Assorted Thoughts -- 8/24/24
More NFL-related items rattling around my brain:
I have two shares of Ja’Marr Chase in three leagues, and one of CeeDee Lamb. I’m not panicking yet, but the Chase situation worries me a little because Mike Brown is notoriously dumb and cheap. Chase (and Lamb) are no brainer extensions because they’re two of the league’s elite receivers. Brandon Aiyuk, in whom I have no shares, grades out very well per all the metrics, but he’s never been a high-volume alpha like the other two, and his team would probably be okay without him. The one thing going for both Chase and Lamb is both teams are fringe contenders, so presumably they wouldn’t blow up their seasons. But with Brown you never know.
I watched some Jordan Mason clips from the preseason game — he looked good. He’s has to be the No. 2 behind Christian McCaffrey. Elijah Mitchell is too injury prone in any event.
I’m torn on Caleb Williams and the Bears offense. On the one hand they’re loaded now, but on the other the Bears never have a good passing offense, and it might be something that transcends the individual players the way Coors field destroys all pitchers. I have one share of Rome Odunze so far, one of Cole Kmet and that’s it. (Of course, this kind of narrative can be falsified at any time, and Jay Cutler/Josh McCown kind of did it with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery in 2013.)
A lot of people are in on Chris Godwin. I was last year, but I’m out now. He’s another year older, and Jalen McMillan looks good.
I’m in on Tee Higgins at the 4/5 turn. Last year was bad, but he was playing without his QB. He’s the same guy going at the 2/3 turn the last couple years. If Chase were to hold out, even better for him.
I’ve heard a lot of “sharps” are on Xavier Worthy, and I even have a share in the RotoWire Dynasty league. But I don’t see it in Round 6 now. He’s 165 pounds, competing for deep work with Marquise Brown and on the same team as Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Maybe if there are injuries he could blow up, but the ceiling for these types is DeSean Jackson — great real life player, but limited for fantasy. I feel the same way about Tank Dell too. But maybe we’re in a new era where a 165-pound receiver can get 130 targets at high efficiency. The best counter-example is DeVonta Smith who’s 6-0 and only 170 pounds, but has held up well.
I hope to get a share of Dalton Kincaid — he’s the No. 1 receiver in Buffalo, and he could lead all TE in targets. Missed out only because I had early picks, and I would have had to reach nearly a full round. But late fourth/early fifth is good.
If Kirk Cousins is a savior in Atlanta, Kyle Pitts (Round 6) seems like a better gamble than Drake London (Round 2), but I’ve already been burned by the guy so many times.
Running backs are like melting ice cubes — they don’t hold their original form for very long. You know Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Breece Hall probably still have it, but are Travis Etienne and Jonathan Taylor still the same talents they were when they came into the league? It fades that fast sometimes.
The flip side are players like James Conner, Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones who still graded out well despite many years in the league. You know what to do with a declining Alvin Kamara or Ezekiel Elliott (avoid). but older backs who are still good are a harder call. Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon and Saquon Barkley are in the middle.
Jayden Reed is the only Packers receiver I want — Year 2 after a strong rookie season. I don’t trust Christian Watson to stay healthy, and he’s basically the same price.
Just when I was back in on Bijan Robinson with a top three pick, some beat writer projects Tyler Allgeier to split red-zone carries fairly evenly. Maybe Bijan will have the same role as Jahmyr Gibbs.
I can’t imagine drafting any of the Patriots receivers. You don’t know which if any will get enough targets, and even if he does you don’t know if it’ll be usable.
I’m warming back up to DeAndre Hopkins in Round 8. Calvin Ridley was disappointing last year, and Hopkins wasn’t terrible.
Even though I’m a resentful Giants fan, Evan Engram (143 targets, 114 catches) seems cheap in late six. The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley and replaced him with Gabe Davis and a rookie deep threat, i.e., Engram projects for at least 130 more targets. Like everyone else, I might gamble on Pitts’ ceiling rather than take the sure thing, but it’s kind of dumb.