NFBC Main Event
Pick No. 7
I had my 15-team Main Event draft today out of the seven hole, and for a Main it went pretty smoothly. I had mapped out a bunch of scenarios ahead of time, and it more or less fell the way I had expected.
Here are the full results:
1.7 Paul Skenes — I wouldn’t do this in a 12, but the ratio of pitching draft capital spend (DCS) to hitting DCS is much higher in the 15. This pushes up the values of the starting pitchers generally, especially at the top.
2.9 Bryan Woo — After I looked at the implied values given the high pitching spend in the Main, I knew I was going SP-SP the first two rounds so long as Woo or Chris Sale made it back to me. Jackson Chourio fell too, and I was tempted to abandon the strategy, but either I was going by my numbers or not, so I stuck with it. (Looks like I dodged a bullet too.)
3.7 Trea Turner — Having passed on hitting the first two rounds, I had to have steals in the third no matter what. My order of preference was Turner, Pete Crow-Armstrong and then Zach Neto. But getting a SS in the third round triggered another decision in Round 5 which might be my only regret.
4.9 Ketel Marte — I missed Brett Rooker, who would have been perfect, by one pick. But getting 25-plus HR and good average from my second baseman was good enough. With the two pitchers to start the draft, I had to make sure I was getting enough power and speed.
5.7 Ryan Helsley — This was the decision I resolved to make if I got Turner or Neto rather than PCA in Rd 3. I needed to get a closer, and I had been planning on waiting for Raisel Iglesias in Rd 6. But in last night’s ADP, Iglesias crept up into early Rd 6 and wouldn’t have made it to me. Had I taken an OF in Rd 3, I would have snagged Mookie Betts here and gambled on Iglesias coming back. But the combination of filling all my MI spots right away AND risking Iglesias not coming back made me hold my nose and take Helsley.
6.9 Freddie Freeman — Betts was gone, Iglesias was there, so I should have had Betts/Iglesias and wound up with Helsley/Freeman. Six of one, half dozen of the other, you might say, but the outcomes might be very different. But it was better to have a 1B than fill up my MI at least.
7.7 George Springer — My two targets, Randy Arozarena and Josh Naylor went a couple picks ahead of me, so I went with Springer who just needs to do half of what he did last year to earn this slot. I was a little light on steals, but not too bad as Springer runs, and Freeman even chips in from first base.
8.9 Jeremy Pena — I might have jumped the gun on this, as I was looking at the projections sheet, and Pena was easily the higher hitter left, but his ADP was 132, and this was pick 114. There was no one I’d prefer over him left, but after all the concern about filling up my MI with Betts, I did it anyway with Pena.
9.7 Teoscar Hernandez — Hernandez played hurt last year, and he’s healthy now and in that highly favorable lineup. I was just stacking power here as all my guys are 20-homerish types, and I needed someone who could push for 30.
10.9 Josh Hader — I had to do it. He slipped past ADP, and why not gamble on your second closer? I thought I might snag Bryan Abreu in the following round, but he was taken with the very next pick, which was a relief, as there was nothing I could do about it, and I was free to use my 11th round pick on my actual target.
11.7 Adley Rutschman — I think Rutschman is mispriced. He’s still the same guy as a couple years ago, just had one bad year and one injury-marred one. I also liked getting a 20-HR catcher as I was still a little light on power.
12.9 Ranger Suarez — I missed out Luis Castillo by a few picks, so I settled for Suarez. Pure projections play, as I needed to get some solid innings eaters to backup Skenes and Woo.
13.7 Matthew Boyd — Same as Suarez. Projections love him, need the innings, wins and Ks.
14.9 Spencer Strider — I don’t know how long he’s out, but it might only be a couple weeks. There’s still a lot of upside here for a 14th-round price.
15.7 J.T. Realmuto — I thought I might regret the Strider pick if someone took Realmuto, but luckily he made it all the way back. Realmuto is a sneaky source of steals at catcher too.
16.9 Sal Frelick — I had only two OF and wanted to fill up with some young, upside players in good parks who run. Frelick fit the bill.
17.7 Mickey Moniak — A staple of my teams this year, he’ll be massive during homestands, and you can sub him out on the road if need be.
18.9 Brett Baty — I needed a 3B, and Baty, like Realmuto, is a sneaky source of steals (eight last year) from a largely non-running position.
19.7 Cade Cavalli — Was 50/50 between him and Andrew Painter, went with Cavalli because Painter could lose his job when Zack Wheeler returns.
20.9 TJ Friedl — I wanted a final OF, more steals and a guy who hits at the top of the lineup in a good park.
21.7 Josh Jung — I needed a corner, and Jung is one. He can hit if he ever stays healthy, and he has a job.
22.9 Masyn Winn — Winn slots in as my UT, but this was one of my favorite picks — young hitter in a growth phase, who runs and has a little pop.
23.7 Spencer Steer — Another hitter with some pop in a good park, who I’ll probably need when Jung inevitably gets hurt.
24.9 Roki Sasaki — He’s been horrible this spring, but he righted the ship as a reliever last year, and the upside is still massive if he can do it as a starter.
25.7 Noah Cameron — No idea who this is, but seems he has a rotation spot for the Royals and was good last year.
26.9 Garrett Mitchell — I’m surprised he doesn’t go a few rounds earlier. Top power-speed tools prospect who plays good defense in a good hitter’s park.
27.7 Michael McGreevy — Pitcher with good command in a good park, having a good spring.
28.9 Dylan Beavers — Good power-speed prospect who has a chance to play this year.
29.7 Shane Bieber — There’s a chance he’ll be back around the same time as Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, but he’s much cheaper.
30.9 Jordan Leasure — Hopefully he records some saves at his leisure.
Roster By Position:
C Adley Rutschman/JT Realmuto
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Ketel Marte
3B Brett Baty
SS Trea Turner
CI Josh Jung
MI Jeremy Pena
OF George Springer/Teoscar Hernandez/Sal Frelick/Mickey Moniak/TJ Friedl
UT Maysn Winn
SP Paul Skenes/Bryan Woo/Ranger Suarez/Matthew Boyd/Spencer Strider/Cade Cavalli/Roki Sasaki
RP Ryan Helsley/Josh Hader
B Spencer Steer/Noah Cameron/Garrett Mitchell/Michael McGreevy/Dylan Beavers/Shane Bieber/Jordan Leasure