Circa Millions

Q4

I went 3-2 last week to finish Q3 at 13-6-1. That’s a solid showing, a pace good enough to win the whole thing, but unfortunately about three games short of winning the quarter. It’s kind of like when I killed myself to run a 1:14 quarter mile. Good enough pace to break a five-minute mile, but a lot easier to do it for a quarter than the whole thing.

The good thing about a strong Q3 is it makes me feel like I have a better handle on the flow of the league heading into Q4. That doesn’t mean I’ll do well, but it’s better to have conviction than to be throwing darts.

Browns -4.5 vs Titans

The Browns defense is legitimately good, and the Titans offense can’t pass protect to save its life. I could see this being a low-scoring slog where the Titans cover, but if Shadeur Sanders can muster any offense, I think the Browns cover.

Steelers +5.5 at Ravens

The Steelers looked terrible last week, but I held my nose because the Ravens are not remotely themselves, starting with Lamar Jackson. Usually these rivalry games are close, and they are playing for the division lead, so I’ll take the points.

Colts -1.5 at Jaguars

I don’t love that Danny Dimes is playing on a Theismann, but he survived against the Texans elite defense, and the Jaguars are solid but a step down. This feels like a buy-low to me, even though I don’t really believe in the Colts.

Packers -6.5 vs Bears

I’ve faded the Bears every week, and it probably cost me $60K in Q3. I’m starting to buy into Ben Johnson’s impact on the offense, and the defense and offensive line has played well too. I just think the Packers are a real Super Bowl contender and at home they’ll flex their muscles.

Bengals +5.5 at Bills

This was my last of the five picks, but Joe Burrow makes the Bengals a top-five offense again, and the defense hasn’t been quite as bad as it was early in the year. The Bills can hurt you though, and that’s why I was hesitant, but I expect this game to be close.