Divisional Round: Guessing The Lines

I didn’t make any bets last week, so I have no record to report. I would have been on the Giants and Jaguars for sure, but maybe also the Seahawks — I thought they’d keep it closer. I should have bet the Cowboys, but I only realized that in retrospect.

Here are my numbers for this week:

I’m not that far off on any of them, but my biggest discrepancy is Jaguars-Chiefs — not only is it two points from my line, but it crosses the key number seven (and eight is relevant too.) I think the Jaguars can hang with them, as long as they don’t come out as sluggish as last week. Ordinarily I don’t love backing teams coming off dramatic wins though, and Andy Reid has a great track record with two weeks to prepare, so on second thought, maybe I’ll stay away from that.

Don’t ask me to be objective about the Giants here. Their offense looked great last week, but that was a dome against a terrible defense. Now they’re in the elements against a good one, and the Eagles have so many weapons on offense, and a quarterback who can scramble. It will be a tall order to win it, but Brian Daboll should have them up for the game.

I liked the Bengals a little bit, but they might be down two offensive linemen including left tackle Jonah Williams. That’s not ideal in Buffalo. I trust Joe Burrow, but he needs to have time to attack down the field.

Finally, I like the 49ers a little bit. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys looked great against a weak Bucs team, but this will be a much taller order, and I don’t think Mike McCarthy will be up to it.

Bottom line, I don’t love any of these games from a betting standpoint. I’ll just be rooting for the Giants, Bengals, 49ers and Jaguars, but mostly the Giants.