Grading My Bold Predictions
(Brace yourself, it's not pretty.)
Every year I make my “bold predictions,” and unfortunately every year I have to grade them. The last two years were pretty good, but let’s take a look at how I fared this season:
Daniel Jones (QB11) finishes as a top-seven NFFC fantasy QB
This might not sound bold, but it is. Jones’ overall ADP is 122, while QB7 (Trevor Lawrence) is 52, i.e, that is a big leap value-wise. Jones will get you 500 yards on the ground and a few rushing TDs, but in Year 2 of Brian Daboll’s system and with upgrades in Darren Waller, Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt, I’d expect in the neighborhood of 25 passing TDs and 4,000 yards too.
Verdict: LOL. It does sound bold now at least. Jones was as disaster before he got hurt, and the Giants acquisitions did almost nothing. (0-1)
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB12) finishes as a top-five RB
I actually like that the Patriots brought in washed-up Zeke Elliott rather than a pass-catching back like Kareem Hunt or a three-down option like Dalvin Cook. At worst Zeke will steal some touchdowns, but at best he’ll absorb the low-upside dirty work and keep Stevenson fresh to catch 70 passes. My comp for Stevenson is Le’Veon Bell — a big, slow power back with excellent balance, instincts and receiving skills.
Verdict: LOL. The Patriots were terrible, and Stevenson wasn’t close to top-five even before he got hurt. (0-2)
Chris Godwin (WR 27) outproduces Keenan Allen (WR 16)
Godwin is 27, Allen 31. Godwin is faster and quicker at roughly the same size. Allen rarely makes catches down the field or in the red zone, and he has much more competition for targets. Of course, Allen has Justin Herbert throwing him the ball, while Godwin has Baker Mayfield, but Mayfield need not be great, only adequate for Godwin to finish in the top-10. Remember two years ago when Jared Goff, another former No. 1 overall who produced for awhile, was essentially thought of the way Mayfield is now?
Verdict: ROTFLMFAO. I was right about Mayfield, and both Herbert and Allen got hurt, but Allen still smoked Godwin. (0-3)
4. Darren Waller is a top-2 TE
I won’t put him ahead of nearly 34-YO Travis Kelce just yet, but I will rank him ahead of Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson. Waller should see 150 targets and be Daniel Jones’ primary red-zone guy too. The skills are not in doubt — he just needs to stay healthy all year, but so does everyone.
Verdict: LOL. Waller was barely healthy all year, and the Giants offense couldn’t support him consistently. (0-4)
5. The Falcons will win the NFC South
Right now, the Saints are favored at +121, while the Falcons are +216. I like betting the run-heavy teams in a pass-happy league to outperform projections. Plus, the Falcons are young at QB, RB, WR and TE, and have a very good offensive line. They have upside.
Verdict: False. This might have been might *second best* prediction as the Falcons were tied 17-17 late in the second quarter of the Saints game in Week 17, and the Bucs were up only 6-0 against the Panthers, i.e., it was still alive with 30 minutes to go in the season. Of course, those 30 minutes went about as poorly as possible, but on the scale of wrong to laughably absurd, this one was just wrong. (0-5).
6. One of the following Year 2 receivers will finish in the top-15 PPR: Skyy Moore, Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams, Alec Pierce, Jalen Tolbert, Wan’Dale Robinson, John Metchie, Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir, Rashid Shaheed
I make this prediction every year, and it often pans out as Year 2 is when receivers typically make the leap. I left out Jahan Dotson because he’s now got a fifth-round ADP, as well as the obvious ones: Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Christian Watson and George Pickens. It’s a scrubbier group than usual, though.
Verdict: False. Robinson came on late, and Shaheed made some plays, but the highest receiver on this list was Doubs (WR37). And this prediction would have been wrong even had I allowed myself the entire pool of Year 2 receivers with the top one, Olave (WR16), not even making it. (0-6)
7. Amon-Ra St. Brown will fail to match his six TDs from a year ago
I’ve heard talk ARSB will regress positively to the mean because he led the league in getting tackled inside the five-yard line last year, but I’ll take the opposite side of that and say he got tackled inside the five because he’s not fast enough to get behind the defense. In other words, for him to score, he’s got to break tackles, unlike Tyreek Hill or Ja’Marr Chase who can score from distance. He’s also not quite physical enough to be an dominant end-zone target like Davante Adams. (Going under six sounds bolder than it is though because the player prop is something like 5.5 on sports betting sites. And whenever you take the under, you have injuries on your side.)
Verdict: False. Despite missing a game, St. Brown went 163-119-1,515-10, crushing the over on his season-long TD prop. (At least, in large part thanks to him, I’m an eater in the Steak League.) (0-7)
8. The Giants will win at least one playoff game
They won one last year, so how bold can this be? Well, they’re underdogs even to make the playoffs (+200/-160), and you can cut those odds in half at least for them to win a game. The market is badly mispricing a well-coached team with an improving young defense, a vastly improved receiving corps and an underrated quarterback who was more than adequate with terrible receivers last year. I get their division is tough, but the Eagles played 21 games last year, and I believe in the Super-Bowl loser hangover effect. And the Cowboys are coached by Mike McCarthy.
Verdict: LOL. The wheels came off, and it was never even a serious consideration. (0-8)
9. Jonathan Taylor (RB 24) will finish as a top-10 PPR running back despite missing at least four games
A top-10 finish would be worth even more than that, as it’ll be condensed into 13 games. I don’t think Taylor is hurt, and I suspect he’ll play once it starts costing him money to sit out. He’s made his point, but he doesn’t have much more leverage. If a contending team does pony up a first-rounder or so to acquire him, Taylor will win a lot of leagues for people. He might even do so on the Colts.
Verdict: False. The premise was fine, but Taylor got hurt again and finished as RB32. Despite a couple good games he was not remotely a difference-maker. (0-9)
10. George Kittle will lead all tight ends in TDs scored
Brock Purdy took over in Week 13, and from that point on, Kittle had seven TDs in eight games. Kittle is a Hall of Fame-level tight end, still in his prime for the position at age 29.
Verdict: False. He tied for second with four other TEs, but that makes it sound closer than it was. Sam LaPorta had 10, while Kittle had only six. (0-10)
11. Some of these predictions will be wrong
No one’s perfect, but you never want to get shut out.
Verdict: Crushed, especially the comment the prescience of which makes Nostradamus look like the corner astrologer. (1-10)