Surviving Week 3

Last week was relatively uneventful with the Cowboys and Bills both winning easily. I moved away from the Bills toward the Cowboys (8 Cowboys, 3 Bills, 1 Giants) because I had a bad vibe, but it turned out to be nothing. Through two weeks, having used six teams, I still have all 12 entries left.

Let’s look at the distribution for Week 3:

As you can see, it’s tight at the top, and that means no pot-odds consideration for this week. Alan Seslowsky wanted to use the 49ers in our pool, so I let him, even though as a Giants fan, it’s kind of off limits for me to go there.

I’ll spread my other entries between the Chiefs, Jaguars and Cowboys, though if I weren’t a Giants fan, I would definitely include the 49ers. The Giants are coming off a dramatic win, and playing on a short week, and have neither Saquon Barkley, nor Andrew Thomas, so it could get ugly tonight against a nasty defense.

The Chiefs will probably roll, but Justin Fields should be turned loose to play instinctively, and when he does he can cause some havoc. He knocked Seslowsky and me out last year against the Pats and played great that game.

I like the Jaguars coming off a loss, but the Texans always seem to play them tough. Maybe I’ll use them on 1-2 entries.

The Cowboys should win easily in Arizona, but I could also see them showing up flat on the road for a game they’re expected to win so easily. Still, that’s more likely to mean the Cardinals backdoor a cover than win outright.

I’ll probably go something like 4 Cowboys, 4 Chiefs, 2 Jaguars and *maybe* one Ravens in addition to the 49ers one we already have. I don’t have strong feelings this week, but not really any bad vibes, either.