I went 3-1-1 for the second week in a row. Odd how many ties I already have (four), but lately I’ve been reading the flow of the league pretty well. The task is to imagine yourself as the mark, realize you are being led into a trap and fade that trap. That doesn’t mean take the Chargers and Titans every week (though I DID take the Chargers this week!), but it means to find the overlooked, the side that doesn’t quite add up to its number. For whatever number seems most wrong or off has enough energy on the other side of it to keep it from moving to where the mark thinks it should be. The NFL isn’t what happened last week or last month, but the adjustments made to what happened last week and last month.
Here’s my record so far:
And here are this week’s picks:
Chargers +6.5 at Rams
This line is obviously too low. The Rams are desperate to get back into the race, and the Chargers are drawing dead. The Chargers have no offensive line, their quarterback has played poorly, their receivers are either injured or ineffective, and the three-headed monster at RB is bad. So why isn’t the number set at seven or eight or 10? Because enough money is on the Chargers to keep it closer than that, and I’m taking the desperate animal run by a successful coach.
Redskins -6 vs Eagles
This line is too big. Who are the Redskins to lay six against anyone? The Eagles have a good defense, and they are desperate animals too in a division rivalry game. I would have expected maybe four or 4.5, but it’s six because the Redskins roll.
Ravens +3 at Bills
The Bills are a juggernaut, coming off a bye, while the Ravens are getting a likely less-than-100-percent-Lamar Jackson back and going on the road. But the Bills defense is bad, the Ravens are in last place in the AFC North, and I would have thought this line should be bigger.
Buccaners -2.5 vs Falcons
No one is really buying the Bucs despite their blowout win over the Panthers. The Falcons have all the shiny skill players, they’re coming off a win over the undefeated Niners yet are still getting the full 2.5 on the road. Something’s off.
Cowboys -7 vs Cardinals
The Cardinals are bad, but this line strikes me as too big for the Cowboys who don’t play defense and haven’t protected Dak Prescott that well of late. I like playing favorites who seem suspect, for it is not the team that is suspect but your own perception of it (at least for that matchup, as the Cowboys really do suck.)