Week 10 Observations

Answered Prayers

I said the prayer, and it was largely answered, mostly because my mistakes weren’t that egregious. Yes, I swapped out Mark Andrews for Kyle Pitts because a bunch of nerds on Twitter were saying what a great matchup Pitts had, but also because Andrews had like three targets per game the last few weeks. As it turns out, Andrews caught a TD and outscored him by five points or so, but Pitts had an end-zone target that was underthrown by Michelle Vaginex too. It wasn’t that bad a call, and the price wasn’t that steep, especially because I won my matchup anyway. But I am burying the lede which is that I went 5-0 in Circa Millions to kick off Q3. Long way to go, but now Week 11 is big. Go minimum 4-1, and it gets serious.

But that’s not the only thing that went right. My Chiefs stack team with Ja’Marr Chase and Javonte Williams was entirely on bye this week, but I still needed to post something credible to stay in contention:

Here’s my bench:

And here’s my lineup:

Not bad actually, and this is despite Jaxson Dart getting hurt, missing the entire fourth quarter and taking Devin Singletary and Darius Slayton down with him (Russell Wilson was beyond inept.)

Of course, I got smoked in the matchup, but the team is still top-300, and assuming a solid final four weeks, has a good chance to get into the postseason with all the Chiefs on the roster.

My other two contending teams did okay, but it’s probably RIP for my two weakest fringe-contending NFFC teams. They were long shots anyway, but zeroes from Garrett Wilson AND DJ Moore was too much.

So I’m down to two Onlines and the Primetime.

. . .

The one truly catastrophic performance was my Steak League team that had just climbed back into contention behind a healthy Lamar Jackson and Brock Bowers last week. This week:

I mean I picked up the Panthers kicker (based Butker was on bye, along with Rashee Rice), and that worthless fuck got me one point! When your DB is your second-highest scorer, you are in big trouble. Barring a miraculous turnaround, it’s very likely I’ll be shelling out for some steaks.

• That Colts-Falcons game sucked, other than my having the Falcons +6.5 in Circa. Vagenix (can’t even call him three-inch at this point) is a poor man’s Tua Tagovailoa. A lefty QB with a quick release who panics if his early read isn’t open.

• Raheem Morris was terrible with his clock management too, both at the end of the first half and in regulation — use your timeouts when the other team is already in field goal range, dumb ass!

• I shouldn’t have switched to Pitts out of principle. That dude lives to rug.

• Why the fuck are the Falcons running Tyler Allgeier and exclusively targeting Darnell Mooney in overtime? Why draft Bijan Robinson and Drake London if you’re not gonna use them in crunch time? Mooney had eight targets, one catch and 17 yards!

• If peak Kirk Cousins were the QB, Drake London might be a top-three WR. At least I had him going.

• For God knows what reason the booth was going on and on about whether the Falcons were entitled to run another play with three seconds left in regulation after Vagenix got called for intentional grounding — the 10-second runoff didn’t apply because they still had timeouts. But it was obvious they didn’t care and were going to kneel on it anyway!

• This came up in my feed during the game. Oh now she’s embarrassed!

  

• Danny Dimes got the win, but he again fumbled, threw a pick and took seven sacks. The shine is coming off the star a bit after the hot start.

• Jonathan Taylor — what more can you say? On the Chiefs stack team he was there are 2.12, but I took Ladd McConkey instead!

• The Colts aren’t making it out of the divisional round IMO.

• I also had the Texans +1.5 and had written it off. No idea how Davis Mills rallied them back from a 19-point deficit, but I’ll take it!

• One key to my season going forward is Woody Marks who I have everywhere, and he delivered with 14 carries, a TD and two catches. He had another TD called back due to a false start too. Nick Chubb looked good in limited action against a tired defense, but seems like Marks is the guy now.

• Nico Collins delivering too little too late, but at least he’s not Brian Thomas.

• Trevor Lawrence is the Kyler Murray of the AFC. Bring back Mac Jones!

• Not sure what the point of the Jaguars is, why they even exist. Just hope none of you teased them — talk about a bad beat, up 29-10, lose by seven on a last second defensive TD!

• Shocking the Panthers had a winning record coming into that game. Bryce Young showed a spark at the end of last year, but he’s not even Trevor Lawrence/Kyler Murray.

• Rico Dowdle scored a TD but so much for the “smash” spot.

• I didn’t watch much of the game, but if the Panthers offered Young for Tyler Shough, who says yes?

• TreVeyon Henderson finally delivered on that third-round draft cost. If you got Jonathan Taylor in Rd 2, you might even still be alive for the playoffs! Still 14 carries and one target does not a bell cow make.

• Last week it was Demario Douglas, this week Mack Hollins. You never know who’s going to get the ball with the Patriots.

• Emeka Egbuka had 115 yards and a TD, but only six catches on 13 targets. Cade Otton is the No. 2 receiver now with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out. Tez Johnson had two TDs, but on only five targets. If I knew Bucky Irving weren’t coming back I’d probably get Sean Tucker. Maybe you should get him anyway.

• The Browns offense is rough with Dillon Gabriel, though remember Joe Flacco wasn’t any better. Jerry Jeudy made an appearance finally.

• I benched Justin Fields for Gabriel in a QB-flex league — I knew it would be tough going against the Browns. Now that Garrett Wilson is hurt again, not sure where the passing yards will come from. Breece Hall had 42 on one catch, next highest player had four.

