10 Bold Predictions
Opening Day Snuck Up On Me
Maybe it’s a bit of a cheat to do this a few days into the season, but I had no idea Opening Day would be on March 26 this year.
I try to make these bold enough that I get most of them wrong. If you’re not getting most wrong, they’re not bold enough! Hits from last year included Bo Bichette outperforming Mookie Betts, Carlos Rodon finishing top-five in CY voting (cheating because technically he finished sixth but crushed his ADP) and Hunter Brown finishing top-five in CY voting (third.) I also had Aroldis Chapman with more saves than Jhoan Duran (they tied.) Misses included Chris Sale finishing as a top-five starter, Jackson Chourio going 30-30-.300, Alex Bregman top-five MVP, Cody Bellinger 40 HR and Tyler Glasnow top-three in CY. Overall, it was a pretty good year as far as bold predictions go.
Also, these are hunches, the explanations for which are largely irrelevant. The relevant information is priced into ADP, so while I’ll justify it one way or another, it’s the prediction itself, not the explanation that matters.
1. Mookie Betts finishes top-10 in NL MVP voting
Betts was the 24th NL hitter by ADP, and of course, a few pitchers could get votes too. I faded Betts, who lost 15 pounds off a 180-pound frame last year due to a spring training illness, and I’m buying back in now that he’s himself again. Shoo-in Hall of Famers typically don’t fall off a cliff at age 33.
2. Adley Rutschman (ADP C11) finishes as a top-five fantasy catcher
This is where he was drafted the last few years, and last year was marred by various injuries. He’s still the same guy and at 28 is in his prime.
3. Kevin Gausman finishes top-five in AL Cy Young votes
This is a slight cheat since Gausman had a strong first outing, but if we were to re-run drafts today with 2026 stats included, he’s still going behind Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown, Max Fried and others. I love veteran pitchers who have figured out their craft, and Gausman is one of them.
4. Teoscar Hernandez cracks 35 homers in 2026
He had only 25 last year and is now 33, but Dodger Stadium is a favorable home run park, Hernandez played through a nagging groin injury and he hits in a lineup where pitchers will often have labored by the time he comes to the plate.
5. George Springer (OF 23) finishes as a top-10 OF again in 2026
Springer has always been fragile, so it’s probably not a coincidence his best year came as the team’s primary DH. Preserve health and the production should continue into his age 36 season a la David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz.
6. At least one of the following veteran pitchers has a top-seven CY finish: Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcantara, Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola, Zac Gallen and Blake Snell.
I made it top seven, not top-five because so many of these guys are missing significant time, but Cole, Bieber, Snell or Rodon might crack top-seven in four months if they return to 100 percent right away.
7. Kenley Jansen (RP 16), Josh Hader (RP 19) or Raisel Iglesias (RP 12) will finish top-three in saves.
I love the old warhorse closers, and I would’ve included Aroldis Chapman were he not drafted so highly this year.
8. Casey Mize (Rd 19) outperforms Eury Perez (Rd 5)
Slow and steady wins the race.
9. Brent Rooker hits 40 HR
Rooker hit 39 two years ago in Oakland Coliseum, only 15 of which were at home, so 40 shouldn’t be a stretch in Sacramento if he has a 70th percentile season.
10. Some of these predictions will be wrong
I’ll pay the cost of never going 10-for-10 to make sure I don’t go 0-for-10.