Beat Chris Liss 2

This draft took place on February 28 at noon ET. I drew the 10th spot. Here are the results:

1.10 Fernando Tatis — I was hoping for Tatis or Juan Soto with Shohei Ohtani being my fallback if both were gone. After Freddie Freeman went at pick 7, I was actually worried both would be available, and I’d have to choose between them. But Soto went pick 9, so Tatis was an easy call. I think 30-30 is a lock if he stays healthy, and I have a bit of a second-year-back Ronald Acuna 2023 vibe. (But I also think Soto will win MVP in Yankee Stadium.)

2.3 Yordan Alvarez — I was hoping to get Bryce Harper, but after he went at the turn I had a shot at Ohtani. I don’t know if the guy who took Ohtani wants his name mentioned, but I was pretty sure he would take him. That left me three choices, Matt Olson, Alvarez and Gerrit Cole. I had mostly sworn off Cole there because I liked too many pitchers at the 3-4 turn, so I was leaning Olson. But Tatis’ batting average could go either way, so I decided to opt for the better average over the durability and higher power ceiling. Really a coin flip.

3.10 Yoshinobu Yamamoto — I dug into him last week and decided I was in. I like unusual players, and he’s one with his odd delivery and diminutive stature. I also like his chance for wins on the Dodgers.

4.3 Tyler Glasnow — With Tatis, Alvarez and Glasnow this is a pretty fragile team, but Glasnow has league-winning upside, and the downside between third and last place is zero besides some small side bets.

5.10 Jazz Chisholm — I actually forgot about Manny Machado here for some reason, and I probably would have drafted him and hoped for Chisholm on the way back. But had Chisholm been taken I’d have regretted it, so maybe it’s better I did forget. I needed the steals with Alvarez and two pitchers, and Chisholm has massive upside if he can ever stay healthy. A seriously fragile team thus far, but at least they’re all healthy now.

6.3 Raisel Iglesias — I didn’t want to take a closer this early, but there was no one I liked that much. Josh Lowe, who I picked in BCL1, was my top hitter, and I wasn’t keen on getting my fourth OF right away, so I took an established veteran closer on arguably baseball’s best team.

7.10 Paul Sewald — I got snaked on Jesus Luzardo by one pick (who I had to talk myself into to begin with) and doubled up on closers because there was no one I wanted in these rounds per ADP, and I knew my Round 8 pick would be there.

8.3 Jackson Chourio — I have him as this year’s 2022 Julio Rodriguez, played chicken and missed him by two picks in my first draft, so I jumped him 30 spots here. He’ll play from the outset and go 20-20 at a minimum if he stays healthy.

9.10 Chris Sale — I was set to take Spencer Torkelson, but got snaked by two picks, so I pivoted to Sale whose upside I like. It might have been a mistake though as two players I was targeting, Wyatt Langford and Jordan Walker, went on the turn. I have Walker in BCL1, which is why I risked it with Sale, and I didn’t think Langford would go that early.

10.3 Nolan Arenado — This made me feel better about missing Machado — a similar player four rounds later and my first non-pitcher or OF in 10 picks.

11.10 Yandy Diaz — I got batting average from Alvarez, and I liked adding a little more with Diaz. You can find other categories on waivers, but average is tough.

12.3 Josh Naylor — Another decent average corner, and one who runs a little. I have Tatis, Chisholm and Chourio, but Alvarez, Diaz and Arenado don’t run at all, and you need a lot of steals these days.

13.10 Justin Verlander — I think he’s still a top-20 pitcher if healthy, though that’s a big if right now.

14.3 Marcell Ozuna — I had almost forgotten about him at DH, but I was pretty sure Team 11, who drafted Ohtani, wasn’t in the market for a bench DH in Round 14, so I knew I’d get him when I decided to take him ahead of my pick.

15.10 Jackson Holliday — I love waiting on middle infield because there are so many upside options and even solid, steady ones in the second half of the draft. Holliday is an upside play, and he runs too, but there’s a chance he starts the year at Triple-A.

16.3 Kenley Jansen — I love old warhorse closers, and he simply fell too far. I already had two closers, but having a third is a nice option when your low-end starters have bad match-ups and insurance against one of them getting hurt or losing the job.

17.10 Jarred Kelenic — I got him in both drafts, as I think there’s a great chance of a breakout for the former top prospect as a 23-year old on the Braves.

