MLB: Active Hall of Famers

People like to debate who belongs in the Hall of Fame, and there are nerd-stats and even some nerds themselves devoted to it. I’m into the idea, but I get a little bored of haggling over metrics and definitions. The problem is a player’s statistical profile is just what he’s done *on average* over the course of his career. In other words, someone’s career OPS, or even his total WAR doesn’t reflect who he was at his peak, and what the circumstances were.

Don Mattingly isn’t a Hall of Famer because he didn’t supplement his four-year peak with enough ordinary All-Star level seasons, but as a Yankee fan in the 1980s, it was obvious to me he was one of the best players in baseball over that span and on the trajectory before back issues derailed him. He had an MVP, four top-seven finishes for MVP, three gold gloves, struck out 147 times over 2,761 plate appearances and averaged .337/.381/.560 with 210 hits per year.

One thing I find underrated today are the old-school stats — hits, batting average, strikeouts. Making contact is a skill, hitting for average is a skill, and even if *on average* it doesn’t matter whether you reach base via walk or hit, it might make a big difference against better pitchers who don’t hand out many free passes, e.g., like pitchers you might find in deeper supply on playoff teams.

Bobby Abreu might have slightly more WAR than Ichiro Suzuki, thanks to his career .395 OBP, but Ichiro had 10 straight 200-hit seasons, five of which were 220-plus, which entails a much higher degree of difficulty. To me Ichiro is a no-brainer, Abreu borderline.

But one of my biggest criteria is whether a player was one of the best in the game for period of time. I care far less about someone’s career WAR or HR totals than whether he was like Mattingly, but instead surrounded by a decade of All-Star level play, even if it wasn’t MVP-consideration worthy.

I also think postseason success matters, particularly World Series titles. Sure it’s a small sample, but it’s the most important sample. The playoffs are imperfect but they are the very mechanism by which ultimate success in the sport is measured and achieved. It would be pathological to ignore the game’s signature signal, irrespective of your opinion on the adequacy of the sample.

While lack of postseason success doesn’t lock out inner-circle players like Mike Trout, it’s surely a tiebreaker for closer calls.

So with that understood, here are the active present day players I’d put in, by position.

(Post-script: I thought there would be more tough calls, but it was more obvious than I expected.)

Catcher:

Out

J.T. Realmuto is close, but at 33, he’d need 2-3 more peak seasons to qualify IMO.

Salvador Perez had that monster 48-homer year and has been a consistent power source for more than a decade. He also won five gold gloves. The problem is the .302 career on-base percentage.

First base:

In

Paul Goldschmidt — six top-six MVP finishes, four gold gloves, a top player spanning more than a decade.

Freddie Freeman — six top-six MVP finishes, a World Series ring, a top player spanning more than a decade, still possibly a couple good years left.

Out

Joey Votto — had six top-seven MVP finishes, but a slightly shorter peak and few playoff appearances over a longer career. Narrowly misses.

Second base

In

Jose Altuve — Has three top-five MVP finishes, won two World Series and is still going strong at a demanding defensive position.

Out

Marcus Semien — If he had 2-3 more strong years, he’d have a case, but his biggest year was in little league stadiums when he played for the Blue Jays, and he’s a late bloomer.

Third Base

In

Manny Machado — He’s had four top-five MVP finishes, won two gold gloves at a demanding position and is still only 31.

Nolan Arenado — The nine gold gloves and massive defensive WAR push him just over the top, as does his still solid production with the bat even after he left Coors Field.

Out

Jose Ramirez — Good, consistent hitting numbers, five top-six MVP finishes, but average defensively and never on the short list as the best player in baseball.

Shortstop

Maybe

Francisco Lindor — he’s only 30, so he could make it with three more strong seasons. He’s not there yet, though, given his modest offensive production with the Mets.

Out

Trea Turner — A great fantasy player, but not quite as good in real life with so-so defense and modest pop.

Carlos Correa — Too much time missed due to injury, but he’s still only 29 and could conceivably make a push if he had a few big years.

Outfield

In

Mike Trout — A no brainer despite the rash of injuries. Nine top-five MVP finishes, seven top-two, three MVP wins, a near 1.000 career OPS in a pitcher’s park.

Mookie Betts — Another no brainer. Six top-six MVP finishes, four top-two, six gold gloves, seamlessly playing second base and shortstop and two World Series wins. Still only 31 years old and very much at his peak.

Maybe

Aaron Judge — He’s old (32) for his meager number of plate appearances (3,780), but he has 62 and 52-homer seasons, and three top-four MVP finishes. If he has a couple more big years, he’s in, just due to the magnitude of his monster seasons.

Bryce Harper — Borderline, but I’ll say he deserves it, if he has a few more good years (he’s only 31.) Two MVPs, .910 career OPS.

On Pace

Juan Soto/Ronald Acuna

Pitchers

In

Shohei Ohtani — He’s a unique case, obviously, but he’s arguably the best player of all time, has averaged more than 9.0 WAR for three straight years over that span with two MVPs.

Justin Verlander — No brainer with three Cy Young awards, eight top-seven CY finishes, two World Series titles, 3,355 strikeouts, 258 wins and not finished yet.

Clayton Kershaw — Another no brainer despite the poor playoff track record. The 2.48 career ERA is off the charts in this era, as is the 1.00 WHIP. He also has three CY awards too, seven top-5 CY finishes.

Max Scherzer — The only other no brainer pitcher, Scherzer has 3 CYs, eight top-five CY finishes, two WS titles, 3,367 Ks.

Maybe

Gerrit Cole — He probably needs a couple more good seasons, but Cole has a CY and six top-five finishes. He also had an utterly dominant 326-K season and has been on the short list of the league’s best pitchers for more than half a decade.

Out

Chris Sale — He has seven top-six CY finishes, a 3.11 career ERA and 1.045 WHIP despite toiling in hitter’s parks. But he’s been hurt the last few years and probably wasn’t ever the best pitcher in baseball.

Jacob deGrom — DeGrom has been the best pitcher in baseball the last half decade whenever he’s been healthy, but that’s been rare. He has a career WHIP of .993, and an ERA of 2.53. He won back to back CYs and finished third the following year. He’d need to stay miraculously healthy for two more full seasons or so to reach Sandy Koufax territory.