I went 3-1-1 last week, just going by feel. The quality of the teams is largely priced in by the number, but getting a sense of how those teams will play on a given Sunday is the key. I have no interest in getting half-point line “edges” based on “sharp” movement or “closing line value”. I just want to sense which teams will show up and which won’t more often than not. Can this be done? Maybe.
My Picks
Colts +6.5 at Vikings
The Colts are a low-key doormat, down there with the dregs of the league, while the Vikings have a good defense and are 5-0. The Colts are on the road and not even getting a full TD, either. So why am I taking them? Because the line isn’t even seven, the Colts just lost to the winless Titans, and I’m betting the Vikings, coming off a bye (which is usually good) will not take them as seriously as the Colts take the Vikings.
Ravens -1.5 vs Bengals
I don’t know whether Lamar Jackson is playing, but it seems like he might based on the line, and in any event, I like buying the Ravens low off the loss to the Browns.
Lions -3 vs Packers
The Packers looked great the last couple weeks, and the Lions defense isn’t good. But this line is slightly too big — why not 1.5 or 2.5, why three? Because there is something off.
Rams -4 at Raiders
The Rams just lost at home to the Cardinals and now might be without Davante Adams AND Puka Nacua. But the Rams will run the ball, and Matthew Stafford will throw it to five tight ends. I’m buying low on the team itself even if the line isn’t low at all.
Cowboys -3.5 at Eagles
Monday night road favorite with no defense who got worked by the Packers last week and the Bucs the week before. Perfect. Lay the wood.
Love the Lions -3 because every pundit can’t stop talking about their terrible defense. If something is so bad, then it makes sense it’ll balance out because it’s the NFL.