NFBC Main Event

I had my Main Event draft today — a $1750 buy-in, $200K overall prize contest that took place live in Las Vegas, except for my team that drafted online. I drew the 13th pick.

Here are the results:

1.13 Trea Turner — This was a big relief. Had Turner been gone (ADP of 12 in recent Mains) I had resolved to take Yordan Alvarez to get a head start in batting average and power. But Turner gives you steals and average, and plenty of power from a middle infield spot.

2.3 Yordan Alvarez — It was between Alvarez and Shohei Ohtani, who I had just written about at length, arguing it was unlikely baseball would seriously go after him. But the small chance that it’s something worse than what it looks like to me — just Ohtani having a gambling problem and losing a bunch of money to a bookie — or the negative attention weighing on him pushed me to Alvarez. Had Alvarez been gone, I probably would have taken Ohtani over Austin Riley.

3.13 Corey Seager — Pitching was flying off the board as it usually does in Main Events, and I was hoping to get two among Zac Gallen, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Logan Webb and Max Fried at the 3/4 turn. But Seager fell, and now that he’s likely to return for the first week of the year, I couldn’t pass him up. While I was a little light in steals, and I already had two shortstops, I had a killer start in batting average, runs and RBI, enough power and some steals. The batting average base especially allows you to take liberties with low-average power hitters later in the draft.

4.3 Zac Gallen — Gallen, it turns out, was still there, and I narrowly took him over Fried. Gallen’s been good for the last two years, and he’s in a good situation. Like any pitcher, he just needs to stay healthy.

5.13 Paul Sewald — It was either he or Wyatt Langford, and Sewald’s ADP had crept up with all the closer injuries. I felt I had a better chance of sneaking Langford in five picks later in early Round 6. Incidentally, I now have Sewald in all four of my leagues.

6.3 Shane Bieber — I missed Langford by one pick. I was actually stuck here as I also missed on my backup plan, J.T. Realmuto, who went at the turn too. The clock ran down, and I went with the pitcher in the next tier I most wanted and who *might* not have been there on the way back. It was the one place where the draft didn’t quite fall the way I wanted it to

7.13 Teoscar Hernandez — I mentioned in the podcast there was one player to whom I gave a second look and realized I needed to draft. It was Hernandez. He apparently had trouble picking up the ball at his home park (.217/.263/.380) last year but .295/.344/.486 on the road. Not that Dodger Stadium is a great hitter’s park, but as long as he can see the ball well enough he should thrive in that loaded lineup. I can envision a 30-100-.290-type season.

8.3 Jackson Chourio — This was two rounds earlier than he goes, but I didn’t want to cut it close and risk missing out on him at 9.13. When I made my initial (non-ADP-influenced) rankings he was my No. 35 overall player. I was shocked to find out he was ranked in the 100s by the market. He hit 22 homers and stole 42 bases as a 19-year old at Double-A last year, and the Brewers have no reason not to give him at-bats. This reminds me of Julio Rodriguez 2022 or Corbin Carroll last year.

9.13 Ha-Seong Kim — This was a big surprise. I didn’t expect Kim, whose ADP was 101, to make it all the way to 133. But he was a perfect fit as he qualifies at second and third, and I was light in steals.

10.3 Yu Darvish — After taking Kim, I was wavering between Darvish and Carlos Rodon, but Rodon went two picks ahead of me and resolved it. I love veteran pitchers in good situations coming off down years.

11.13 Jose Alvarado — Another bargain I didn’t expect to make it all the way back to me. Alvarado was going at 134 in recent mains, and this was pick 163. Perfect second closer, pitching for a good team and having *some* claim to the job.

12.3 Aaron Civale — I was actually hoping for either Alvarado or Civale, and I got both. The Rays are wizards with starting pitchers, and Civale is a good candidate for a breakout.

13.13 Marcel Ozuna — He hit 40 homers last year while in the middle of a loaded lineup. I now had plenty of pop between him, Alvarez, Teoscar Hernandez and Seager.

14.3 Walker Buehler — I don’t know when he’s coming back, but he’s a “when”, not an “if” like Gerrit Cole and Eury Perez. And he pitches for the best team in baseball.

15.13 Rhys Hoskins — Maybe I got a little greedy here. I also wanted Josh Lowe and needed an OF who could run. But I needed a first baseman, Hoskins’ ADP was slightly higher, the corners were getting thin, I already had one stash player in Buehler and was a little wary of getting two so early. But I should have looked at team 14, who already had Bryce Harper and Vlad Guerrero, meaning at least one of the two teams at the turn probably wasn’t taking Hoskins before I picked again. As it turned out, he took Lowe one pick ahead of me in Round 16. Probaby my biggest mistake in the draft.

