Guessing The Lines

I’m not going to do the whole grid. At least not this week. I’m just annoyed generally about Week 1. My Circa Millions picks went 1-4, and honestly I deserved it. I was just flat guessing. What I’ll do instead is just look at the schedule, pick a few teams to buy low or sell high *before* looking at the lines. I feel like the midwit industrial complex™ has poisoned my brain so much I hear a voice in my head saying, “it’s not which team you like, just at what value!”

But that’s only true on average. If you sense a team is about to break out or one is in collapse mode, the average means nothing. Teams win 47-10 all the time. It doesn’t matter whether you got 3.5 or 4 in most cases, only that you were correct about which team showed up.

I’m not trying to do “better on average”. I just want to pick the games right according to my observations. The fucking “better on average” ethos, the “plus-EV” scouge from the MWIC is killing me. It’s a mind killer and a soul killer. I was stuck in it for so long I need some serious deprogramming. David Koresh’s adherents have nothing on me.

First team that jumps out at me is the Lions. Bucs looked good, but faced a soft opponent last week.

Second team is the Seahawks. The Brissett no-mistake ball is only possible if you’re ahead, and the Bengals (a) didn’t show up; and (b) got a little unlucky.

I hate to say it but have a Giants feeling — think they pull Dimes at halftime if he doesn’t get it going. Ignore this obviously.

I want to buy low on the Bengals, though I saw a RotoWire video saying a few players are disgruntled about their contracts, and Mike Brown is an imbecile, so who knows. But I’ll probably take them.

I like the Texans to blow out the Bears too.

Keep in mind I haven’t even looked at the spreads, these are still basically just guesses, and I will probably change my mind. Just some early thoughts.