davante Adams to 72 yards on 13 targets. The Rams still found a way to win, but it was dicey with a minute to go and LA needing a TD.

• The Rams defense has fallen off a lot during the second half of the year. They’re more like the 49ers than the Seahawks at this point.

• I had left Bryce Young for dead again this year, but he keeps scratching against the roof of the coffin, and I’m forced to open it back up. I don’t know if he’s good, but I also can’t say for sure he’s bad. He makes plays, moves well, doesn’t seem to be overwhelmed by the moment. The Panthers easily could have won.

• I had the Packers as one of my four teams in the Erickson bet, and I also used Jordan Love as one of my QBs in the NFFC postseason contest, so I was rooting for them. Thought I was good too at 21-3 and also when Matthew Golden made by far the biggest play of his career to put the Packers ahead 27-16 with 6:36 left.

• In this coin flip version of the NFL, the kicker is more valuable than ever. Brandon McManus cost them seven points with three easy misses. Even if he misses one of three kicks, they’re tied.

• When all of their receivers are healthy, the Packers have the deepest corps in the league with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Golden, Romeo Doubs and eventually tight end Tucker Kraft. They can all play.

• Love the post-game video of Ben Johnson saying “Fuck the Packers, I hate those guys!” Rivalries where the teams genuinely don’t like each other are self-evidently good for the game.

• Caleb Williams made an unbelievable throw under pressure on 4th-and-8 to Rome Odunze to keep the game alive. A year ago, anyone would have taken Jayden Daniels in real life over Williams, and now it’s 180 degrees the opposite. Hard to doubt Williams after that game — if GMs were drafting the entire league from scratch he’d be a top-five pick for sure.

• Think we have our TE3 for next year’s drafts locked in: Colston Loveland will go after Trey McBride and Brock Bowers.

• As I said, I didn’t watch much of Bills-Jaguars (Sasha had a basketball game during it), but looking at the. box score, I feel like I can imagine how it went.

• I would have been 1-4 ATS this weekend, wrong about everything except the Pats, but I didn’t place any bets.

• I only saw part of Eagles-49ers. Read that George Kittle tore his EMF-weakened Achilles tendon. Feel badly for the 49ers training staffs the last decade, probably got the blame for what might be an environmental pollution issue. Obviously we can’t know whether that’s what’s caused the team’s myriad catastrophic injuries the last half decade, but put it this way, if I were a player I’d pick another team if I had the choice.

• In postseason drafts, where you take a player and get his points for however many games he plays, the best values are often superstars who drop because they play for underdogs. But if the dog wins two games, that guy usually wins you the league. I’m talking about newly EMF-resistant Christian McCaffrey who had 29.4 PPR points and now gets at least a second game, albeit on the road against a nasty defense.

• I’m glad to be rid of the Eagles and their unwatchable style of play. Jalen Hurts is a good caretaker, but he’s not who you want to have to lead the team from behind. Apparently he had all day to throw, though was the victim of some AJ Brown drops.

• The Chargers should have just gone with Trey Lance and had him read option run every play. What’s the point of putting your star QB back there to get killed every down? None of the wide receivers could be relevant under those conditions, either.

• Drake Maye was okay — he had one pick and an inexcusable fumble with the game largely salted away — he was lucky one of his teammates recovered. But the Chargers pass defense is also good.

• I read the Chargers offense couldn’t figure out the Patriots coverages as they were so well disguised. Mike Vrabel played for Bill Belichick, and Belichick used to destroy young QBs, something to keep in mind if they draw CJ Stroud and/or Bo Nix.

• I expect the Texans to cover tonight, but I’m rooting for Aaron Rodgers.