Monday Night Observations
Never in my life have I had Monday Night game(s) go this perfectly for me. Here’s what I needed going in:
(1) Saquon Barkley + 3 > Tyreek Hill and the Packers defense. Check
(2) Titans or Dolphins, preferably both, cover. Check
(3) Giants win outright. Check.
As a result, I have shockingly made the playoffs in my Primetime league, won a double week in my home picking pool (last week was tied) and tied for first place in the pool after going 12-3 ATS.
Third place pays $1100 in the Primetime, plus I get into the playoffs, for which my team is woefully unprepared (two bad defenses, e.g.) because I really didn’t think I would make it. And the picking pool is $70 per week, so another $140, plus a chance to win the whole thing.
It turns out I was 37 points out of second place in the Primetime, thankfully more than the 28 I left on my bench when I made that disastrous last-second swap of Brock Purdy for Dak Prescott in Week 5.
Here’s what I wrote after Week 5:
And the final kick in the nuts (although it’s almost funny at this point) is that Goff outscored Purdy by one point from my bench in Steak, i.e., it was still a bad decision to have Purdy in, even though, I tried to hedge against that by inflicting utter catastrophe on my Primetime team which is 1-4 and pretty much drawing dead even when Saquon Barkley returns.
And here were the Primetime standings after Week 5:
Here are the Primetime standings today (my win hasn’t updated yet):
I lost again in Week 6, then won eight games in a row, not that the record mattered. I do feel bad for Rod Lurie who had me dead to rights before Week 14, but here was his lineup:
He had in-game injuries to Hill and Nico Collins, and started Joshua Dobbs over Trevor Lawrence because Lawrence was supposedly gimpy heading into the game and facing the Browns. Had he started Lawrence, he gets third instead of me. And had I not put Evan Engram (32.5 points) in my flex over Kenneth Walker, I also lose.
It’s important to keep in mind how much fantasy football and the NFL itself are a tragedy or errors and a jungle of bad information. No matter how much you want to defenestrate from a bad decision or bad bounce, it’s happening everywhere all the time.
. . .
I only watched the highlights of both games — it’s impossible to find the 40-minute version at 8 am Western European Time. So here are a couple quick takes:
I’ve already mentioned how I think Hill is a top-three receiver in NFL history, so it’s no surprise the Dolphins offense would struggle without him. There are a few guys — Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Hill, e.g., by whose presence an ordinary quarterback becomes a star and a good quarterback becomes the best in the league.
Prior to Moss, Tom Brady was a 25-TD/year game manager. After Moss, he was outscoring Peyton Manning. (Rob Gronkowski was also a “king-maker” target in his own right.) Before Owens, Donovan McNabb had 16 TDs and 11 picks. With Owens, he had 31 and eight, respectively. Hill is doing for Tua what Owens did for McNabb.
Hill, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams are my three MVPs. Dak Prescott has played great since the 49ers game, but I don’t think you can separate him from Josh Allen and Brock Purdy the way the other three separate from the best players at their positions.
Raheem Mostert has 18 touchdowns with four games to go. What’s crazy about this is his teammate De’Von Achane also has nine TDs himself in essentially five games. And of course Hill has 12 TDs too.
I don’t really understand how the Titans came back down two touchdowns with 4:39 left. I saw the actual scores, but the highlights excluded everything in between. How badly did the Dolphins look on those final drives on both sides of the ball?
His late fumble notwithstanding, I love Saquon Barkley. He delivered big time for me, and I hope he remains a Giant.
I didn’t get to see enough Tommy DeVito — his rollout pass to Isaiah Hodgins was like Joe Montana to Dwight Clark, and he took no sacks and threw no picks. At the very least the Giants seem to have found a competent backup.
WanDale Robinson had a big day as a rusher and receiver. He’s more of a gadget guy than a No. 1, so the Giants still need a WR, but if he and Darren Waller can ever stay healthy, they will be good building blocks.
Brian Daboll is a good coach. The Giants play hard and compete every week despite being arguably the worst team in the league a few weeks ago.