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Monday Night Observations
That game went fairly well, with one exception: Aaron Jones, after a slow start, delivered in the end, and I’m now in second place in overall Primetime standings by 9.28 points.
Otherwise it was perfect, as Christian Watson (whom I sat for Rhamondre Stevenson) managed only 8.6 points, meaning I’m 16.2 to the good, based on that decision that flew in the face of the FantasyPros rankings and most of the advice I got on Twitter.
(Reminder: I occasionally ask start/sit questions on Twitter, but I never answer them. I don’t answer them because I have my own problems and don’t want to take on yours too. I ask them not to get actionable advice, but to read the reponses and see how they resonate. Often — as was the case this week, I go against it.)
That 16.2 surplus is especially good because I’m going to need courage for this coming week. My “star” QB and comcomitant Jaguars stack has to travel to the stingy Jets on a short week, while missing starting left tackle Cam Robinson — basically the nut-low scheduling/set-up-wise. I have Danny Dimes playing indoors against a soft Minnesota defense, but his weapons are so poor, it’s hard to count on him for much. I also could swap out Christian Kirk for Darius Slayton (likely a bridge too far) or Watson (maybe), and I have to decide between Pat Freiermuth (Raiders) and George Kittle (Team) at TE. For 250K, I’m not trying to start the highest *projected* scoring players, I’m aiming to get it right.
I also had the Packers -7 in the Circa Millions, putting me at 4-1 for the Week. If I got 10-0 the next two weeks, I’d probably have a shot at winning a fourth-quarter prize at 17-3. Going 10-0 is 1 in 1024 at 50/50, so a little less than 1 in 1000 if you have a small edge.
Baker Mayfield can still make some throws, but he holds the ball too long. He’s got a future as a quality backup/low-end starter.
Cam Akers (12-65-0, 3-3-35-0) looked healthy and spry. I won’t be in next year unless he’s cheap because he’s never stayed healthy for long.
Jones (17-90-0, 5-4-36-1) got his TD, and I was lucky he didn’t get a second one at the very end of the game. A.J. Dillon (11-36-2, 3-3-17-0) thankfully vultured two TDs from him too.
Romeo Doubs (5-5-55-0) is back and remains Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target on the short and intermediate routes. Watson (6-4-46-0) saw a couple red-zone looks and drew a PI downfield, but missed a signal from Rodgers at the end of the game that had he noticed and turned around would probably have resulted in an easy TD. Allen Lazard is droppable — it’s the rookies and the running backs now, with an occasional cameo from Randall Cobb.
At 6-8, the Packers have a good shot to make the playoffs if they win out — they play at Miami and home against the Vikings and Lions, all winnable, but no layups. It would be crazy to see Rodgers and Tom Brady in the playoffs after all.