I was thinking today about a YOLO, DGAF style draft you might do with only *plausible* ceiling in mind, i.e., without regard to risk. Here’s my version (and maybe I should do this in one draft), based on the latest ADP:
Round 1 — Christian McCaffrey — he’s the obvious ceiling pick here given how much volume he could see in all phases if he holds up. Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley. (I avoided Ja’Marr Chase because he’s the 1.1, even though his ceiling is obviously just as high.)
Round 2 — De’Von Achane — he’s got a calf injury and might be iffy for Week 1, but if you knew he and Tua Tagovailoa would both play 17 games he’s probably going where Jahmyr Gibbs is. HM: Brock Bowers
Round 3 — Tyreek Hill — if Hill showed last year was just due to injuries, he could go back to being a top-three WR and lead the league in yardage. The tree is narrow in Miami. HM: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Round 4 — Kenneth Walker — He’s always hurt, but if he ever played 17 games at full capacity he’d be a top-five RB. HM: Xavier Worthy
Round 5 — Rashee Rice — What if he gets suspended for only four games? What if he picks up where he left off before getting hurt last year? What if his suspension is pushed to 2026? HM: RJ Harvey
Round 6 — D’Andre Swift — Swift had 253 carries and 42 catches last year. The Bears did very little to upgrade his competition for touches and brought in an offensive coordinator who likes to throw to the backs. HM: Travis Hunter
Round 7 — Jordan Addison — he’s suspended for three games, but after that, he’s the Year 3 WR with 19 touchdowns on 207 career targets for a team that has no third WR of which to speak. HM: Stefon Diggs
Round 8 — Cooper Kupp — What if he’s not washed? Seattle has no established No. 3 and no established TE. HM: Tyler Warren and Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Round 9 — Bo Nix — He could be Drew Brees in Sean Payton’s offense with rushing ability. The Browns gave him Harvey and Evan Engram this offseason too. HM: Evan Engram, Jayden Reed
Round 10 — Bhayshul Tuten — He runs a 4.32 at 209 pounds, could take over the job. HM: Jayden Higgins
Round 11 — Caleb Williams — He has DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, Swift and head coach Ben Johnson. He also ran for 489 yards last year. HM: Jaydon Blue
Round 12 — Justin Fields — He’s a top-five QB if he plays all 17 games and is allowed to run wild. HM: Nick Chubb (what if he’s himself again?)
Round 13 — Drake Maye — Dual threat QB in a pass-friendly offense with new weapons. HM: Jordan Love
Round 14 — Keaton Mitchell — explosive playmaker tied to elite offense. HM: JJ McCarthy, Woody Marks
Round 15 — Dont’e Thornton — Even with the Amari Cooper signing, Thornton will get his looks if he’s the real deal at 6-5 and with a 4.30 40. HM: Sean Tucker
Round 16 — Breshard Smith — Runs a 4.39 40, and Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have a decent amount of wear on them. HM: Michael Penix
Round 17 — Eric Ayomanor — If Cam Ward is good, someone other than Calvin Ridley will have a good year. HM: Chig Okonkwo
Round 18+ — Jalen Royals — If Rice is suspended, and Hollywood Brown can’t stay healthy, Royals should get his shot. HM: Dameon Pierce, Cam Ward, Roman Wilson, Jack Bech