18.3 Ezequiel Tovar — His defense will keep him in the lineup every day, and he went 15-11 with 73 RBI and 79 runs last year as a 21-year old. He also hit .276 with 47 runs at home last year, so he’s a good player to move in and out of the lineup based on whether he’s in Coors.

19.10 Junior Caminero — This might have been a mistake as I didn’t realize he’ll spend at least a couple weeks in the minors, and he doesn’t quality at MI yet either (which I did know.) I should probably have taken the top pitcher on my board, Triston McKenzie, instead, who incidentally went with the very next pick. There’s upside, here, but if Verlander is on the DL and/or Holliday starts in the minors, I might be forced to drop him before he gets called up.

20.3 Giancarlo Stanton — I took Stanton in the first draft too. He just needs to stay healthy, and maybe the weight loss will help in that regard. Hitting behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto would be ideal if the Yankees put him at cleanup or fifth. Even four healthy months would be worth it.

21.10 Kenta Maeda — I took Maeda in the first draft too. Just a solid, veteran pitcher in the right division.

22.3 Luis Severino — He was abominable last year, and it’s been an awfully long time since he was good. But he’s completely healthy now and still had his full velocity last year. (This is a really injury-prone team with Severino and Stanton too.)

23.10 Gavin Lux — I needed a second baseman, and I like that he’s also outfield eligible if needed. Lux was once a top prospect and hit for power in the minors, but hurt his knee last year. He’ll also qualify at SS soon too.

24.3 Andrew Heaney — I needed another pitcher, and Heaney is one. I actually had him on my Main Event team last year, and he was a borderline ace a for a stretch before falling apart. There are skills here, he’s on a good team and gets the A’s and Angels in his division.

25.10 Reese Olson — A young pitcher with a good K-rate in the minors that had success last year with the Tigers.

26.3 Trevor Bauer — I got mocked for this pick in the chat, and perhaps rightly so. The nutless nerds that hold GM positions these days are way too cowardly to sign Bauer even though he is not guilty of a crime and has already more than served his suspension. But at this point, the upside is worth a shot.

27.10 Danny Jansen — I needed a catcher, and Jansen has a bit of pop.

28.3 Brice Turang — Turang can steal bases, was a former first-round pick and hit well at Triple-A as a 22-year old. He was bad last year, but it was his first 404 major-league at-bats.

29.10 Gary Sanchez — My second catcher who should spend time at DH and hit for power in that park. Think getting catchers in Rounds 27 and 29 is the way to go in the 12-teams. If one or both are bad, someone will emerge too.

30.3 Aaron Ashby — My third straight Brewer, Ashby was a former top prospect with a shot to make the rotation out of camp.

Notes and Observations:

I give myself a B+ on this one. Some of it was just how things fell. Team 8 snaked me on Max Fried in Round 5, Spencer Torkelson in Round 9, Teoscar Hernandez in Round 11 and Mitch Garver in Round 15. But I got a little sloppy on filling the MI slots with a delayed Caminero, a home-only Tovar and a long-shot Lux. Even Holliday could start in the minors. The silver lining is I don’t think J.P. Crawford was even drafted, so there are always viable full-time at-bats there to be had for free.

While I loved punting on catchers, I didn’t like the early closer build as there were many times in the draft I liked the closer value but was already full. I just hate the pitchers and hitters for three rounds, so I’m either taking closers there, or jumping players up and taking worse closers later. It makes me want to do an auction instead so I can avoid that tier altogether.

My biggest concerns are starting pitching innings (Glasnow, Verlander, Sale, Severino and Heaney are all injury risks), overall injury risk (Tatis, Alvarez, Chisholm are my three top hitters) and enough getting at-bats and steals from my MI. In a 15-team I’d have had to get more mid-tier pitching, but you can fill in more easily in the 12-teamers.

Roster By Position:

C Danny Jansen/Gary Sanchez

1B Josh Naylor

2B Gavin Lux

3B Nolan Arenado

SS Jackson Holliday

CI Yandy Diaz

MI Ezequiel Tovar

OF Fernando Tatis/Yordan Alvarez/Jazz Chisholm/Jackson Chourio/Jarred Kelenic

UT Marcell Ozuna

SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Tyler Glasnow/Chris Sale/Justin Verlander/Kenta Maeda/Luis Severino

RP Raisel Iglesias/Paul Sewald/Kenley Jansen

B Junior Caminero/Giancarlo Stanton/Andrew Heaney/Reese Olson/Trevor Bauer/Brice Turang/Aaron Ashby