Circa Millions

I blew it

After my 5-0 start to Q3, I went 2-3 last week, effectively blowing my chances at a cash in the quarter. The Chargers pick was especially egregious, and it even felt wrong as I wrote it up. Never pick the better QB or the better team just for that reason — that’s the most completely priced-in information in the entire market.

This week I made my picks quickly without my deep thought. “See the pick, make the pick” as frequent commenter Ray See posted after my “See The Ball, Hit The Ball” podcast.

Jets +13.5 at Ravens

The Jets are terrible, but Tyrod Taylor is competent in a Jacoby Brissett/Davis Mills kind of way, and the Ravens have yet to show they’re the team we expected before the year. Lamar Jackson doesn’t look 100 percent, Derrick Henry looks old and the defense is just average. The Ravens should win, but the Jets should hang around.

Giants +10 at Lions

This is a similar story. The Giants showed a ton of heart last week against the Packers even with Jaxson Dart out, and the Lions are a bit like the Ravens in that they’re not quite the same team as last year. Now the Lions are still capable of blowing out doormats, so it wouldn’t shock me, but my base case is with Dart (likely) back, this is a game. (Dart not being re-instated broke right as I was posting this, so ignore this one. Unfortunately, I can’t change it.)

Chiefs -3.5 vs Colts

The Chiefs are still good, the loss to the Broncos notwithstanding, and the Colts seem to be a bit of smoke and mirrors. Danny Dimes has regressed his last two games with turnovers and sacks, and Steve Spagnuolo and the defense are likely to test him. The Colts defense is just average, and I expect Patrick Mahomes to have a huge game.

Cardinals +3 vs Jaguars

This might be my best bet — selling high on the Jags after the Chargers no-show, taking the Cardinals who got crushed by two good teams the last two weeks. Brissett is better than Trevor Lawrence, and that’s probably not priced in.

49ers -7 vs Panthers

I got beat by the Panthers last week, but that’s just because I was dumb enough to take the Falcons again. Against everyone else the Panthers are a borderline doormat, despite their record. Lay the wood.