"Guessing the Lines"
I went 2-3 in Circa which hurts because I was 1-4 in Week 1. To offset a 3-7 start, you need a couple 8-2s to get back on pace — a tall order. But I don’t want to get ahead of myself.
Last week was better — I barely lost the Texans-Bears, and the Seahawks had their chances against the Pats. The only really bad pick was the Lions, and it was the one I felt least strongly about. The one thing I’m kicking myself about is I originally liked the Bengals and Cardinals but talked myself out of both. “Sean McVay off a loss” in the former and “Andy Reid with 10 days prep” in the latter. My instincts were fine. Have to trust them now that I’m back into it.
I still haven’t looked at the lines, only the schedule. I want to fade the Pats again on Thursday night instinctively — I don’t think their style is sustainable, and I neglected to consider Seattle making such a long distance trip for an early game last week.
I like the Giants this week — they should have won but for the kicker, and Danny Dimes looked at least like an NFL QB. But Myles Garrett might be in his face all day. I don’t know, probably pass on that.
Bears at Colts — maybe buy low on the Colts, but they’re bad, can’t stop the run and lost DeForest Buckner. Pass.
Texans at Vikings. Depends on the line. Maybe sell high on the Vikings, especially if Justin Jefferson is out.
Eagles at Saints. No strong feeling. Saints won’t be fully priced, usually you ride the streak until they are.
Chargers at Steelers. I’d make this a pick ‘em. Pass.
Broncos at Bucs. Bo Nix is overmatched. Line should be at least 10.
Packers at Titans — too ugly, probably take the Titans, but pass.
Panthers at Raiders — Andy Dalton will give them a lift, Raiders cocky off the big win, but I like Antonio Pierce. Pass.
Dolphins at Seahawks — Backup QB, hard to handicap, pass.
Lions at Cardinals. Lions really out of sync, Goff better at home. And yet — might take the Lions, have to look at the line.
Ravens at Cowboys — Two desperate teams, but the Ravens are more desperate. Probably taking them at -2.5 or better. Expect a pick ‘em maybe.
49ers at Rams — No Deebo, no McCaffrey, no problem. Would lay eight-plus, maybe 10 even given how destroyed the Rams are.
Chiefs at Falcons — I like the Falcons though it’s a short week. Chiefs are tough to go against, though, and both teams won on last second plays.
Jaguars at Bills. There’s something wrong with the Jaguars, Bills had 10 days off. Probably take Jacksonville on a hunch with enough points, but pass.
Football Team at Bengals. I think the Bengals get going, probably destroy them.