I don’t want to talk much more about this than I already have. I did something foolish and paid the price. Just take the pot-odds-adjusted chalk for x weeks until you’re out of top teams, then get creative and vibey with your feels. Don’t ever do it prematurely when a team like the Bills is available. I also might have looked ahead slightly to this week when the Bills host the Saints (no brainer), and that’s also a no-no.
One could argue it’s easy to say that in retrospect, and you have to choose lesser teams at some point, but you should do that later in the year when (a) you have no choice; and (b) have more information about the players. I thought Michael Vagenix was good, but I really didn’t have a large enough sample to make that call. Six or seven games in, who’s who is much clearer, and while anyone can have an off game, it’s less likely you’re just flat wrong about who he is.
So that was that. I would take the Bills this week if I had them, otherwise the Lions. Don’t FA, and you’re less likely to FO.
Alan Seslowsky and I went into more detail on the video. It starts about 15 minutes in:
I'm in a super large knockout...2000 peeps are left ..every few weeks they make us take 2 teams...this week one of them . Would you just settle and take both Bills and Lions this week? And worry about later....later?