Week 10 Observations

I should be in a better mood, but I’m not.

The Giants won, and they covered. Saquon Barkley sits atop the rushing-yardage leader board through Week 10, and I have him at 35-1 to lead the league. My NFFC teams went either 5-0 or 4-1, depending whether an opponent gets 14 points from Antonio Gibson tonight.

I won in the Vegas league, my desperate Steak League team scored 168 points, and even in the Staff keeper league where I tried to trade away assets as a seller, I’m suddenly a borderline contender.

But I went 2-3 ATS in the Circa Millions, and I’m especially annoyed after watching that 49ers game this morning. Not only did I have George Kittle going in the Primetime, for which total points matter a lot, but I had the 49ers minus seven in the Circa Millions. Leave aside they would have pushed but for Robbie Gould’s missed PAT on the 49ers go-ahead score, they also got the ball back on the seven-yard line in the closing minutes and couldn’t push it in.

Moreover, on 4th-and-Goal from the two, Kyle Shanahan opted for the field goal to go up six and kick off rather than the game-sealing TD, which even had it failed, would have left the Chargers at the two-yard line, down three, with no timeouts.

It’s not that the game was even a bad beat — one could argue the Chargers were the right side. It’s that I had given up, then got a miracle chance to get it anyway, and not only did they fail on three plays, but Shanahan deprived me of my rightful opporunity on a fourth. I am able to concede I picked the wrong side in a game, but once I’ve made peace with that, do not give me false hope and rug me again!

• The Vikings-Bills game was insane, from the Justin Jefferson 4th-and-18 catch (which he wouldn’t have made without the defender’s help), Dalvin Cook dropping the go-ahead TD at the goal-line, to the Bills fumbling back the lead to the Josh Allen pick in OT with the Bills within field-goal range.

• Kirk Cousins made some incredible throws on the Vikings last two drives while under pressure.

• Josh Allen looked healthy to me, the soul-crushing pick notwithstanding. The Bills might still be the NFL’s best team, but they don’t have much depth on offense, and they’re only a game out of last place in the AFC East.

• The Packers and Bucs, two preseason favorites, both regressed to the mean in a big way Sunday.

• Kenneth Walker (10-17-0, 8-6-55-0) got stuffed on the ground, but it was encouraging to see him used so heavily as a receiver. Of course, I sat Jonathan Taylor for him in a league, so it wasn’t quite enough.

• While Geno Smith has been much better than Russell Wilson this year, DK Metcalf (9-6-71-0) hasn’t been able to make the big plays he did with Wilson. I guess this trend started last year with Wilson too, but you’d think they’d throw Metcalf a few more jump balls.

• Speaking of Smith, (except for a sloppy and costly sack-fumble) he made some great throws under heavy pressure on fourth downs.

• Name the only quarterback to win seven Super Bowls and a game on German soil.

• I don’t know how much money Tom Brady put into FTX — it’s incredible to fathom someone at Brady’s level is getting such terrible advice — but as a broke single man he’s hungry again!

• Aaron Rodgers in particular looked sharp, and Christian Watson’s breakout (8-4-107-3) bodes well for a team that badly needed to stretch defenses. Allen Lazard is a nice complementary piece, but was miscast as a No. 1 WR. And they did this against the Cowboys, who have one of the league’s top defenses.

• CeeDee Lamb (15-11-150-2) finally was the player people had hoped for when taking him at the 1-2 turn this summer.

• I had the Bears -3 in the Circa Millions too, and that looked great when they were up 24-10.

• Justin Fields threw the soul-crushing pick six, but he just looks too big, strong and fast for the game. He’s got more rushing yards on the year than Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook. He like a faster Josh Allen and probably ahead of where Allen was in his second year.

• Cole Kmet (7-4-74-2) was a buzzy TE this preseason, but he was a draft-day bust because he’s now scoring touchdowns on someone else’s roster.

• I didn’t watch much of Tennessee-Denver, but Jerry Jeudy is always hurt.

• Trevor Lawrence looks good for short stretches. He rarely puts together a complete game.

• Patrick Mahomes in the fifth round (I got him in the sixth) is a league-winning pick.