Week 1 Observations

Dead

In retrospect it seems painfully obvious the Week 1 Survivor play was Jacksonville — they hosted the massage freak QB, the team that just traded Myles Garrett. The Chargers, even setting aside the institutional history of catastrophic collapse, drew a Cardinals team with good skill players and a scrappy NFL-caliber veteran QB. So why did I take the Chargers? Because the market said they were slightly more likely to win. It’s the same mistake I made in fantasy baseball this year — outsourcing to “reliable” indicators, whether the market or the projections, the kind of thing that lands you Brian Woo over Chris Sale and gets you booted from your $1K Circa survivor pool (and two others for good measure.)

But why would I of all people make such a mistake, yet again? I’ve always mocked projections nerds and warned against the perils of groupthink wearing a “wisdom of crowds” costume. Because doing so relieved me of the burden of making the call and keeps alive the dream of creating automated decision systems that print wins and money. It’s the gambler’s version of the perpetual motion machine.

And with the availability of ever-improving AI tools, the lure of building such a system is almost irresistible now. If only I train it on the right inputs, if only I give it the proper logic, if only. Yes, the Survivor tool I built for the site is slick, and the Circa one I built internally even more so, but it’s only as good as the inputs you give it. (I realized today I’ll have to update the one on the site to allow custom inputs for win percentage rather than only taking the market moneylines.)

The truth is, and I think I’ve been avoiding it for a long time is to have a real edge in NFL picking or fantasy baseball or anything, you have to do the work. And the work isn’t figuring out what source is the best or who the sharps are, but actually observing the games, the teams, the preseason, the offseason, the rosters and the coaches. It’s devoting your attention to the game like it’s the most interesting thing in the world because for you it is. I really think I was that way from say 1999 to 2010 or so, and I had a big edge as a result.

I still like fantasy football, picking the games ATS, Survivor, etc., but it’s just not my entire life. I’ve been around, I know how things work, I can articulate my thoughts well, but the reality is I am not going to go watch the edited version of all 16 games, study everyone’s usage rate, etc. I don’t care quite as much anymore about winning my fantasy leagues. I like to believe I do, but reality is determined by action, not what you like to believe.

So where does that leave me? It’s more as a commentator, a hobbyist, someone who enjoys the game recreationally. My real job now is to consult on and trade sports markets, which overlaps the fantasy piece a lot, but it’s more about solving a puzzle, applying what I already know to a process that works in financial markets generally. It’s less about predicting what’s going to happen than positioning yourself to profit regardless of what happens.

I guess that’s just a long winded way of saying, I took the fucking Chargers because the market plus projected usage indicated the Chargers, but I should have known had I used my own brain the Jaguars were obviously the better play, but I didn’t use my own brain because I hadn’t really studied the teams in sufficient depth, and so I preferred to outsource to the market, and the market was retarded.

The irony is a couple days this past week, the Jaguars crept ahead of the Chargers per the tool, as the moneylines fluctuated ever so slightly in each direction. And it also liked the seven-percent owned Lions who play Thanksgiving, but I had an entire strategy of saving opposing teams for one Thanksgiving and one Christmas Day game and strategically burning the best pot-odds ones prior when it were most opportune. The Lions didn’t meet that threshold for Week 1, and they too easily could have lost. In fact, when they stopped the two-point conversion in overtime, I knew in my gut the Chargers were dead. Someone was going to be sacrificed to the Survivor Gods this week, and if it wasn’t the Lions backers, it was gonna be me.

• On the bright side, the Giants looked great. Malik Nabers was mostly himself, Cam Skattebo ran hard and Jaxson Dart ran the offense like an old pro. Dart also got 54 rushing yards but was less reckless with his body, sliding more to avoid hits.

• Isaiah Likely (8-8-78-2) is obviously a top-five TE now, ahead of Colston Loveland for sure. The only TE I would take ahead of him without a second thought is Trey McBride. It wasn’t just the two TDs, it’s the Giants lack of an established second WR, Dart’s usage of him, especially near the goal line, and their obvious rapport. Likely just looks smooth out there, like a big receiver.

