Beat Chris Liss 1 (Results)

Masterpiece

I did my first NFBC draft Sunday night — I drew the 12th pick. Here’s the link to the live-stream.

The full results are below:

This draft went about as well as I could have hoped, especially given how little I had prepared. That doesn’t mean the team is *good*, only that I didn’t have any major regrets or gaffes, something that’s rare over 30 rounds.

I also never once got sniped on a pick. I got priced out of the top closers early, but rolled with it in the way one should when that happens, getting players I wanted and doubling back to closers when I needed to.

This team is built to win the overall — high-risk, high reward, an exercise in imagining not what could go wrong, not what’s the base case, but what could go right.

The Draft

1.12 Julio Rodriguez — I had mapped out the first 10 rounds, decided on Rodriguez and Jackson Chourio ahead of time. I knew Chourio would be there, per ADP, but if Rodriguez were gone, I’d have gone with Mookie Betts. I wanted two OF with power and speed to start my draft. Rodriguez had 32 homers and 37 steals as a 22-year old in 2023, was going in the 2-4 overall range last year and nothing that happened since should move the needle much heading into his age 24 season.

2.1 Jackson Chourio — Chourio had 21 homers and 22 steals as a 20-year-old rookie, and those numbers were weighed down by a slow start where the Brewers were constantly pulling him from the lineup for no reason. From June until the end of the year, he hit .303 and should only get better in Year 2. His healthy floor is 25-25, and there’s stolen base and batting average upside.

3.12 Matt Olson — While Rodriguez and Chourio offer solid pop, I wanted a 40-HR type to compensate for the lack of top-end power with my first two picks, while filling the scarce-in-recent-years 1B slot. Olson had an off year in 2024, but chalk that up to variance. I still like him in that park and lineup.

4.1 Jacob deGrom — I’m not here to win the $1500 league prize but the $150K overall. deGrom isn’t just the best pitcher in baseball when he’s healthy, he’s one of the best in baseball history. If I get 100 IP of vintage deGrom, that’s worth a fourth-round pick. At 130-150, it’s a first-rounder. I also like that he’s nearly two years out from Tommy John surgery, pitched at the end of last season and is healthy now. While there’s no chance of 200 IP, he’s also not a rookie they need to ramp up slowly, but a veteran with a massive contract, i.e., the Rangers will want to get their money’s worth if he’s dealing.

5.12 Gerrit Cole — When Raisel Iglesias went four picks ahead of me, I was pretty sure I was going Cole who typically goes in the first or second round. Cole had an off year, but the sample was small as he missed time due to a nerve issue in the spring, and there wasn’t much of a drop-off from 2023, even with the irregular start to the year. Pitchers ebb and flow with health, and the light workload might redound to his benefit.

6.1 Teoscar Hernandez — This was just a value-take in the sixth round. Hernandez gives you pop, runs a little and hits in the best lineup in baseball.

7.12 Will Smith — I didn’t love the options in these rounds, so I punted and nabbed a solid catcher with 20-HR pop. I don’t really see the difference between Smith and Adley Rutschman who goes two rounds earlier either.

8.1 Max Fried — With deGrom shaky on innings, and five hitters in my first seven picks, I wanted another horse to anchor the rotation. I like lefties in Yankee Stadium too.

9.12 Royce Lewis — I needed a third baseman, and Lewis, who was going in the fifth round last year, was the one with the most upside. The key is that he’s healthy now, as he finished the season in the lineup and hasn’t had a setback this offseason. Lewis is a potential 30-HR/.290 bat if he can hold up for 140-odd games.

10.1 Spencer Strider — As I said, I’m trying to win the overall. Strider will start the year on the DL, but the timetable for the type of surgery he had is roughly one year, and Strider’s was in mid-April, i.e., there’s no reason he shouldn’t be back in May and might even see some action in spring training. If I get 220 combined IP from deGrom and Strider at their former levels, that’s worth the 1.1. (The “former levels” part is the rub, but as I said I’m focused on what could go right.) I also thought about Shane McClanahan instead, but narrowly opted for Strider.

11.12 Luis Garcia — I was set to take Brice Turang here to lock down speed and finally get a middle infielder, but I pivoted at the last second to Garcia who is a better-rounded hitter and more likely to have a prominent spot in his lineup.

12.1 Jared Jones — He was on my list because I remembered the hype after his strong start, and the cost seemed cheap relative to his skills. I almost took Carlos Rodon, as I prefer veterans. Maybe that will turn out to have been a mistake.

