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Week 10 Observations
I switched to the Bengals from the Seahawks in my home Survivor pool. I went back and forth on it, but decided to trust Joe Burrow and fade the hype on C.J. Stroud. Plus I didn’t trust Geno Smith and the Seahawks against a scrappy Team team. I’m not that mad about it. One team lost on a last second field goal, and the other won.
It was funny because after Burrow threw the second pick down 10 with four minutes and change left, I slammed my laptop shut, took the L, went downstairs to walk Oscar. When I came back up, I couldn’t believe they were inside the 20 again, down three. They actually almost had the go-ahead TD too, but Tyler Boyd dropped it, and they settled for a FG to tie, before losing again. But I was even less mad the second time because it seemed like a miracle they were even back in it.
I also went 1-4 against the spread (and I used the same picks for all three entries.) I knew it was a mistake to describe the process — you never want to get conceptual about something that’s instinctive. There’s no way Tom Brady could explain why he was able to do what he did. The explaining has nothing to do with the doing.
My fantasy teams did well — the Primetime team has 172 points with Jerry Jeudy (good for 3-5 points, typically) still going tonight. It’s probably drawing dead, but a couple more big weeks, and it could get into the mix on points. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have been massive the last few weeks. The Steak League team also did pretty well thanks in part to my IDPs — Roquan Smith had 21 tackles and Jesse Bates had 11.
Did Rich Eisen really say, when the Pats' lineman was getting oxygen on the sideline, "a Blue Velvet-like moment there?" Pretty sure this is the scene in Blue Velvet to which he was referring. Seriously, click that link and you’ll see how insane the reference was during an NFL game.
So much respect for the pull-the-starting-QB for the potential-game-winning-drive, fake-snap, game-sealing-pick sequence. Every week I ask what the purpose of this Pats roster is, and now I know.
Either NFL defenses are conspiring to leave his receivers wide open, or C.J. Stroud looks like one of the greats already. He somehow gets the ball where it needs to go when it needs to get there, even when he’s under pressure, even when it’s 3rd-and-14. It was back-breaking. My comp for him is Joe Montana.
Noah Brown was solid as a reserve for the Cowboys, he was always open yesterday, and the ball always arrived on time. I should have picked him up after last week, but I didn’t.
Here’s a list of my rough comps for current QBs:
The Burrow one is a bit of a stretch, but like a younger Big Ben, Burrow scrambles more to throw than take off, though he can take off. And Burrow shakes off tackles well in the pocket. While peak Rodgers might seem like a slight to Mahomes, people forget how great 2010-11 Rodgers really was. A total wizard.
The AFC is so loaded at QB, but it also has Mac Jones and QB1.
The buy-low, sell-high paradigm for picking games ATS is useful, but you can’t get too formulaic with it. Complex systems never work so straightforwardly.
Trevor Lawrence doesn’t even merit a comp right now. If pressed, maybe I’d go Ryan Tannehill. There was a play — I’m not sure exactly what happened — where someone fumbled, and the 49ers returned it for a TD I think was overturned, but Lawrence chased the defender all the way to the goal line (like 75 yards) and tackled the guy low like three yards into end zone. No one was hurt, but it was an egregious late hit by Lawrence, though they’d never call a QB for doing that. Maybe his best play of the game.
The Giants-Cowboys game was hilarious. For most of the first quarter the drama was whether the Giants would get a safety on every play, since they were inside their own five for two or three series. Then they just got blown out, but kept trying hard for all 60 minutes. I know the market odds had Dallas as 92 percent to win, but it was really like 99 if you’ve followed the Giants.
Bijan Robinson got his touches, played well, and the Falcons still lost.
Deshaun Watson really got beat up in that game. Is he’s allowed to get a massage.
I’m curious to see Joshua Dobbs when Justin Jefferson comes back. Could be a top-five fantasy QB.
Mike Evans just has to stay healthy for a few more games, and he’ll get his 10th straight 1,000-yard season.
Would it kill Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown?
The Packers and Steelers are also pointless teams, Pittsburgh’s record notwithstanding.
Kyler Murray passed the eye test for me. I like that the Cardinals got a win, putting the Giants closer to the No. 1 overall pick.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has eclipsed 100 yards in six of eight games this year, and had 56 and 71 in the other two, scoring in both. In other words, he hasn’t had a single dud all year.
The Team’s two leading receivers were its running backs (Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson) in a game where Sam Howell threw for 312 yards.
Don’t know if you’ve noticed the new logo and watermark on the site, but my daughter, Sasha, designed it. I’m terrible at these things, she’s good at them and I don’t (yet) have to pay her.