Circa Millions Picks
I went 2-3 last week to bring my two-week mark to 3-7. I’m not drawing dead yet, but obviously you don’t get many of those stretches if you expect to cash in this contest.
This week I feel more strongly about a couple games:
I love the Bengals laying the 7.5 at home against the Football team. The Giants should have beaten them in Washington last week (but for not having a kicker and Malik Nabers dropping an easy 4th-down conversion at the end.) The Bengals will get Ja’Marr Chase going and blow them out.
I like the desperate Ravens in Dallas laying only one point. It’s usually not a great idea to think, “I can’t imagine them at 0-3” so I have to bet them when they’re 0-2 because you probably didn’t foresee them at 0-2, either, and once they’re 0-2, they only need to lose one road game to get to 0-3. That said, I think they’ll be focused, and the Cowboys would have to bring their A game to beat them.
Give me the Falcons getting the 3.5 at home against the Chiefs. Atlanta should hang with them.
I like the Texans laying less than a FG in Minnesota. The Vikings have played well, but I’ll sell high off the big win over the 49ers.
I was on the Bucs initially, but something feels off about it. It’s too obvious, the Broncos aren’t getting nearly enough points with Bo Nix. I’ll stay away.
My last choice is between the Colts as a buy-low at home and the way overpriced Lions on the road.
The Colts are ugly, can’t stop the run, missing DeForest Buckner, etc. But really the names on the jerseys, the details of that sort are already priced in, not the way to handicap games. The better way is to get a sense of the league’s ebb and flow. I think the Colts win at home, maybe Anthony Richardson plays better this week.
The Lions should be 2.5-point underdogs, so this line caught my attention — something is off, and it gives me a feeling I’m missing something, makes me want to take them. But that’s probably overthinking it. I’ll take the Colts with the last pick.
My Picks