13.12 Brice Turang — What do you know, Turang made it all the way back. I guess people didn’t like his second-half collapse at the plate. But Turang is a gold glove defender, and he stole 50 bags last year. That glove keeps him in the lineup and should set a nice 30-steal floor.

14.1 Kenley Jansen — I could play closer chicken no more. Jansen is my favorite type of old warhorse closer, a guy so used to the job, he’s not going to lose it unless his stuff is truly gone.

15.12 Jordan Romano — Romano got $8.5 million from the Phillies, so I’m assuming he’s (a) healthy and (b) set to close. His ERA while pitching hurt for 14 innings last year is irrelevant.

16.1 Zach Neto — I needed a shortstop, and while Neto’s hurt right now, he went 23-30 as a 23-year old last year, and I couldn’t pass him up. I almost took Ceddanne Rafaela, but Neto’s upside higher.

17.12 Ceddanne Rafaela — Turns out Rafaela fell to me anyway, and I snapped him up, as I’ll need a SS early in the year with Neto presumably out. Rafaela went 15-19 as a 23-YO in his own right, also qualifies in the OF and his gold-glove-level defense should keep him in the lineup.

18.1 Josh Jung — I needed a CI, and also a backup 3B for the injury-prone Royce Lewis, so I took the injury-prone Jung. The key facts about Jung and Lewis are both can hit, and both are healthy as of right now. My team seems like it has a lot of injuries, but only Strider and Neto are hurt now. There is a difference between injury risk (deGrom, Lewis, Jung, Romano) and already injured. You can often find value by exploiting people’s conflation of those two related, but distinct categories.

19.12 Jesus Luzardo — Another skilled, but injury-prone player coming at a steep discount who is healthy now.

20.1 Lucas Erceg — A speculative closer play. Right now Carlos Estevez, who went in Round 15, is probably the favorite, but who knows?

21.12 Walker Buehler — More of the same theme. A player (especially a pitcher) who has shown elite skills, was derailed by injuries, but who is healthy now.

22.1 Nolan Jones — I had almost forgotten he existed, but there he was in Round 22, just one year removed from being a fifth-round pick after a 20-20-.297 season. Jones is only 26 and healthy as of now.

23.12 Griffin Jax — A setup guy with elite stuff, behind a closer that had nine losses and a 1.16 WHIP last year.

24.1 Garrett Mitchell — I took him narrowly over Jordan Walker. Mitchell went 8-11 in 224 at-bats, plays in a good park and has the physical tools to be good.

25.12 Bo Naylor — I needed a second catcher, and he is one. Naylor has a little pop, even runs a bit and should improve in his age 25 season.

26.1 Max Scherzer — Are we sure he’s done? He had a 1.15 WHIP last year and 40K in 43 IP despite returning from back surgery. He’s healthy now and signed a $15.5M deal this offseason presumably to pitch more than 100 innings.

27.12 Justin Verlander — Wait, they let me have deGrom, Cole, Strider, Buehler, Scherzer and Verlander? Those were like the top-six pitchers on the board a few years ago! Seriously though, Verlander is in a good park, and last year’s poor numbers were put up over a 90-inning sample while battling various ailments. He’s more likely to be done than Scherzer, but he knows how to pitch, and it’s just a matter of the stuff returning to above the minimum threshold. I wouldn’t be shocked to see one more strong year out of the 41-YO future Hall of Famer.

28.1 Jose Caballero — I drafted this gentleman in the 28th round because he qualifies everywhere and steals a lot of bases.

29.12 Nolan Gorman — The Cardinals want to get him regular at-bats, and there’s a 35-HR, .240 season somewhere in this skill set.

30.1 Gavin Lux — A big-time prospect that’s only shown flashes, should get regular playing time and a big upgrade in park. He might eventually qualify at some other positions too.

Roster By Position

C Will Smith/Bo Naylor

1B Matt Olson

2B Luis Garcia

3B Royce Lewis

SS Zach Neto

CI Josh Jung

MI Brice Turang

OF Julio Rodriguez/Jackson Chourio/Teoscar Hernandez/Ceddanne Rafaela/Nolan Jones

UT Garrett Mitchell

SP Jacob deGrom/Gerrit Cole/Max Fried/Spencer Strider/Jared Jones/Jesus Luzardo/Walker Buehler

RP Kenley Jansen/Jordan Romano

B Lucas Erceg/Griffin Jax/Max Scherzer/Justin Verlander/Jose Caballero/Nolan Gorman/Gavin Lux