Beat Chris Liss 1.

Livestream and Results

I did my first NFBC draft of the year last night. Greg Ambrosius joined me on the livestream (which didn’t work, so I had to post it later.) But here’s the video of it, if you’re interested:

I drew the eighth spot.

Here are the results:

1.8 Jose Ramirez — I had expected to get Tarik Skubal per the ADP I had downloaded, but there are only a few Online Championship drafts per week in the first half of February, so the ADP is not that reliable yet. Skubal went fifth, someone took Julio Rodriguez a few picks early at six, and Ramirez, who wasn’t even on my radar, fell to me. It was kind of a relief as the Skubal build is harder, and I was a bit unprepared in this first draft. Ramirez gets you the power/speed/runs base you need to have flexibility later. Also the steals from 3B are more valuable than steals from MI or OF which you can get more easily.

2.5 Vladimir Guerrero — I built a custom projections/ADP cheat sheet for this draft, leaning more heavily on projections (Ariel Cohen’s ATC which is an aggregate of various projection systems), and it loved Guerrero. On the hybrid cheat sheet (the one I was mostly using, he was 14th overall, but in the projections alone he was 12, and that was after boosting steals to 1.3x to account for the NFBC overall.)

3.8 Bryan Woo — I was set to take Edwin Diaz, but he went one pick before me, considered Yordan Alvarez, but Woo was the highest player on my sheet by far, as the projections had him 20th overall, despite my apportioning only 30 percent of the spend for pitchers. His ADP was 42, so I probably could have waited on him until the fourth round.

4.5 Andres Munoz — The Woo pick ended up being fine as I needed a closer, and I like Munoz as much as the other third-round closers I would have taken instead of him. But maybe an Alvarez/Woo turn would have been better.

5.8 Mookie Betts — This was the one guy I had to have, and I even considered jumping him to the fourth round, but when you’re winging it in your first draft of the year, you don’t want to get too aggressive. Later on, when you’ve mastered the player pool, you can do things like that, but I decided to gamble on him being there in the fifth, and he was. Betts was going in the first round last year but had his season derailed by an illness that caused him to drop 15 pounds. The guy is only about 185, so that’s a huge drop. He’s healthy now, and at 33, he’s due for a major correction. While many players are in decline at that age, Betts is a shoo-in Hall of Famer, and players of that caliber are usually good until their late 30s. He’s badly mispriced IMO, maybe belongs in the middle of the third.

6.5 Logan Webb — Webb was 28th in the projections and 38 on my hybrid sheet, so he was an easy call here, as I needed a second starter too.

7.8 Jarren Duran — Framber Valdez was higher on the sheet, but it’s based on hitters and pitchers being sorted separately, so sometimes you have clusters of pitchers who are all higher than similar hitters, and I wanted to be mindful of that. Moreover, I had no outfielders at this point, two aces and plenty of sleeper pitchers in later rounds. And I needed more steals.

8.5 Randy Arozarena — This isn’t a player I would normally draft, but he was near the top of the hybrid sheet, I had batting average to burn, needed more outfielders and wanted more speed/power.

9.8 Oneil Cruz — Talk about spending that early batting average edge. Surprisingly he was near the top of the sheet, and I imagine the .200 from last year was a BABIP-driven fluke. In this environment, .230 is survivable if he duplicates the power/speed from 2025. Now I was flush with outfielders and tons of steaks.

10.5 Yanier Diaz — This pick was perfect. I needed a catcher and was wary of the batting average risk from the prior two picks. Diaz can hit .270 from the catcher spot which is like .290 from an outfield spot.

11.8 Kevin Gausman — I love old veteran pitchers, needed more strikeouts and innings. Gausman is typically a horse.

12.5 Adley Rutschman — I had planned to take Kenley Jansen here, but he was gone, so I pivoted to Rutschman who is a good bounce-back candidate after an injury-plagued 2025. He still gets on base and should hit near the top of the lineup. It was nice to be set at catcher too.

