Grading My Bold MLB Predictions
Brace yourself
I just realized this morning I never circled back to the predictions I made before the MLB season. That’s bad form — you can’t make predictions and not be accountable for them!
Here are last year’s. Let’s take a look at this year’s:
Fernando Tatis is this year’s Ronald Acuna
He’s two years removed from his injury/suspension, got the warm-up season out of the way last year the way Acuna did in 2022 and is completely healthy and playing a less demanding defensive position (RF) this year. Remember, Tatis was going No. 1 overall not two years ago, and he’s still only 25.
Verdict: False. He got hurt, and while he was okay when healthy, he wasn’t close to 2023 Acuna. (0-1)
Juan Soto is this year’s Aaron Judge (2022)
Soto is 25, hits lefty in Yankee Stadium in front of Judge and is playing on a one-year deal for a mega contract. I could see a 50-120-140-.320-18-type year, kind of like what Judge had.
Verdict: False. Aaron Judge was this year’s Judge. Soto had a very solid year, but it was more or less what he was projected for over a full season. (0-2)
Jackson Chourio is this year’s Corbin Carroll
Chourio went 22-42 in 122 games as a 19-year old at Double-A last year, and he’s been signed to a multi-year deal on the rebuilding Brewers, so unless he falls on his face, he’ll play every day, half the time in a good hitter’s park.
Verdict: True. This could go either way, as Chourio’s stats were not nearly as valuable as Carroll’s from 2023, but his second half was just as good, he went 20-20 and should go somewhere in the first (or early second) round next year. (1-2)
Yu Darvish (ADP 142) will have a better year than Cole Ragans (ADP 71).
I don’t get the hype with Ragans. He was good for a few months, but still walked too many. Darvish is the ideal veteran coming off a bad year, pitching in a good situation in whom I like to invest.
Verdict: False. Ragans lived up to the hype with 223 Ks, while Darvish pitched well enough, but missed more than half the season. (1-3)
Walker Buehler (ADP 205) will have a better year than Tarik Skubal (ADP 33).
Skubal’s career high is 149 IP, which is about what I expect from Buehler once he gets going after a delayed start. Skubal was great in limited action last year, but Buehler had a 207 IP season in 2021 and has been a top starter for four years before having Tommy John surgery in 2022. I also don’t like that Skubal was touching 100 mph in February — unnecessary and dangerous.
Verdict: ROTFLMFAO. No need for explanation. (1-4)
Jarred Kelenic, at a minimum, will go 20-10-.260 this year for the Braves.
He was a top prospect, is still only 24, went 11-13-.253 (.746 OPS) last year in 372 at-bats in a bad hitter’s park for a franchise that mistreated him. Now he gets to hit ahead of Ronald Acuna in a loaded lineup in a better park with a fresh start. And I’m not worried about the platoon with Adam Duvall — if Kelenic makes good on his prospect pedigree, he’ll get his at-bats.
Verdict: False. He went 15-7-.231, and his .679 OPS cost him too many at-bats to go 20-10. (1-5)
Spencer Torkelson (ADP 143) will outearn Vlad Guerrero (ADP 34)
Last year, I picked Matt Olson to beat Guerrero, and that was a landslide, and I’ll go back to the well here. In the second half, Torkelson went .238/.318/.498 with 19 HR, 49 RBI, 45 runs in 273 at-bats. Guerrero went 13-36-36-.251/.346/.444 in 259 at-bats. If you set aside Guerrero’s insane year playing in little league parks, he’s a 30-ish HR hitter when he logs 158-ish games. Guerrero will get him on batting average, steals should be negligible, but Torkelson has more pop, and he’s still getting better.
Verdict: LMAO. Guerrero crushed it this year, while Torkelson spent half the year in the minors. (1-6)
Teoscar Hernandez will be this year’s Marcel Ozuna
Last year, Ozuna went 40-100-.274, and I expect similar from Hernandez with all those stars hitting ahead of him in the LA lineup. Hernandez also struggled a ton at home last year where he had trouble seeing the ball, but was good on the road, and now he’s out of Seattle for good.
Verdict: True. While Ozuna was this year’s Ozuna, Hernandez’s 33-99-.272-12 was close enough. (2-6)
The Shohei Ohtani gambling incident will be memory-holed by baseball and the Dodgers henceforth.
This one is hard to quantify, but I suspect Ohtani’s half-assed, question-free press-conference is the last you will ever hear Ohtani, the Dodgers or baseball comment on it, beyond saying, “we’re investigating,” “we’ve investigated” or “we consider it resolved.” This is the last thing they want to deal with, and given how many massive real-world events get memory-holed every week, this is small potatoes.
Verdict: 100% True. One could argue this wasn’t very bold, but at the time, people were worried he’d get suspended or other info would drop. (3-6)
Some of these predictions will turn out to be wrong
As I always say, it keeps me from going 10 for 10, but also 0-for-10.
Verdict: True! (4-6)