Championship Game Observations

I watched the Ravens-Chiefs in real time. There were so many commercials I felt like I was watching a reel of them, only occasionally interspersed with football. I needed the Chiefs to win for the NFFC postseason contest, so that was good, but I also wanted it to be high scoring and for Travis Kelce, who I faded, to do little. I’m probably drawing dead even with 4x Patrick Mahomes, 4x Christian McCaffrey, 3x Deebo Samuel and 3x Rashee Rice, but we’ll see. Maybe if Rice goes bananas and Kelce has a modest game I’ll get into cashing position, but think I’m too far out.

I didn’t bet on these games. I didn’t have a strong feel, and if pressed I might have lost with both favorites. That’s the thing about sports predictions — you really shouldn’t make them unless you have conviction, and just because there’s a game being played doesn’t mean you can manufacture one. That’s one relief about doing my own thing. I can just pass and not be forced to come up with something. Being patient and going big when you feel it is best unless you’re a data-crunching hustler looking to grind out profit on many small but cumulative edges. Sounds boring af to me, but some people are successful at it.

• Patrick Mahomes is the best decision maker under fire I’ve ever seen. Better than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady even, because he has an option they don’t have which isn’t just running for first downs, but also scrambling to find better angles and options for throws. Just a slippery bastard for the defense to try and corral.

• The Chiefs and Steve Spagnuolo solved Lamar Jackson for the most part. Just blitzed the hell out of him and didn’t let him have time for those nice rainbow downfield throws. Of course the Zay Flowers fumble into the end zone was massive, and the soul-crushing pick Jackson threw on the next drive. He’s a two-time MVP, but more Randall Cunningham (three-time MVP runner-up) than he is all-time great.

• That Jackson throw and catch after the ball was tipped at the line was crazy. It almost, for a split second, looked as though he’d break free and take it to the house. Had he done that, it would have been 12 points for the throwing and catching TDs, another four points for the passing yards, eight points for the receiving yards and one more point for the catch. It would have been a 25-point play, the largest in fantasy football history by far.

• I don’t talk about Kelce and his girlfriend much because I think it’s probably staged. Kelce (who was not a household name among non-NFL fans) apparently got $20M from Pfizer, and that’s only worth it now that his appeal has gotten exponentially wider. I can imagine reps from Pfizer, the NFL, Swift and Kelce getting together and plotting this reality show for their collective benefit. Does that mean they’re not actually dating? Maybe they are, but it’s more like an arranged marriage than anything organic in my opinion. Plus, from the Village People mustache, I’m assuming Kelce’s probably gay.

• I live-tweeted the game from my new new sports-only account here if you’re interested in more play by play details. It was largely disappointing with a sloppy second half and not much drama.

• I watched the 49ers-Lions on the 40-minute edited version — condolences to frequent commenter Tony, a die-hard Lions fan that saw them blow a 24-7 lead in the second half, though I warned him he shouldn’t have gratuitously crapped on Danny Dimes after a decisive Lions win.

• Two huge coaching blunders have been talked about at length — not kicking the game-tying FG on 4th-and-3, then running the ball at the end, forcing the Lions to use a crucial timeout. Those things are fine if they succeed, but devastating once they failed. They should have just hurried up on the fourth down from the goal line and not used the timeout, even if they had to run it again or call a suboptimal play.

• Jameson Williams really looked like a player for the first time, and on the biggest stage. The nucleus of Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Williams is A-plus.

• Brock Purdy showed surprising mobility, both in avoiding sacks and scrambling for positive yards. The Lions dominated both lines of scrimmage for much of the game.

• The Niners got awfully lucky on that Aiyuk catch that bounced off the defender’s helmet. Great concentration by Aiyuk, but that was a massive game-changing play when the Niners were having trouble sustaining drives.

• Deebo Samuel looked more or less like himself. Christian McCaffrey ran like Derrick Henry, even though he’s missing 40 pounds.

• If the Lions had held on, we’d have had perfect symmetry between the season’s first and final games. But instead we have a rematch from four years ago. Purdy is better than Jimmy Garoppolo, the Niners now have McCaffrey, the Chiefs no longer have Tyreek Hill, but it’s still Mahomes, and the Chiefs return with a much better defense.

• It looks like the 49ers are one-point favorites, and that sounds about right. These are as close to evenly matched teams as I can remember. My gut says Chiefs — I think they actually have the better defense of the two right now, but I’ll think about it more before actually placing any bets.