Monday Night Observations

Annoyed

I went 1-3 in my NFFC leagues for two reasons: (1) Christian McCaffrey failed to score 17 points (because he was inactive), and I failed to bid enough on Jordan Mason because at the time of the FAAB last week, the Niners were flat-out lying about his likelihood of playing and like an idiot I believed them; and (2) I sat Mason in another league at the last minute for Jaleel McLaughlin because Fantasy Pros (that scourge of a site I swear off every year) had Mason not just lower, but absolutely buried in its RB rankings. I would have ignored a close call between the two, but I thought if he’s this low, the market must place a high likelihood on McCaffrey playing, and I don’t want to take a zero. This is the problem with being lazy and outsourcing your research to a bunch of midwits with misaligned incentives. I really should have delved deeply into all the McCaffrey reports and made my own assessment.

The problem with sites like Fantasy Pros is the grading system is different than the fantasy game itself. I imagine you’d get dinged hard for ranking Mason high if McCaffrey plays, and so it’s safer to rank him low. Moreover, one thing the fantasy industry is really bad at is pricing in that kind of risk. If everyone’s playing the market is pretty good at evaluating opportunity, per-play production and hence output, but if someone is 50/50 to get opportunities at all, they can’t handle it very well. Obviously Mason was a good bet to go for 20 points if McCaffrey were scratched, and so he should have been projected for 14 if it were 50/50 (he’d get *some* points even if McCaffrey played), but that we was projected for less than five (IIRC) made me think it was like 80/20.

But I knew it was a *very* bad sign Monday morning (after it was too late to pivot) when McCaffrey was still not deemed definite — it’s not like he got hurt last week, but he’s had a full month to heal. (Actually maybe the Achilles was last week, but because injury reporting sucks and teams lie, it’s impossible to know the real reason he missed the game. If it’s still the calf, all bets are off because if he’s not back in a month, five weeks won’t magically heal him.)

In any event, I’m glad I have Mason in two NFFC leagues, and I went all-in to get him (and I used him) in my RotoWire Dynasty one at least. But I should have been 3-1 if I had used my brain, and am instead 1-3, the win thankfully in the Primetime.

• The 40-minute edited version of the game for God knows what reason flashed the final score (32-19) briefly after I hit play. So it spoiled the game for me, and the whole time I was just trying to figure out how they got to that number, realizing probably Jake Moody went bananas for some people, and he did.

• I love that Allen Lazard got the TDs and not Garrett Wilson. Sometimes schadenfreude is all you got. I don’t think Lazard is a priority pickup, but the Jets tree is pretty thin, and Rodgers knows and apparently still trusts him.

• Aaron Rodgers looked good to me, like his old self. He threw accurate passes, had a few drops, and the pick was bad luck. No idea why Mike Williams was ignored though.

• Breece Hall got all the work until garbage time. No surprise, but he still looks like a top-five pick despite the fumble and poor per-play output.

• Jordan Mason ran hard, looked a bit like Isiah Pacheco out there. If McCaffrey is out, that’s how I’d value him.

• Deebo Samuel benefits a little (eight carries) with McCaffrey out. Just has a slightly bigger role in the ground game.

• Brock Purdy played well, but didn’t have to do much.

• You have to love that Juaun Jennings led the 49ers in receiving yards and Kyle Juszczyk was third when you have no part of the 49ers passing game. George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk will get theirs eventually, but you just can’t count on volume for either one.