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Guessing the Lines
I already went over what an epically bad ATS week it was, so I won’t re-hash it here. I’ll update the season records Friday when I make my official faux-Super Contests picks. Two silver linings: (1) I won’t leave $1M on the table after not having signed up for the real Super Contest; and (2) They don’t ding you for margin of wrongness. Taking the Broncos +6 when they lose by 50 is no different than losing on a botched PAT.
Here are my guesses for this week’s lines:
I was pretty far off on the Falcons-Jaguars. I guess the market really is docking Jacksonville for its rough start. I’ll probably lay the wood there. The Broncos-Bears treats the Broncos as the much better team. I’m not so sure about that. Will probably take the points at home there too.
Oddly, I was also way off on the Giants — I thought Seattle might be favored, especially with Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley iffy, but I was wrong. I feel a Giants bounceback, but I made the game a pick ‘em, and I wouldn’t take the Seahawks unless they were getting the full three.
My Pats-Cowboys line was too big — Belichick/McCarthy is a big mismatch, but the Pats have no playmakers on offense. Probably a stay-away, but I’ll have to think about it more.
As I said, I’ll come up with the final picks on Friday.