Circa Millions

Week 16

I went 3-2 last week, to go 6-4 for Q4, pretty much drawing dead. I mean if I went 10-0 over the next two weeks, 1 in 1024 if you were picking at random, I *might* get a piece of the prize, but even then it’s possible I would not. Still, I feel good about my read on the league of late — 19-10-1 over my last six weeks, and I’d like to finish strong.

Here are this week’s picks:

Commanders +6.5 vs Eagles

Division rivalry, sell high on the Eagles after a win against the feckless Raiders. The Redskins are a league average team, and the Eagles are not that far above it, yet laying almost a TD on the road.

Patriots +3 at Ravens

The loss of OT Will Campbell has probably hurt Drake Maye and the offense of late, but the Patriots are a nice buy-low here, and the Ravens are a clear sell high off their shutout win in Cincinnati.

Cowboys -2.5 vs Chargers

The Chargers have struggled this year with early body clock road games, they can’t pass protect to save their lives, and they’re coming off a key win against their long time nemesis, the Chiefs. The Cowboys are eliminated from the playoffs, but that might be a good thing for this team of stat-padders and makes them a good buy-low.

Lions -7 vs Steelers

The Lions showed up against the Rams last week even if they fell short. The Steelers are flying high after a couple good wins, but drawing the Dolphins in the freezing cold was a gift, and the Ravens are weak too. Time to sell high now that they’re facing a good team on the road.

49ers -5.5 at Colts

This is my fifth choice out of five, but I watched Philip Rivers, and I have to think the Niners defense will concede anything deep and pack the short areas of the field. It’s like when you’re playing softball, the little guy comes up, and the outfielders move almost to the edge of the infield dirt.