I made some lines for Week 1, guessed where they’d be and then noted the difference between my lines and the actual ones below. I won’t necessarily base my picks for the Circa super contest on this — these are just preliminary leanings:
My biggest outliers are the Rams (the Super Bowl champs should be home favorites, though because the line never crosses the key number (three) on either side, the disparity is not as large as it seems) and the Cowboys (same thing.)