10 Bold Predictions
It’s always good to do these no matter how poorly you fare because it gives you perspective in the future for all those things you really, really really think are true, but then turn out not to be. It’s probably a mistake to put “10” because maybe I only have three or 11 things in a given year, and you don’t want to force anything just to fit a format.
Last year’s weren’t bad — I crushed three of them (including the last one), and I was close on a few others.
Here are a few for this year:
Fernando Tatis is this year’s Ronald Acuna — he’s two years removed from his injury/suspension, got the warm-up season out of the way last year the way Acuna did in 2022 and is completely healthy and playing a less demanding defensive position (RF) this year. Remember, Tatis was going No. 1 overall not two years ago, and he’s still only 25.
Juan Soto is this year’s Aaron Judge (2022) — Soto is 25, hits lefty in Yankee Stadium in front of Judge and is playing on a one-year deal for a mega contract. I could see a 50-120-140-.320-18-type year, kind of like what Judge had.
Jackson Chourio is this year’s Corbin Carroll — Chourio went 22-42 in 122 games as a 19-year old at Double-A last year, and he’s been signed to a multi-year deal on the rebuilding Brewers, so unless he falls on his face, he’ll play every day, half the time in a good hitter’s park.
Yu Darvish (ADP 142) will have a better year than Cole Ragans (ADP 71). I don’t get the hype with Ragans. He was good for a few months, but still walked too many. Darvish is the ideal veteran coming off a bad year, pitching in a good situation in whom I like to invest.
Walker Buehler (ADP 205) will have a better year than Tarik Skubal (ADP 33). Skubal’s career high is 149 IP, which is about what I expect from Buehler once he gets going after a delayed start. Skubal was great in limited action last year, but Buehler had a 207 IP season in 2021 and has been a top starter for four years before having Tommy John surgery in 2022. I also don’t like that Skubal was touching 100 mph in February — unnecessary and dangerous.
Jarred Kelenic, at a minimum, will go 20-10-.260 this year for the Braves. He was a top prospect, is still only 24, went 11-13-.253 (.746 OPS) last year in 372 at-bats in a bad hitter’s park for a franchise that mistreated him. Now he gets to hit ahead of Ronald Acuna in a loaded lineup in a better park with a fresh start. And I’m not worried about the platoon with Adam Duvall — if Kelenic makes good on his prospect pedigree, he’ll get his at-bats.
Spencer Torkelson (ADP 143) will outearn Vlad Guerrero (ADP 34) — Last year, I picked Matt Olson to beat Guerrero, and that was a landslide, and I’ll go back to the well here. In the second half, Torkelson went .238/.318/.498 with 19 HR, 49 RBI, 45 runs in 273 at-bats. Guerrero went 13-36-36-.251/.346/.444 in 259 at-bats. If you set aside Guerrero’s insane year playing in little league parks, he’s a 30-ish HR hitter when he logs 158-ish games. Guerrero will get him on batting average, steals should be negligible, but Torkelson has more pop, and he’s still getting better.
Teoscar Hernandez will be this year’s Marcel Ozuna — Last year, Ozuna went 40-100-.274, and I expect similar from Hernandez with all those stars hitting ahead of him in the LA lineup. Hernandez also struggled a ton at home last year where he had trouble seeing the ball, but was good on the road, and now he’s out of Seattle for good.
The Shohei Ohtani gambling incident will be memory-holed by baseball and the Dodgers henceforth. This one is hard to quantify, but I suspect Ohtani’s half-assed, question-free press-conference is the last you will ever hear Ohtani, the Dodgers or baseball comment on it, beyond saying, “we’re investigating,” “we’ve investigated” or “we consider it resolved.” This is the last thing they want to deal with, and given how many massive real-world events get memory-holed every week, this is small potatoes.
Some of these predictions will turn out to be wrong — as I always say, it keeps me from going 10 for 10, but also 0-for-10.