• So Jets to win that game and drop down in the draft. Count on one more win in Week 18 too.

• The Vikings defense might be good again. They held Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson in check. Jackson spread the ball around so much, virtually no one is startable.

• Jalen Nailor did all the scoring even though Jefferson and Addison got all the targets. Odd game, but JJ McCarthy is a wild card at QB.

• Had the Dolphins +9, probably my best pick of the day. I noticed they actually outplayed the Ravens for a half in the Thursday night, and the Bills were fat and drunk off their Chiefs win.

• The Bills spread the ball around a lot, and their best receiver Dalton Kincaid left with a hamstring injury. James Cook got involved in the passing game finally due to game flow, but was contained.

• De’Von Achane had 22 carries and six targets — McCaffrey-type usage, only with more efficiency. Jaylen Waddle seems comfortable as the No. 1 receiver, though game flow limited his upside.

• The Giants are 2-8, but would be 5-5 with credible coaching, probably 6-4 had Jaxson Dart played Week 1, 7-3 had so many key players not gotten injured.

• Dart looks like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen to me. He’s that good, despite the poor environment. Even the offensive line looks better when he’s in there. He put up 242 passing yards in the rain/snow, 66 rushing yards and two TDs in three quarters before leaving with a concussion. Russell Wilson looked beyond cooked in the fourth quarter, though Wan’Dale Robinson had a terrible drop.

• The offensive line opened some holes for Tyrone Tracy, and he made the most of it. Devin Singletary got most of his on one big pass play along the sidelines.

• Slayton made an insane one-handed catch down the field but was limited afterwards with a hamstring injury and handicapped once Dart went out.

• I was fine with the Giants settling for a FG on 4th-and-goal from the one to go up 10 with 10 minutes left. They kicked off, forced the Bears to punt and even got the ball back. Plus getting a yard with Russell Wilson is harder than doing it with Dart, and going up two scores was meaningful. Unfortunately, the defense collapsed, and Wilson couldn’t generate any offense the rest of the game. At least the Giants covered the 4.5 for me.

• Caleb Williams is a hard quarterback to evaluate. I’ll give him one thing — he’s very hard to sack. He must have been dead to rights five times, but always slipped out.

• D’Andre Swift took back the job mostly from Kyle Monangai who’s just a Monangai.

• Rome Odunze handed his zero to DJ Moore and bounced back. Colston Loveland didn’t get a catch until the second half, despite the monster game in Week 9. Maybe OZ will finally see fewer targets after he dropped three passes, but Bears pass catchers are almost as frustrating and Patriots ones.

• Trey McBride is going bananas with Jacoby Brissett at QB, even if he benefited from an entire game of garbage time. Marvin Harrison didn’t do much with 12 targets, but scored a TD at least.

• By contrast Sam Darnold had to do very little having been gifted such a big lead via defensive TDs. JSN got 93 yards and a TD on six targets. No one does more with less.

• Kenny Walker is usually on my bench now — he gets the worthless between the 20s runs, few catches and no TDs.

• Apparently Dan Campbell took over the play calling from John Morton, and it showed. Unfortunately I had benched Jared Goff for Bo Nix this week. I’d be first in points in that league had I not left Nix’s 44-point week on my bench, started his nine point week and left Goff’s 47 point week in September on my bench.

• Jameson Williams had his second straight good game, with seven targets to ARSB’s eight. Jahmyr Gibbs had a monster game on only 15 carries and four targets.

• The Rams -4.5 were my fifth Circa pick, and they had it most of the way, though the Niners did cut it to seven twice.

• Puka Nacua doesn’t seem 100 percent, only had six targets. Davante Adams strained his oblique, but had a good game beforehand. Matthew Stafford should be the MVP favorite with 25 TDs and two picks.

• Kyren Williams is like Josh Jacobs — it’s not exciting like Taylor or Achane but the results are usually good.

• Christian McCaffrey has slowed down some of late, though 10-8-66-0 as a receiver is a ridiculous floor. Brian Robinson scored for the second straight week. Seems like they’re trusting him a little more to share the rushing workload.

• George Kittle and Jajuan Jennings finally had good games — helps when your QB completes 33 of 39 passes. Mac Jones is a starter in the NFL.

• The Chargers annihilated the Steelers.

• Jaylen Warren had a nice hurdle — usually after a hurdle the player is off balance and goes down, but Warren didn’t even break stride.

• Justin Herbert is getting it done in tough conditions with a decimated offensive line. Ladd McConkey’s been productive lately, but he could really be a monster if Herbert can get more time in the pocket. (McConkey almost had a second TD, but was run down (surprisingly) from behind by Jalen Ramsey.)

• Quentin Johnston didn’t do much with his team-leading 10 targets. I do think he and McConkey could be huge down the stretch if Ordonde Gadsden (knee) misses time. Keenan Allen’s role seems to be fading.

• Kimani Vidal looked good again, and I’d expect him to keep a significant role even after Omarion Hampton returns.

• I had Chris Boswell going in a key league, and while it was amazing he hit that 59-yarder to kick things off, missing the 45-yarder caused the Steelers to have to go for it on 4th-and-6 later in the game instead of kicking a FG. It was an eight-point miss, as it turns out.