Circa Millions
Week 13
I went 3-1-1 last week, not that it mattered, but it was nice to have a good week and feel like I’m in touch with the flow of the league. The one game I lost was the Chiefs -3.5, and they had the ball at the goal line to win by four before settling for the field goal, winning in OT and losing the cover by half a point.
I made my picks early this week to take some of the Thanksgiving Day games. I almost took the Chiefs again -3.5 against the Cowboys, but swapped it out at the last minute — I’m too invested in the Chiefs for fantasy, and maybe I’m letting it cloud my judgment. Their defense is good, but the offense isn’t quite right.
In any event, here are the picks:
Packers +2.5 at Lions
I like the Lions and am invested in them fantasy-wise, but they are a bit like (but not as bad as) the Ravens this year in that it’s not exactly the same juggernaut offense from 2024. The Packers defense is better, and I think they’re the tougher team overall.
Bengals +7 at Ravens
The Ravens aren’t themselves. Lamar isn’t running, Derrick Henry looks old, and the receivers are average. The defense is nothing special, either. Joe Burrow should be back, and the Bengals have shown some heart of late even though their defense could get destroyed.
Eagles -7 vs Bears
I’ve been fading the Bears who I think are a fraud, and I’ve been losing. But they’ve been playing weak teams every week, and now they face a tough one on the road, coming off a crushing loss. Seven is a big line, but not big enough.
Texans +4.5 at Colts
The Texans defense looked like the best in the NFL against the Bills last Thursday, and the Colts seem like a decent team, not a great one. I expect a close game that either team can win. Four and a half seems like too much.
Giants +7.5 at Patriots
Jaxson Dart is back, but actually Jameis Winston played great too behind an improved offensive line. This is a team with a lot of heart even if they can’t tackle running backs to save their lives. TreVeyon Henderson might go bananas, but I’d expect the Giants to hang around, especially with Will Campbell out against those nasty edge rushers.