Circa Millions

Week 15

I went 3-2 last week to open Q4, still drawing live, but you really need to average at least 4-1 to cash. For that reason I took a team I think a lot of people will fade, maybe even some of those who are eventually in the running.

Here are the picks:

Browns +7.5 at Bears

I was on the Bears initially — I’m finally convinced they’re decent even though the Packers (barely) covered against them last week. But I asked Grok which teams it liked, and after it churned out garbage based on hacks and touts, I prompted it to think for itself based on game data, and one of the ones it liked was the Browns (others: Jets, Raiders, Ravens, Titans.) I started to come around after thinking about it more. In cold weather, it might be more of a smash mouth game, which lowers the scoring. And from what I’ve seen so far, Shadeur Sanders might actually be good and should be expected to get better each week with experience.

Ravens -2.5 at Bengals

Another one Grok liked, but I was already considering them. I’ve been fading the Ravens all year, and unlike with the Bears, it’s paid off. The Bengals are actually decent with Joe Burrow, so this line is way off, especially after the Bengals blew them out in Baltimore just two weeks ago. But that’s what swung it for me — the obvious pick is Cincy. It’s so beyond obvious it has to be wrong.

Rams -6 vs Lions

The Lions played well against the Cowboys last week, but I still don’t think they’re close to being the team from last year. I’ll sell them high off that win on the road against a legitimately strong opponent.

Titans +12.5 at 49ers

The 49ers could smash them, but Tennessee has played better of late, and Cam Ward, like Sanders, should be expected to improve on the job. The Titans also ran the ball well against a very tough run defense in Cleveland last week, something that would keep them in this game. But this is probably my fourth choice of the five.

Steelers -3.5 vs Dolphins

This is the game I threw in at the end in part *because* of the line movement down to three. Sharps might jump on the “closing line value” around the key number, but this is a night game in frigid temperatures, and I don’t expect Tua Tagovailoa to fare well. I also had a dream the Steelers covered, FWIW.