I had the Chiefs -3.5 in the Circa Millions, they didn’t cover, I went 2-3 and am more or less drawing dead in Q2. If I went 15-0, I *might* snag a share of the prize, but that’s hard to do, and even in that event, someone might still go 18-2. The Chiefs had their chances at the end, they also threw a 14-point pick six at the goal line, but as I said yesterday, it’s not about the closeness or farness of the pick, it’s about the result. You are not handicapping probabilities but outcomes, and I am STILL trying to delete the probabilistic midwit garbage from my brain even now in 2025.
On the bright side, Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce did enough to get my Chiefs-stack team to 4-1. It’s middle of the pack in points, but I can get into the playoffs via record, and if I do, this team has legs with Rashee Rice coming back in two weeks and Jordan Addison also back then after his bye. My receivers are Ja’Marr Chase, Ladd McConkey, Worthy, Rice and Addison, and Javonte Williams and Tony Pollard have been more than adequate as my backs. Even though this isn’t one of my best teams, it could turn out to have the best chance of winning an overall.
One headwind on Mahomes is Andy Reid likes to punt on 4th-and-short. He did it a couple times when you know Dan Campbell and the Lions would have gone for it.
Otherwise Mahomes is QB2 right now, behind only Josh Allen. The Chiefs have morphed into a pass-first team, and that’s even with Rice, easily their best receiver, still out.
Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco are not startable for a good team, but both are usable during bye weeks or on bad ones. Hunt gets the TDs, Pacheco a little action in the passing game, though Brashard Smith is seeing a piece of that too.
Worthy got nine targets and a carry, but it was mostly short stuff, with Tyquan Thornton running the deeper routes. It’s crazy the Chiefs now have three deep threats including Hollywood Brown.
Travis Kelce had his best game, and he looked more or less like his old self. I’d really love to see what happens with Rice back if they turn Mahomes loose for 40 attempts per game.
Trevor Lawrence looks bad to me, but he scrambled well, and the Jaguars are somehow 4-1 with wins over the 4-1 Niners and Chiefs. It’s crazy their only loss was to the Jake Browning Bengals.
Brian Thomas made some plays, but this is a run-first offense, and no one else saw more than four targets. Travis Hunter is playing defense and saw only three targets. He looked good on them, but good luck deciding when to start him.
Travis Etienne looks smooth to me and more decisive than Bhayshul Tuten. You have to keep Tuten around just in case Etienne goes down, but he’s more Brian Robinson at this point than Woody Marks.