Settling Up (NFL 2023-24)

In the spirit of transparency, I did this last year too.

This year, here were most of the bets:

I can keep it simple with the props for which I deposited $800 and after the Chiefs covered I now have $477.37 for a loss of $323. For the side bets, I lost $90 to Seslowsky, pushed on the Steak League with Jeff and Shoe, pushed on my Falcons sides, lost $20 each to Erickson and Whalen on the Giants, won $50 (not pictured) on the four-team SB bet with Erickson in Week 12 (had the Chiefs) and $300 on the Steak League draft SB bet — those NLMs left me the Chiefs. I won another $50 from Schuler on the Chiefs too.

So total on props and sides is minus $453 and plus $400 for minus $53. After all that.

For fantasy leagues, I won’t count the free BCL leagues (though I could), but I spent $70 plus $1,750 ($1,820) on entries and won $1,100 for third place in the Primetime, so minus $720 for leagues. Plus I lost $200 on the NFFC Postseason Contest (not pictured), so minus $920.

Total -$920 and -$53 = -$973.

I spent $225 in survivor entries too, plus $125 on my home picking pool. But I won two home-pool weeks, including a double one for a profit of $210. So the total for that is minus $140.

So the grand total is -$973 - $140 = -$1,113, not including $1,050 of comped Beat Chris Liss leagues and not including the ~$200 worth of steak dinner I’m going to consume as a free eater in LA on Thursday night. (As I’m not boozing much these days, it’s $200 and not $250-$300 at the dinner unfortunately.)

. . .

So this was a losing year. Last year I won $1,569, so over two years, not counting the comped leagues, I’m only barely in the positive. And counting the comped leagues, I’ve lost a little money.

But the biggest takeaway is how small I bet. I really do try to live (and gamble) below my means which is why I could easily change the title of this newsletter to Nutless Monkey Sports.

I do think roughly breaking even while getting swings at the big prizes is the way to go. I’m in most of the national, overall contests, and I expect to take one down one of these years, whether it’s the NFBC Main Event, Circa Millions, Circa Survivor, the NFFC postseason contest or the overall Primetime. But not only will I not go bust trying, I won’t even feel the least bit of financial strain.

That’s probably not the most exciting message with which to leave you, but it’s the truth. Sports gambling in largely efficient markets is hard and requires patience. Being right about other things is much easier.