Discover more from Real Man Sports
No One Knows Anything
Do your own research, make your own judgment calls, learn from your own mistakes
That is, if you want to be like the best players. If you make an earnest effort you might discover something useful.
No one knows anything
That might sound obvious, but watch how you react when a good player in your league snipes you on a pick. He knows! No, he doesn’t. Calmly evaluate the best picks among the remaining options. If you choose wisely, there’s a 90 percent chance it’ll be better than the player on whom you were just sniped.
Be careful not to consume too many opinions during draft season — pretty soon you won’t remember which ones are yours and which ones were someone else’s
If your judgment turns out to be off-base, you can improve it. With someone else’s the only way you can improve is to start from scratch next year with your own.
Don’t worry about how good your draft feels to you
Some people don’t like taking an early TE or QB because they feel like they’re “chasing” all draft. Who cares how you feel while you draft? Once the season starts, half your picks will be busts anyway.
Be aggressive, take the best players and learn to get comfortable with weaknesses at certain positions
Checking all the positional boxes in August has little to do with actual gameplay in October and November. Fix it as you go.
Identify the players you like in advance and be aggressive targeting them anywhere near ADP
Pick with confidence, don’t panic-pick with the clock winding down.
Draft for upside — even in the first few rounds
Floor matters early, but err on the side of aggression, not caution. Only one team out of 12 wins the league. Unlike in investing, for example, there is asymmetry between risk and reward. (In the NFFC, only 2-3 teams of make the playoffs.)
Don’t change your mind unless the fundamentals change
Don’t get talked out of a player because he dropped some passes in the summer, or fantasy football Twitter is souring on him. Ask yourself whether the fundamentals — health, skills, team context and role — have changed. If not, HODL.
Don’t lose the spirit
Just because some people do this professionally with hundreds of leagues, careful tallies of player “shares” and diversified, strategically-hedged portfolios doesn’t mean you should think that way. Play with amounts you can afford to lose, make your calls, put your chips in and live and die with your choices. You might have a bad year, and it *will* bother you, but that’s fantasy football. Don’t get confused by the practices of those who have different goals. You are doing it for the glory, they are trying to get a return on investment. It’s not the same thing.