16.3 Jorge Polanco — I was a little tilted when Lowe went, but took some deep breaths and tried to get the player I most needed. Polanco fills 2B (after I moved Kim to 3B), should put up good counting stats and even runs a little. But Lowe was a much better fit.

17.13 Zach Littell — Another Rays pitcher who has showed some signs. Pitching was flying off the board, well ahead of previous drafts’ ADP.

18.3 Jon Gray — A solid veteran on a good team, Gray hasn’t made the leap yet, but I like his floor and his chance to get wins, especially against the A’s and Angels.

19.13 Max Meyer — A big time prospect coming back from Tommy John surgery, Meyer won a spot in the Marlins’ rotation. Just felt like going upside over need here.

20.3 Jarred Kelenic — The second player (after Sewald) I have in all four leagues. I wondered why no one else thought Kelenic was such a no-brainer breakout candidate, and then the Braves signed Adam Duvall to platoon with him. I actually don’t mind this. If Kelenic crushes righties the team will make room for him. Duvall isn’t the issue — it’s really still just about whether Kelenic will live up to his considerable pedigree or not.

21.13 Joel Payamps — I had two closers already, but Devin Williams is out for at least half the year, and Payamps is the best option they have right now. I also wanted Clarke Schmidt, but Payamps had the slightly higher ADP, and I thought maybe I could sneak Schmidt into Round 22.

22.3 Eugenio Suarez — Schmidt went one pick before me — what I get for being greedy with closers. I needed Suarez though as my final corner. He’s an everyday player with pop, whose defense keeps him in the lineup. He strikes out a ton, but also hits the ball hard enough to avoid being one of the true batting average dregs of the league.

23.13 Connor Wong — I had to get a catcher at some point. What I like about Wong is he runs a little — you sneak an extra five steals having him at catcher, and the only category in which I’m light is steals.

24.3 Dane Dunning — I wanted more pitching depth, and I prefer established veterans on good teams, even ones with limited upside. This pick cost me Masyn Winn, but Winn is a SS, and I already had Seager and Turner with Ozuna at DH, so I couldn’t use him anyway.

25.13 Lars Nootbaar — I needed a final outfielder, and he slipped. Nootbaar runs a bit, gets on base and scores runs, but is out for a couple weeks with a rib injury. He wasn’t what I envisioned as my fifth OF, but I feel okay about it.

26.3 Junior Caminero — I intended to get him once I went light at the corners, and I like that Kim can move to 2B if need be to make room too. The problem with Caminero is he doesn’t run, and the Rays prospect promotion pace can be glacial. But there’s upside if he rips up Triple-A, or the Rays get desperate for the bat.

27.13 Gary Sanchez — My second catcher, who’s really a DH in a hitter’s park. Sanchez could lose playing time, but if he gets 400-450 at-bats, he’s capable of leading the position in homers.

28.3 David Robertson — I had Tommy Pham queued up, but I couldn’t pass up a player I think has a much better chance to close for the World Series champs than his ADP reflects. He’s my fourth reliever, but no closer is a lock to stay healthy and keep the job, especially when you don’t invest in the elite ones, so the depth could prove useful.

29.13 Cavan Biggio — I missed out on Pham, but I had Biggio flagged as a late-round pick. He could play regularly, runs a little and qualifies at a few positions. Moreover, I can tolerate his batting average thanks to my first three picks.

30.3 Dylan Carlson — He could start early in the year with Nootbaar out, and he was once a prospect in his own right.

Summary: I’m pleased with this draft. I stayed focused, took some calculated risks, but didn’t go full YOLO with it and made sure to get my innings, saves and at-bats. The area in which I’m a little light is steals, but I’m not that light, maybe one player away, and it’s relatively easy to find that player on waivers these days. Moreover, because I’m getting steals from third base (Kim) and a few from catcher (Wong), it’s even easier than if steal-rich positions were already maxed out. The only challenge is building those steals around some truly sluggish players like Alvarez, Ozuna and Seager who get virtually zero. But you usually have to concede *something* in a competitive draft.

Roster By Position:

C Connor Wong/Gary Sanchez

1B Rhys Hoskins

2B Jorge Polanco

3B Ha-Seong Kim

SS Trea Turner

CI Eugenio Suarez

MI Corey Seager

OF Yordan Alvarez/Teoscar Hernandez/Jackson Chourio/Jarred Kelenic/Lars Nootbaar

UT Marcel Ozuna

SP Zac Gallen/Shane Bieber/Yu Darvish/Aaron Civale/Walker Buehler/Zach Littell/Jon Gray

RP Paul Sewald/Jose Alvarado

B Max Meyer/Joel Payamps/Dane Dunning/Junior Caminero/David Robertson/Cavan Biggio/Dylan Carlson