10 Bold Predictions for 2024

I do this every year, and every year I get at least one correct. Last year, I got exactly one correct and unfortunately it was the surefire prediction that not all of them would be right, i.e., I got really zero correct. But that just goes to show how bold they were. These aren’t layups, more like three pointers and half-court shots. I fared much better the previous two years, so hopefully these will get back on track.

(Actually, probably better to just link to all of them for full transparency: 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014.) I’m not going to argue it matters, or that anyone even clicks through on these, but I want to pat myself on the back for being so organized in archiving my old work.)

1. Stefon Diggs leads the Texans in targets, catches and receiving yards

   Right now, he’s getting drafted more than a round behind Nico Collins and less than a round ahead of Tank Dell. Diggs is 30, but he was one of the league’s best receivers until halfway through last year when the Bills made an offensive play-calling change. Moreover, Diggs is getting paid $22.5 million, so the Texans obviously don’t think he’s washed up, and he’s also in a contract year.

2. CJ Stroud leads the NFL in passing yards

   This is +600 on DraftKings, so the real odds are probably north of 8:1. Stroud adds Diggs to his receiving corps, doesn’t run much and heads into Year 2.

3. Roman Wilson (ADP 211) has more receptions than George Pickens (ADP 47)

   Pickens is a boom or bust downfield playmaker, not high-target alpha, and Wilson is a good fit for the slot for the Steelers new QBs. Think Martavis Bryant not Antonio Brown. (Not that Wilson is Brown!) Van Jefferson isn’t good, and someone will need to fill the void. Moreover, because Pittsburgh has new QBs, neither has an existing rapport with the incumbent Pickens.

4. DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 82) out produces Calvin Ridley (ADP 54) in PPR

   Hopkins wasn’t terrible last year, has a rapport with Will Levis and is a future Hall of Famer who can still run routes. Ridley is already 29 and is just a guy outside of his monster season in 2020.

5. The Giants will field a top-10 fantasy defense.

   I’ve been crushed by my homer bold predictions in the past, but they added Brian Burns to a rush that already had Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux, the offense should be on the field more and generate some leads with a real playmaking receiver in Malik Nabers.

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