Grading My Bold Predictions

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I was putting off writing this article because I knew the result would be bad. Real man probably doesn’t write it at all, just skips town and never posts again. But being the nutless monkey I am, I will hold my nose and revisit the bold predictions from last August. And remember, the worst your record, the bolder they were. They were really bad last year too, I just discovered.

1. Stefon Diggs leads the Texans in targets, catches and receiving yards

Right now, he’s getting drafted more than a round behind Nico Collins and less than a round ahead of Tank Dell. Diggs is 30, but he was one of the league’s best receivers until halfway through last year when the Bills made an offensive play-calling change. Moreover, Diggs is getting paid $22.5 million, so the Texans obviously don’t think he’s washed up, and he’s also in a contract year.

Verdict: False. Had he stayed healthy he would have, but that was only because Nico Collins had gotten hurt first. (0-1)

2. CJ Stroud leads the NFL in passing yards

This is +600 on DraftKings, so the real odds are probably north of 8:1. Stroud adds Diggs to his receiving corps, doesn’t run much and heads into Year 2.

Verdict: False. It looked good with Diggs, Collins and Tank Dell, but the first two got hurt, Dell was a bust, and the offensive line was horrible. Plus Stroud himself regressed. (0-2)

3. Roman Wilson (ADP 211) has more receptions than George Pickens (ADP 47)

Pickens is a boom or bust downfield playmaker, not high-target alpha, and Wilson is a good fit for the slot for the Steelers new QBs. Think Martavis Bryant not Antonio Brown. (Not that Wilson is Brown!) Van Jefferson isn’t good, and someone will need to fill the void. Moreover, because Pittsburgh has new QBs, neither has an existing rapport with the incumbent Pickens.

Verdict: LOL. I was right about Pickens and the Steelers WRs, but Wilson never even played. (0-3)

4. DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 82) out produces Calvin Ridley (ADP 54) in PPR

Hopkins wasn’t terrible last year, has a rapport with Will Levis and is a future Hall of Famer who can still run routes. Ridley is already 29 and is just a guy outside of his monster season in 2020.

Verdict: False. Ridley smoked him, and Hopkins was eventually traded. (0-4)

5. The Giants will field a top-10 fantasy defense.

I’ve been crushed by my homer bold predictions in the past, but they added Brian Burns to a rush that already had Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux, the offense should be on the field more and generate some leads with a real playmaking receiver in Malik Nabers.

Verdict: False. They started out strong, but it’s very hard to be a good fantasy defense on a three-win team, and they finished 24th. (0-5).

6. One of the following Year 2 receivers will finish in the top-15 PPR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jayden Reed, Jordan Addison, Dontayvion Wicks, Michael Wilson, Josh Downs, Andrei Iosivas, Quentin Johnston, Marvin Mims, Jalin Hyatt

I make this prediction every year, and it often pans out as Year 2 is when receivers typically make the leap. I left out Tank Dell because he’s now got a fifth-round ADP, as well as the obvious ones: Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice and Puka Nacua.

Verdict: True. Jaxon Smith-Njigba finished 11th. (1-5)

7. Rome Odunze (ADP 77) will outproduce Xavier Worthy (ADP 59)

Both receivers enter crowded situations, and while Worthy’s is far better, he’s also got essentially the same skill-set as teammate Marquise Brown. Moreover, Andy Reid rarely entrusts rookies with large roles, especially early on. Odunze is 6-3, 215 and has the pedigree of a true NFL alpha, while Worthy weighs only 165 pounds at 5-11. Finally, Patrick Mahomes already has an established rapport with both Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, while Odunze gets a more open competition with the Bears veteran WRs, given all three will play with Caleb Williams for the first time.

Verdict: False. It was reasonably close, but Worthy pulled ahead late in the year (1-6)

8. Dalvin Cook will lead the Cowboys in rushing yards

Cook is 29 and looked beyond “cooked” last year on the Jets, but his 3.3 YPC was on a small sample (67 carries), and prior to that, he’d been very good for the Vikings. At the very least he should have fresh legs, and he’d only need to beat out the ancient Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. (Of course, Cook would have to be promoted from the practice squad first, so I really should hedge and make the prediction “neither Elliott, nor Dowdle will lead the Cowboys in rushing yards,” but I’ll push it and say it’s Cook.)

Verdict: LOL. Cook was the one veteran back from the Class of 2017 who really was washed up. (1-7)

9. Jonathan Taylor (ADP12 ) will lead the NFL in rushing yards.

He’s got little competition in the Indy backfield and a running QB who should open lanes for him. Draft Kings has him at +600, so his real odds are probably about 10:1, but I’d take him over the favored Christian McCaffrey (age/mileage) and all the other backs who are more hybrid types or old (Derrick Henry.)

Verdict: False. He finished fourth despite missing three full games, so this wasn’t too far off. What’s funny is I make this prediction of Barkley virtually every year except this one. (1-8)

10. Dalton Kincaid (TE4) will lead all TE in catches

I guess this is a chalky pick because he and Kelce are both favored at the position at +3000, while Evan Engram is +5000! (I’d way rather bet on Engram at those odds.) But straight up, I’m going with Kincaid who is likely Josh Allen’s de facto No. 1 target with Diggs gone. In his final 11 regular season games Kincaid had 56 catches which prorates to 87 catches over the full year. And rookie tight ends rarely do anything and often make a leap in Year 2. (1-9)

Verdict: LOL. Kincaid was one of the biggest busts in the draft. (1-9)

11. Some of these predictions will be wrong

No one’s perfect, but you never want to get shut out.

Verdict: Crushed, especially the comment the prescience of which makes Nostradamus look like the corner astrologer. (2-9)