Assorted Thoughts -- Part 2
Now that I drew my NFBC Main slot (13th), I’ve been going through the player pool all over again with a finer tooth comb.
Here are some thoughts on it:
Spencer Strider should maybe be 1.1 over Ronald Acuna in the Main, even if Acuna should still be ahead of him in the 12-teamers. With all the pitching inflation in the Main, a greater portion of the overall dollars goes to it than in the 12. If you were calculating dollar values and had a 68/32 split in the 12 and a 62/38 split in the Main, it would push Strider’s value up and Acuna’s down in the Main, relative to the 12. And when you take Gerrit Cole and Eury Perez out of the pool, even more of that budget goes toward the remaining top starters. In fact, you can make an argument that Strider is Tier 1, there is no Tier 2, Burnes and Wheeler are Tier 3 and the rest of the pool starts in Tier 4.
I’m probably out on Jose Ramirez and Corbin Burnes at the turn. Ramirez could easily go 25-25 with 85 RBI/runs, and that’s just not enough for that pick. Burnes’ performance slipped a bit last year. I like the move to Baltimore, but he merited a pick at the turn last year, and his stock should be lower now.
I’m open to Austin Riley at pick 18. Corners are scarce, and he’s been a rock.
Even though I wanted to pick No. 2 for Strider, I hate the players late-second, early-third except Yoshinobu Yamamoto and maybe Francisco Lindor. I’m warming up to Corey Seager and souring on Michael Harris (similar to Jose Ramirez, with less power.) I have no idea why Vlad Guerrero goes in the second round. I see him more like fifth.
C.J. Abrams is Elly De la Cruz without the demotion risk and one round cheaper.
I hope Kevin Gausman doesn’t slip to me if I go H-H because I don’t want him, but would have a hard time passing on him.
I’m back in on Bo Bichette, but might have to take pitchers at the 3-4 turn.
I’m out on Randy Arozarena at the 3-4 turn. I’d need more batting average for those modest counting stats in Tampa.
I’m mostly out on the young hard-throwing phenoms like Tarik Skubal and Grayson Rodriguez. Too much injury risk for that price. Bobby Miller probably too.
I don’t understand the Cole Ragans hype — would have him in the 12th round or so.
I love Chris Sale types, but sixth round seems steep. Give me Carlos Rodon in Round 10, which is the same kind of bet.
I can’t draft Max Muncy or Kyle Schwarber in an overall contest.
I’d probably be the sucker who takes Wyatt Langford, but I don’t have to be because he’s expensive enough. The worst analysis though is, “How can he return a profit at that price?” What, you think he’s only capable of returning some nerd’s projections for him? If he goes 30-20-280, that’ll be a massive profit in Rd 6. And of course, that’s in the range of plausible outcomes even if it’s not the *most likely* one.
I have Josh Lowe in two leagues, so that injury hurts a bit, but I was smart enough to dodge the other surprise injuries like Jhoan Duran, Devin Williams and Gerrit Cole. Never take the guy who out of nowhere is out for months.
I hate delving deeply into the player pool because I start seeing the case for too many people at ADP. Do I actually like them, or am I just willing to hold my nose and draft if the players I do like are gone?
Marcel Ozuna seems too cheap. I have him in one league.
I like the idea of stacking Phillies. Could get Trea Turner/Bryce Harper in 1-2, and Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott later. Out on Nick Castellanos and Schwarber though. J.T. Realmuto is a bit pricey for me too.
The Cardinals are another interesting stack because they had such a down year last year. Paul Goldschmidt (getting old), Nolan Arenado, Jordan Walker and Willson Contreras are pretty affordable. Not that you have to stack.
I’m warming up to some boring players like Anthony Santander and Jose Berrios. I usually want to win the league with every pick, but I’m in on a couple of those building blocks again.
I faded catchers in my 12s, but in the 15 there’s a steeper price for doing so. But there’s also a reward for fading them in a format where you’re always going to be thin somewhere and get both from Rds 25-30.
Esteury Ruiz is more rosterable in the 15 than the 12 because you can afford to be weak in power in one slot. But you’d have to build your team in such a way that he’d be a must-have player and reach for him a round early. Put differently, you can’t build to get him with say Yordan Alvarez/Austin Riley and then not get him.
There’s one player that really jumped out at me during this latest round of research, but I can’t say who he is because some of my competitors in the league read these posts. But it was eye-opening.
I’ll probably another one of these as I go back over the players in Rounds 15-30.