I went 2-3 last week after a 4-1 Week 4, and that screwed up my feel a little bit. You need to build a few good weeks in a row, get the sense that you’re reading the league well. It’s like hitting a few layups in a basketball game, getting your confidence and then you can start draining from anywhere.
Here are my picks for Week 6:
49ers +3 at Buccaneers
The Niners are just so ugly, why would anyone want them getting only three on the road in Tampa? And what a long cross-country flight! Like the Seahawks line from last week, this seems off, and I’m gonna lean into it even if the Seahawks didn’t pay off for me. This was probably my least favorite of the five, but the Bucs also have a lot of injuries on offense too.
Patriots -3.5 at Saints
The Saints beat the Giants, but I watched that game, and they didn’t outplay them. It was mostly turnovers. The Patriots are a sell-high after the win in Buffalo, but I won’t sell them with a young, emerging star QB, and Stefon Diggs finally healthy again. This isn’t enough points.
Packers -14.5 vs Bengals
Joe Flacco can’t fix a bad offensive line and a below average defense. He himself was terrible on the Browns! The Packers are coming off a bye, having to think about a freak loss to the Browns on a blocked kick and a tie against the Cowboys. I think this is a get-well game for them.
Falcons +4.5 vs Bills
Josh Allen is a deserving MVP, but the rest of the team isn’t that good. The Ravens had them crushed before imploding in the fourth quarter, the Saints and Dolphins went toe to toe for most of their games and the Patriots just went into Buffalo and won outright. They’ve also played four of the first five games at home, and crushing the 0-5 Jets isn’t a big deal. This is a lot of wood to lay against Penix et al on the road.
Redskins -4.5 vs Bears
The Jayden Daniels Redskins are good, and the Bears I don’t know. Their two wins were over the Cowboys and (barely) over the Raiders. They lost a close game to the JJ McCarthy Vikings and got destroyed by the Lions. My thinking is this should be more like six or seven, not 4.5 given the venue and the disparity between the teams.