Thanksgiving Day Observations
Could've Been Worse
It doesn’t matter how connected you are with friends and family, if you don’t go minimum 2-1 ATS you might as well be eating McDonalds alone in your car.
Fortunately I did go 2-1, and I also used the two winners (Packers +2.5 and Bengals +7) in the Circa Millions, though even if I win the other three, I’ll still be just short for the quarter at 15-4-1.
The only real negative for me was Amon Ra St. Brown getting hurt on his first target— I have him on a once-contending team that was on the bubble, and it’s likely I’m drawing dead there now.
My Chiefs stack team, also on the bubble, got off to a nice start despite Ja’Marr Chase having a modest game — good chance it’s in the top-700 again (playoff line) by week’s end:
I also missed a good chunk of the Lions game while carving the turkey and eating dinner — don’t forget I’m in Portugal, five hours ahead of eastern time.
Jordan Love is in the Jalen Hurts category — elite game manager. Neither of these guys will sling it all over the field that often, but they don’t make a lot of mistakes and get it done when it counts. Love had four TDs, no picks and no sacks. Very clean showing on the road in a national game.
Josh Jacobs was back and looked like himself though he didn’t get in the end zone for once.
Dontayvion Wicks led the team in receiving and scored twice though it was Christian Watson who got the most targets (10) and seems like the team’s No. 1 now if you can call it that. Mercifully they didn’t force feed possession receiver Romeo Doubs.
This is why you trade for and pay Micah Parsons, by the way.
The Lions are not the Lions, and now they’re without ARSB likely for a few weeks as well as Sam LaPorta for the year. Jameson Williams is a poor man’s George Pickens — should excel with the top guy out. Isaac TeSlaa is worth picking up for the next couple weeks too.
Jared Goff completed 20 of 26 passes and didn’t throw a pick, but he was pressured a lot, and the offense hasn’t been the same. Part of it could be the departure of Ben Johnson, but the offensive line isn’t nearly as good either, which is why Frank Ragnow had to come out of retirement. Not sure when he’ll actually suit up, but they could have used him.
Jahmyr Gibbs was contained, and while David Montgomery scored, he still saw only eight carries to Gibbs’ 20.
The Chiefs blew this game — no idea why Andy Reid wouldn’t use his timeouts at the end of the first half, and he had at least two ill-advised punts.
The Chiefs remind me of the Chargers now — like Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes can make amazing plays, but the pass protection is bad, and it’s hard for him to be consistent from the pocket. Mahomes also uncharacteristically sailed a few throws.
Rashee Rice is almost a lock to produce every week. He gets red zone looks, screens and deep intermediate throws. He’s a top-three WR along with Chase and JSN.
Xavier Worthy is involved but he’s too small and not as reliable as Rice. He got most of his yards on an amazing scramble play by Mahomes, but doesn’t get many looks near the end zone.
Travis Kelce had at least one drop (so did Rice), but he’s used near the goal line and is usually good for at least one long play over the middle per game.
Dak Prescott played a great game against a good defense. He threw one pick early but was nearly flawless after that.
CeeDee Lamb woke up after a couple bad games and held onto the ball this time. George Pickens was quiet until the fourth quarter and lost a fumble, but still had a solid game. This is the best tandem in the league.
The Cowboys defense isn’t nearly as soft as it was early in the year. They are a sleeper in the NFC now. In fact, I’d give them a better chance than the Lions despite trailing them by half a game.
Bengals +7 was such an easy call. The Ravens are not remotely themselves on either side of the ball. Lamar Jackson actually moved better than he has in a few games — still not peak-mobility Lamar — but was a turnover machine with a pick and two lost fumbles. It’s amazing he couldn’t get it going even against that defense.
Derrick Henry showed glimpses, especially on the 28-yard TD run, but gameflow has always been his problem, and the Ravens aren’t built to give him good gameflow anymore.
Isaiah Likely led the team with 95 receiving yards, but he moronically tried to reach the ball over the goal line on a 43-yard catch and fumbled for a touchback. There was no need as even had he gotten tackled his momentum would have taken him over the line easily. Mark Andrews had 47 yards too as the Bengals simply do not guard tight ends.
Zay Flowers had a terrible game — two catches for six yards on seven targets, but had a 36-yard TD called back due to OPI which I didn’t see.
The Ravens are not a playoff-caliber team, but could still win the division as they play the mediocre Steelers twice.