Week 11 Observations
RIP Q3
I much prefer to write these after a good week. I used to kind of relish excoriating myself after every mistake, complaining about all the questionable calls and coaches’ decision-making that went against me, but not so much anymore. When I lose, I try to think of it as the outcome that’s most suited to me at this particular time. Had I gone 5-0, that would have been most suited, but apparently I really needed the 1-4 to knock me out of Q3.
I won’t pretend to know the particular lesson in this. Life isn’t like that. You take from it what you choose and then await the next lesson. If I had to guess I’d say I wasn’t ready to win Q3 — not the money, that’s not the issue — but psychologically I wasn’t ready to accept winning it.
You see my brain has been poisoned with these ideas about probability wherein it’s very hard to go 5-0 (1 in 32, maybe 1 in 28 or so if you have an edge.) To do it twice is 1 in 1000 (2 ^10 = 1024). To do it four times (20 - 0) is less than one in a million. So when I go to pick the games each week I have this foreboding and dread that it can’t be done. Or that it *can* be done, but only with a lot of luck. This is toxic.
Whether or not the math adds up is irrelevant to the process of picking the games. You are divining what is likely to happen and positioning yourself accordingly. Maybe I am the greatest of all time. Maybe I *can* go on a 20-0 run if I get in sync. Tom Brady had no business believing he could win seven Super Bowls. If he focused on the odds of that happening, it probably wouldn’t have happened. He just went out and played as though he could win one every year.
So my takeaway is I’m too much of a midwit, someone who learned the Probability 101 course and thinks he’s got this shit down. I’m too savvy to win the Q3, because I know better, because I’ve run the numbers and realize it can’t be done without a ton of luck. I want to be less savvy, less caught up in probabilities and more naive. I want to pick with the confidence of someone who is totally naive to the likelihood and all-in on transmuting my observations and knowledge of what I see into the winning picks.
I will try to do this going forward, but it’s possible my long stint in the midwit fantasy industry damaged my brain too much.
The Bengals-Chargers 40-minute edit wasn’t ready when I woke up this morning, so I watched the six-minute highlights. I had Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and JK Dobbins, so there were a lot of highlights! I also had Khalil Herbert going out of desperation due to byes in one league, and I’m not sure if he played.
Alan Seslowsky put out a video before the year saying to take Chase No. 1 overall, and being the donkey I am, I took it literally and drafted him in three leagues. Reminds me of that Buddhist story where three monks tell a retarded monk (a “fool”) that if he lets each of them whack him with a stick, he’ll become enlightened. So he agrees, they hit him and it works.
I don’t think the Chargers are serious contenders, but with Jim Harbaugh there it’s finally at least possible.
The Packers are out of sync and obviously very lucky to win that game. No idea why they refuse to give Jayden Reed targets, but I’m happy about it since I once regretted not drafting him.
I watched the first two-thirds of the Lions-Jaguars, and I can assure you that game was not as close as the score. Total domination on both sides. It was incidentally the only ATS pick I won.
I picked the Titans +6 due to divine inspiration, but it must have been intended for a different branch of the multiverse, one where the refs didn’t call a garbage personal foul on 4th-and-goal that gifted the Vikings, who won by 10, a TD instead of a turnover on downs.
A few games ago, Chase/Justin Jefferson was a close call, but Chase has since left him in the dust.
With Marvin Harrison on bye, I was forced to start Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, so I appreciated the 98-yard TD pass to him. Just a 16.8-point play. Will Levis sucks though.
My Primetime team will do okay if CJ Stroud has a good game (especially if he connects with Tank Dell), but I originally had Anthony Richardson in at QB and Jonnu Smith (28 points) at TE who I benched for Dallas Goedert. (I was actually satisfied with Goedert’s 11 points on Thursday night too.)
I have Jaylen Waddle in one league, started him over Jonnu and Elijah Moore. I know everyone would have done that, but at what point do you have to start considering say Ladd McConkey over him. (Next week, I get Malik Nabers back, so I’ll have that choice.)
Brock Bowers maybe should have been the Dynasty League 1.1. for this year’s rookies.
I saw a little of the Pats-Rams game. Cooper Kupp caught an intermediate ball, the defender missed and he ran untouched for 69 yards with no one near him. The Rams were totally stifled by the Dolphins last week too.
Drake Maye looked pretty good to me from what I watched. I don’t know if he’ll be great, but he’s over the threshold.
I had the Browns plus 1.5 as one of my picks, and it looked okay until the fourth quarter when they fell apart. I also had Taysom Hill in my dynasty league where I was forced to start two tight ends. See below:
Jerry Jeudy has random massive games once every year or so. But the Browns are so much more watchable with Jameis Winston than Deshaun Watson, who should just hire prostitutes to re-enact the massage experience in perpetuity with that money.
The time to pick up Anthony Richardson was last week, which I did in two leagues. He was obviously going to get another shot, and the upside was/is still there.
The Jets are hilarious, should have stuck with QB1.
I had the Ravens -3, and while it was the losing side, they are the better team than the Steelers. Justin Tucker hit that last 54-yarder, but he missed two earlier field goals in the game, and it was tough to watch. It’s as if the great Mariano Rivera had gotten shelled in his final season (which he did not.)
I really thought the Ravens would get that two-point conversion and cover in overtime too.
The Falcons never got off the plane. No idea what happened there. At least we got to see some Penix. “12-inch” passed the eye test for me, though he could have put more air under one deep throw. Is that not his college nickname?
Never try and handicap the Denver running back situation.
The 49ers look like themselves, but there’s something missing. I guess Nick Bosa getting hurt and George Kittle not playing explains some of it.
Geno Smith made a bad-ass 16-yard TD scramble to win the game. It looks like JSN has emerged as his No. 1 receiver finally even with DK Metcalf back. Tyler Lockett seems relegated to a bit role.
The Chiefs had a shot after their TD to cut it to 23-21, but Josh Allen crushed their spirits with a 26-yard TD on 4th-and-2. Save it for the playoffs, Josh!
I watched the Tyson-Paul flight on Netflix Saturday morning. It was pretty dull, but I’ve heard two conflicting theories since: (1) Paul took it easy on Tyson late out of respect for the legend — Tyson did look exhausted after eight shortened rounds; and (2) That Tyson went easy on Paul, pulled punches and let him win. (There were a couple points where Tyson slowed up after Paul made an odd gesture like sticking his tongue out.) I don’t know, but they both got paid so much, nothing would surprise me.