I’m not going to do “Guessing The Lines” as I’ve done in past seasons. That’s kind of entertaining, but I don’t think it does much. Your instincts aren’t about average numbers they’re about outcomes. If you think Team X is due for a bounce back against Team Y, moving the line from four to three isn’t the answer. You might bet X on the moneyline, you might fade Y in Survivor, but these micro-changes in the line projections are not what this is really about.
Instead, I’m just going to eyeball the games, share my thoughts, let them percolate for a few days then make my final picks. Some of what I post here might make it through to the final draft, and some of it will not. But it’s useful to get the wheels turning.
I like the Eagles to win decisively over the Cowboys. I probably won’t use it for Circa Millions because it would entail turning in my picks early, but then again I might. Line is now up to 8.5.
No feel on Chiefs-Chargers as of yet. Also travel to Brazil is a wild card.
I like the Patriots laying 2.5/3. The Raiders should be better with Geno Smith, but I like Mike Vrabel who took the Ryan Tannehill Titans to a No. 1 seed. The Pats are a darkhorse of mine to make the playoffs.
No feel on the Steelers Jets. Interesting the two quarterbacks played for their opponents last year.
Unsure on Bucs-Falcons. The Bucs are the better rounded, more experienced team, but the Falcons might be on the rise.
No read on the Colts-Dolphins as of yet. Daniel Jones offers more stability, but is still shaky.
On Cardinals-Saints, my instinct is to take the Saints who everyone is fading. Six and a half is a lot for an average team to lay on the road against anyone. But not a slam dunk.
I like the Giants getting 5.5-6 against the Redskins. Jayden Daniels is great, but otherwise the Giants might be the better team.
I’d probably take the 3.5 with the Panthers in Jacksonville. The Jaguars need to earn that favorite status.
Bengals laying 5.5 in Cleveland seems a little light. I know Burrow often starts slowly, but I’ll fade that narrative if I use it.
Titans getting eight in Denver seems like enough. I’m bullish on Bo Nix and Sean Payton this year, but this team might need a few games to jell. Cam Ward might be good too.
The 49ers laying 2.5 in Seattle seems okay, but it really depends on Sam Darnold. Is he the guy during most of the 2024 regular season, or the Darnold we know from the previous seven years and his last two games with the Vikings?
Lions are getting 2.5 in Green Bay. I’d probably go Detroit — they’re the better team until proven otherwise.
Texans +3/3.5 at Rams seems about right. The Texans have a good defense and good QB, but their offensive line killed them last year.
The Ravens are getting only 1.5 in Buffalo. I guess I’d take the Bills, but probably staying away.
The Vikings getting 1.5 in Chicago. I have no idea about this one, would like to see these teams play first.