Beat Chris Liss 2

Thoughts And Observations Ahead of the Draft

I’m drafting this tomorrow night, picking out of the 10-hole. I probably should have announced it here, but it filled up so quickly I didn’t get around to it.

I have my plan for the first 4-6 rounds or so. I need to research closers a little bit more, but otherwise, I’m more or less prepared.

When you pick late in the first round, you usually miss out on the early big steals guys (Ronald Acuna, Bobby Witt, Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, Kyle Tucker and maybe Fernando Tatis). The players going later run a little less, so you have to keep an eye on steals more in the middle rounds.

You’re also likely to miss out on Spencer Strider, though you’ll get a shot at Gerrit Cole if you want him, maybe two shots. If Strider falls to 10, you can probably double up, but I won’t be doing that. I like too many pitching values later in the draft.

I love Shohei Ohtani on the Dodgers — he might score 130 runs if he stays healthy all year. But starting with a DH is far from ideal. I’m only taking Ohtani at 10 if the draft goes in such a way that my two other targets are gone (I’d say 20 percent chance that happens.)

Round 2, I like Bryce Harper even though I took him already in BCL1. He’s essentially Freddie Freeman, but younger, maybe with slightly less batting average and more power. If Harper’s gone, I’d consider Cole, but I’d rather get a hitter. Yordan Alvarez and Matt Olson are fine picks, but unlike Harper they don’t run at all. I’m out on Jose Ramirez — think there’s a ceiling on his counting stats in that park and lineup. Worst case, I take Alvarez or Olson and have to target steals aggressively in Rounds 3-12. I’d snap-call Trea Turner if he drops too, but that probably won’t happen.

Getting Harper with say Ohtani gives you a base of 40-odd steals, a good start with everything else they provide.

It’s good to have a plan, but you have to be ready for the unforeseeable too. In BCL1, Carroll fell to pick eight, and that meant steals weren’t as big a priority as I had expected. Actually, I didn’t know ADP for that draft, so I wasn’t thinking that way at the time, but I had Corbin as the No. 3 overall pick, so I was surprised to get him.

Other random thoughts:

• Give me old pitchers and young hitters — pitching is cerebral and more of a craft, whereas hitting is bat speed, eye-sight, eye-hand coordination and instinct. Plus, young pitchers need to get past that first Tommy John surgery, and young hitters are more likely to run.

• Give me good pitchers with average velocity. All things being equal, I’d rather have a stud pitcher who throws 93-95 than 96-98, especially if he’s under 30. I think there’s less chance for injury.

• I’ll draft a young pitcher, even one with high velocity if he’s 2-4 years removed from Tommy John which seems like a sweet spot.

• I like old warhorse closers, the Kenley Jansens and Craig Kimbrels. Closing is mental, and demeanor helps you keep the job as the manager will instinctively trust and stick with you. I avoid the young dominant-stuff phenoms for whom you pay top dollar until they do it for a few years.

• I avoid pitchers on dregs-of-the-league teams. Non-elite starters really contribute in two categories (wins and Ks). If his team is terrible, you’re down to only one. And closers are a tough sell on a team that wins 60 games, though more of their wins will entail saves as they’re not blowing anyone out. But forget about committee situations on 60-win teams.

• I cross off all the long-term injured pitchers like Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw. You can’t clog a roster slot for that long.

• I’ll probably wait on catchers. It’s deep this year, and I can find two I like enough later.

• I’d prefer to get my OF and corners early, my middles late. There’s always depth at MI, it seems.

• None of these rules is absolute, and you should always break them if your instincts tell you to.