• The Giants defense also held the Cowboys in check. Dak Prescott had only 175 yards passing, and Javonte Williams 41 rushing. A lot of it was due to the offense sustaining long drives and keeping the Cowboys off the field (time of possession was 37/23.)

• Williams didn’t seem to have that much juice, but five catches and two TDs pays the bills wherever you drafted him.

• CeeDee Lamb caught five of eight targets including a TD where he shoved the defender out of his way but didn’t get called for it. George Pickens had a quiet day that included a couple drops. The Cowboys longest non-penalty play from scrimmage was 17 yards.

• I don’t have any Brandon Aubrey this year, so I very much enjoyed seeing zero field-goal attempts and a missed PAT.

• I also went 2-3 ATS in Circa Millions, thanks in part to Baker Mayfield losing three fumbles including one at the Bengals goal line. I guess Joe Burrow also threw a pick six to even it out somewhat, but what a slop fest.

• Bucky Irving looks like a good 5-6-round turn pick. He had only eight carries, but seven catches and scored a TD. Kenneth Gainwell is just a backup.

• Chase Brown is just a guy, but the usage was good — 16 carries, a TD and five catches. Ja’Marr Chase saw just four targets, not sure if the knee was still bothering him, but also as I mentioned the game was a slop fest.

• I lost money on Travis Etienne over 80 total YFS. I put the bet in at 45 cents once I saw Alvin Kamara was scratched. Etienne had 78, but couldn’t get three yards on the overtime drive.

• Chris Olave looked like he was hurt after a couple catches, but 13-10-182 is good work if you can get it. It was a big pass funnel game for the entire receiving corps as the Saints got behind and were forced to throw. Tyler Shough started slow, but finished with 410 passing yards on 56 attempts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs did was he was supposed to at the 1.1 — 156 rushing yards, two TDs, five catches.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown got his second TD in overtime. I have him in one NFFC league, but it pisses me off because I traded him to Peter Schoenke in my disastrous Steak League for James Cook because I thought I needed a RB when Josh Jacobs got exempted. But that was before Brock Bowers, A.J. Brown and Ladd McConkey got hurt. The silver lining is as destroyed as that team is, it’ll win its Week 1 matchup IF Nick Bolton outscores Harrison Butker by three points in a point per tackle league, a matchup where the opposing owner (Josh Ross) called out my team to the entire league as being garbage and with whom I now have a side bet on this week’s outcome. Keep in mind we made the bet BEFORE I lost Jacobs, Brown and Bowers and now maybe McConkey (and before the St. Brown-Cook trade.) Imagine how shitty his team is if he loses to my team AFTER all this carnage, and after I traded away 10 points of scoring.

• The Jameson Williams hype this preseason was out of control. Okay, they love the guy, he’s great, but he’s third-fiddle at best in the offense by a mile, neck and neck with Sam LaPorta.

• Getting smoked at home by the Jets in the nut low. The correct pick at 1.1 for the Titans in 2025 was Jaxson Dart, a quarterback so good he introduces presidents.

• Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson saw six targets each, but overcoming this offense will be a tall order.

• Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson earned their keep in the Geno Smith offense through one week at least.

• I thought the Ravens were overhyped, but maybe they’re as advertised. They lost their two top receivers (Zay Flowers, 150 yards on six targets in the first half, (hamstring) and Ja’Kobi Lane (broken wrist) though.

• Derrick Henry scored three more TDs and piled up 144 yards at a six-yard-per-carry clip. He’s a real threat to Emmitt Smith’s career TD record.

• The Colts had a great first drive then disappeared for the rest of the game. Jonathan Taylor got his two TDs, three catches and 121 YFS.

• Bijan Robinson had 173 YFS, eight catches and a TD. The rest of the team had 92, four catches and zero. You actually could have used the Steelers in Survivor too, come to think of it.

• Kyle Pitts and Drake London can’t survive Cooper Rush, but maybe Vagenix will be “Rushed” back soon.

• Aaron Rodgers is a caretaker now, and the Steelers aren’t good enough to win that way.

• The Panthers-Bears total was 96.

• Caleb Williams was en route to an all-time day in the first half, but then the Bears decided to give both running backs monster days too.

