Assorted Thoughts
I’m feeling a little remiss about the scarcity of posts of late, but with baseball I have less to say. The NFL has its structured weekly routine, and baseball is just this haphazard marathon with no real demarcations except Opening Day and the All-Star Break.
But I’ll share a few assorted thoughts nonetheless:
I’ve drafted three leagues and am pleased to report I have no Gerrit Cole or Devin Williams. Surely the injury reaper will come for my players soon, as it always does, and even mentioning it is tempting fate. But so far the worst news I’ve had to bear are Josh Lowe’s minor hip injury and Sonny Gray’s “minor” hamstring issue.
I like picking at the back end of the draft. That Ronald Acuna has any issue at all this spring makes me nervous, and I view Fernando Tatis as basically the same as the other guys at the top of the draft like Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt and Corbin Carroll. And Juan Soto is like Mookie Betts (only without the multi-position eligibility.) Bryce Harper isn’t far off, either.
I like the pitchers at the 3-4 turn in the NFBC 12-teamers, but I have to re-think it for the Main Event. If you’re picking 9th, you’ll probably get Tatis or Soto, but you might have to grab Zack Wheeler (if he’s even there) in Round 2, or be prepared to take Max Fried in Round 3 if he’s even there. Last year the pitching inflation was insane, and so I kept punting it every round. Luckily my 3-4 turn punt was Matt Olson and Carroll, and I was able to cash with Dusty Wagner jerry-rigging the pitching.
I hate the players in Rounds 6-8. Mostly closers who are always overpriced, some shaky SPs who are no better than those in Round 10-12 and some boring hitters. If it were an auction I’d pass on that whole tier. But it’s not and you have to take *someone*. I think I feel this way about this tier every year, and it’s probably because it coincides with the drop-off after the plateau in the auctions too, i.e., there’s a point in auctions you have to identify where the big ticket purchases turn into run-of-the-mill ones and no longer command a premium. It’s a gap down, and I think psychologically paying one round less in cost for a player who’s worth $10 less is jarring to me. But it’s the same for everyone and roughly happens in the same part of the draft every season.
I liked it when Carlos Rodon’s velocity was down, and he was available cheap. I think that window’s closing. I don’t know that he’ll be good — or stay healthy — but I do know what it looks like when he is good and healthy.
Spring performance means nothing or something, but it’s hard to tell which is which. Buy low when people think it’s something bad, and avoid when people are sure it’s something good. There are always exceptions to this, however.
I’ve heard people say there’s less than 1 percent chance Trevor Bauer signs somewhere. I think that’s crazy. We don’t have nearly enough information to be that sure about what every GM is thinking. I put it at 10 percent minimum and think he should be drafted.
I think you should largely punt catcher, at least one of them. Gary Sanchez might be a full-time DH at Miller Park, and he’s basically free. The position has never been so deep on paper.
Will Smith is appealing because he’s hitting cleanup behind three of the 10 best hitters in baseball. But keep in mind with Ohtani there, Smith will almost never DH, and catchers need time off.
Speaking of which Ohtani went fourth overall in my last draft. I can’t say it’s wrong as he could be an absolute monster in that lineup with full time DH at-bats.
I wanted to bet Juan Soto for AL MVP, but the Gerrit Cole injury puts me off him, as your team almost always has to make the playoffs in order for you to win.
I want to draft pitchers who were once great, but coming off down years. I don’t even care why so long as they’re healthy. So Rodon, Luis Severino, Chris Sale, etc. will be on a lot of my teams. I’m working up the courage to have a share of Lance Lynn after last year’s debacle but haven’t been able to muster it yet. Often you get Justin Verlander from a few years ago, but other times Patrick Corbin.
I like the Phillies offense and have bought in with shares of Harper, Alec Bohm, and Bryson Stott. It’s should provide plenty of runs and RBIs and wear down opposing pitchers.
Jarred Kelenic is such an obvious post-hype breakout on the Braves, and he’s available so cheaply, I’m sure I must be missing something.
NFL free-agent signing news is depressing — give it an offseason to breathe, it’ll still be there for you when training camps open this summer.