13.8 Pablo Lopez — I missed the more fun pick, Jacob Misiorowski by one spot, but pivoted to Lopez who was going in the third or fourth round not long ago. He’s was good when healthy last year, and is apparently healthy for the time being.

14.5 Ryan Walker — I needed a second closer, and he is one. I like the ballpark too.

15.8 Brandon Lowe — This was kind of a clock-winding-down panic pick. I needed a second baseman, was a little light on pop and heavy on steals so it fits though. Yes, I have Ramirez, Guerrero, Arozarena, Betts, Cruz and two functional catchers, but without a Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, you need power depth.

16.5 Ezequiel Tovar — Another last year’s bum the cheat sheet liked with enough pop who shouldn’t hurt my average while playing in Coors.

17.8 Mike Trout — Why not? He’s still got 30-HR power over a full season, and even if he plays 120 games, I’ll have plenty of options to sub in for him. And what if he pulls a Byron Buxton and miraculously stays healthy?

18.5 Daylen Lile — All the guy did last year was rake, and he could even chip in with some steals without hurting my average.

19.8 Matthew Boyd — Another veteran pitcher coming off a good year in a soft division. He’s also a lefty who somehow managed to increase his velocity last year.

20.5 Jake Burger — Another last year’s bum, healthy now, who showed real pop despite playing in Florida for a couple years.

21.8 Logan Henderson — The Brewers are good at developing pitchers, and Henderson had a strong 2025 in the minors and majors.

22.5 Kyle Manzardo — I needed a UT, and I wanted one with some pop. He’s only 25 too, so there might be another level in him.

23.8 Luis Garcia — This was a bench pick as I still needed one more pitcher, but he seemed cheap at this price, given the power/speed combo from second base. Plus, second base was one of my weaker positions, and I wanted the depth.

24.5 Shane Bieber — He’s dealing with some “fatigue” after last year’s playoffs, but even if he misses a few weeks in April, the upside is worth it at this price.

25.8 Tyler Mahle — I always used to ask Jeff Erickson during our SXM show whether he was “high on Mahle” and for that reason alone, this is a good pick. But he also pitched well when healthy last year and finds himself in a good park.

26.5 Trent Grisham — Last year’s power came out of nowhere, so people are fading him, but this seemed like the right price to grab a guy who for whatever reason hit 34 homers in a ballpark that’s friendly to lefties. He has to hit .230 and not .190 though.

27.8 Justin Steele — No one can argue he’s not the Steele of the draft. Another once dominant veteran who’s dealing with an injury. There’s a chance he’s back in late April if things go smoothly. If not, drop.

28.5 Lucas Giolito — Another veteran pitcher who was once good. He’s unsigned as of now, but I imagine he’ll wind up somewhere in the next few weeks.

29.8 Dylan Beavers — If you see your roster as a dam, what would you need to build it? Beavers. He’s a real prospect though with a shot at regular playing time.

30.5 Nolan Gorman — I was this close to taking Justin Verlander just to annoy Ryan Garofalo (who has no choice but to accept and run this team), but I went Gorman who qualifies as a backup at second and third. He could also hit 30 HR, but batting average is the issue.

Roster By Position:

C Yaniel Diaz/Adley Rutschman

1B Vlad Guerrero

2B Brandon Lowe

3B Jose Ramirez

SS Mookie Betts

CI Jake Burger

MI Ezeqiuel Tovar

OF Jarren Duran/Randy Arozarena/Oneil Cruz/Mike Trout/Daylen Lile

UT Kyle Manzardo

SP Bryan Woo/Logan Webb/Kevin Gausman/Pablo Lopez/Matthew Boyd/Logan Henderson/Shane Bieber

RP Andres Munoz/Ryan Walker

B Luis Garcia/Tyler Mahle/Trent Grisham/Justin Steele/Lucas Giolito/Dylan Beavers-Nolan Gorman