• You have to feel for Loveland drafters — Bears put up a 59-spot, and your fourth round TE has two targets and zero yards? Luther Burden at 5-5-63-0 is pretty bad too given the score and where he was drafted, but Loveland is defenestration worthy.

• I imagine survivor pools will pivot now to whoever’s playing the Browns.

• I have Harold Fannin in the Primetime, and I knew it was a stupid pick. How can you produce if someone like Cooper Rush, Deshaun Watson or Shadeur Sanders is your QB? And how bad must Sanders look in practice for Watson still to be starting?

• Trevor Lawrence had three TDs in the first half, then took his foot off the gas. Parker Washington was the top target, but had only six. I’m sure he’d have had more in a competitive game.

• Josh Allen torched the Texans defense, and it looks like DJ Moore is the guy you hoped when you grabbed him at the 3-4 turn. Dalton Kincaid also had a monster game, but only six targets. James Cook’s usage was uncharacteristically modest on the ground, and he rarely gets much receiving opportunity (four targets, three catches in a 36-31 game.)

• Woody Marks was more efficient, but David Montgomery got three TDs and most of the touches. CJ Stroud looked okay to me but there’s really no reliable No. 2 to Nico Collins.

• I thought Malik Willis’ Dolphins would be more effective moving the ball against the Raiders, but they were not, and that threatens to drag De’Von Achane down.

• Ashton Jeanty’s injury scare in the preseason turned out to be nothing. He had 23 carries, six catches, leading the team in both rushing and receiving yards. Kirk Cousins is a poor man’s Aaron Rodgers at this point. Fernando Mendoza shouldn’t have to wait long.

• I didn’t watch the end of Packers-Vikings. How did Minnesota outscore them 22-0 in the fourth quarter?

• Kyler Murray got concussed instantly, but the Vikings might be better off with caretaker Carson Wentz anyway. Wentz (class of 2016, 33) seems old, but Cousins (class of 2012, 38) is older and Rodgers (class of 2005, 42 is ancient.)

• Justin Jefferson if healthy and playing with an NFL-level QB is automatic. I like TJ Hockenson (five targets, TD) this year. Two years ago he was coming off a bad injury, and last year he was playing with JJ McCarthy.

• Marshawn Lloyd is just a guy. The Packers are right now taking a hammer and acid to the Josh Jacobs surveillance video, if it exists.

• Christian Watson had a massive game (8-6-147-2), but why only eight targets? Matthew Golden (12-6-95-0) had 12, while Jayden Reed (7-3-20-0) was the odd man out.

• I find the Eagles unwatchable. No idea why people were taking 150-pound DeVonta Smith at the 2/3 turn. Dallas Goedert late was the right investment in this passing offense, such as it is.

• I also find the Redskins unwatchable, so I didn’t watch much of the game obviously. I guess JCM (Bill) is the starting back, but I don’t see the upside.

• The Chargers game was tough. It was 7-7, the Chargers got the ball back after a missed FG and were driving, but Omarion Hampton bumped into his own man and fumbled like a retard. The Chargers couldn’t run much, but Justin Herbert also couldn’t find open receivers except Ladd McConkey who of course got injured. Their second leading receiver was David Njoku and third was Oronde Gadsden, mostly on one play, but for whatever reason they never went to him again. Mike McDaniel’s first game against a weak defense was poor.

• As inconsistent as the offense was, the defense was even worse. Jacoby Brissett moved the ball at will, and no one could cover Trey McBride. How laughable idiots (like me in one league) took Brock Bowers a round ahead of him. Why wouldn’t you just take the healthy guy in his prime coming off an all-time season, who is reunited with the QB who supplied it? No, I want the balding 23-YO guy coming off the PCL tear making it work with Kirk Cousins!

• Imagine drafting Marvin Harrison in the fifth round! He’s a poor man’s Quentin Johnston at best. Michael Wilson is better and more reliable, and Kendrick Bourne is an annoying possession guy who steps up big against you in Survivor.

• Jeremyiah Love looked healthy enough and showed some wiggle, but this is obviously a real timeshare with Tyler Allgeier for now. Maybe Love eventually proves he’s much better, but that didn’t happen in Week 1.

• When you lose in Survivor you have only yourself to blame, especially when it’s via the Chargers.