Another 2-3 week, and I’m thinking I should check out the booby prize standings pretty soon, see if I should be pivoting here. But that would actually make no sense because if my earnest picks got me this far, why would I switch them to purposely lose? If anything, I should switch them to pretend to chase the booby prize and wind up winning Q3.
Seriously though, it’s just been monkey picks most of the way, insufficient conviction, not getting the feel for the flow of the league. That’s why it’s always worth giving it your best, even in the middle of Q2 where I’m drawing dead — see if I can catch a wave.
Here are this week’s picks:
Jets +6.5 at Bengals
You never bet the Jets. Doesn’t matter if the spot is good, doesn’t matter if this is a winnable game for a desperate team. Doesn’t matter if you have a terminal illness, and you won’t live to see the game. Never bet the Jets. Unless you’re a real man. Then you bet them because no one else will.
Ravens -6.5 vs Bears
I guess they’re assuming Lamar Jackson is playing. So are Ronnie Stanley and Roquan Smith, it seems. The Bears are nothing special. If the Ravens coming off a bye are even reasonably healthy, they should roll at home.
Falcons -7.5 vs Dolphins
The Dolphins would surely be the contrarian play, but I like Atlanta off a bad loss at home in a get well game against a team that is hanging on by a thread.
Bills -7 at Panthers
I think the Bills are overrated, but the Panthers are the kind of team they can handle. I also like that they’re coming off a loss after the bye, and the Panthers coming off an easy win over the Jets.
Saints +3.5 vs Buccaneers
This was my fifth choice. The Bucs are missing too many key players, coming off a short week and going on the road against a bad, but scrappy division rival.