Week 11 Observations

Disaster

Where to start? I had the good fortune of going 5-0 during the first week of the Circa Millions Q3, chance of a lifetime, and I blew it, going 2-3. I don’t even mind two of the losses that much. One was the Falcons -3.5 who were up 21-7, but Vagenix left with knee vaginitis and gave way to Kirk Cousins. You’re more likely to inherit money from your fourth cousin than get a good game from Kirk. But I should have known as the Falcons have rugged more people than Madoff this season.

The other loss with which I can live is the Vikings -2.5. Their defense IS good, the Bears ARE overrated, it’s just that JJ McCarthy sucks, and Jordan Addison couldn’t catch the ball to save his life. Those were bad picks, but they were not ones over which a better man than me would set himself ablaze in front of NFL headquarters. No, that game was the Chargers -3 at Jacksonville.

What is my problem? The Chargers lost to the Giants in the east coast early body-clock game, barely beat the Titans and Dolphins too. The Jaguars are bad, but they play defense. They run the football on occasion. Yes, Justin Herbert is a million times better than Trevor Lawrence if he has NFL offensive linemen protecting him, but he does not. The whole ”Herbert > Lawrence = lay the wood” logic was normie retardation. I knew this too, but justified it to myself by saying, well even the normies win 40 percent of the time. Put it this way, when the Vikings got behind, I had hope, felt they would come back in the game. When the Chargers got behind I knew immediately they were DOA, and I deserved it.

For fantasy it was just as bad. All three of my contending NFFC teams lost. My Primetime might be drawing dead now, and I had a self-inflicted error leaving in Kyle “lives to rug” Pitts over RB Mark Andrews. I had Jared Goff, ARSB, JSN, Rome Odunze in another league, started Quinshon Judkins and Woody Marks over Kenny Walker. The Chiefs stack team needed one more drive, but the defense couldn’t get a stop to save its life. I experienced almost no joy watching these games. It was death by a thousand paper cuts, 100 baseball bats, 10 machetes, five pistols and one bazooka.

The only silver lining is suffering so miserably over NFL results really makes you aware of how much your happiness needs to be independent of external events. I mean there is no better teacher of the myriad ways you can get fucked than having high stakes fantasy football teams and ATS investments. Getting attached to NFL results is so obviously a fool’s errand you can’t but become aware how far you have gone down the wrong path. You can read the bible all day, you can pray and worship and feed the poor, but if you really want to become enlightened, get yourself emotionally invested in NFL outcomes to know beyond any doubt a meaningful (and even tolerable) life requires you to do the opposite.

• I was at my daughter’s basketball game so I missed the Madrid classic. I did track it toward the end and couldn’t figure out whey Mike McDaniel went for it on 4th down rather than just kicking the go-ahead FG. Some 11-D chess, I guess, but they did win in overtime.

• I don’t have De’Von Achane anywhere, so I was glad to see Ollie Gordon get the TD. Achane is a monster though.

• Kind of hard to care about the Redskins. Just a bunch of scrubs, some of whom occasionally do something.

• Bijan Robinson was finally allowed some goal-line work though Tyler Allgeier scored too.

• Drake London hurt his knee, and apparently it’s “not serious”, though he might miss some time. Not serious for whom? I'm hanging on by a thread here, and he’s my second-round pick!

• The Falcons defense just resurrected Bryce Young’s career. Where did 448 yards and three TDs come from? People are starting to remember why they drafted Tetairoa McMillan in Round 3 too.

• At least the ridiculous Rico Dowdle hype has faded somewhat. He destroyed a couple of the NFL’s worst run defenses.

• I picked up Sean Tucker in a league, just didn’t have the balls to start him over Woody Marks. He’s a better runner than the RaGigaChaad, and who knows if Bucky Irving will ever be 100 percent his year.

• Emeka Egbuka has been quiet the last few games relative to his early-season breakout. Maybe having Mike Evans OR Chris Godwin was better for him.

• I took Lamar Jackson over Josh Allen in a QB-flex league and deeply regret it. Allen is more consistent, more durable and more capable of doing it with scrubs.

• I kind of knew the Texans-Titans would be ugly and close. I should have used the Titans over the Chargers in Circa, but I didn’t want to cast my lot in with the league’s worst team. Nutless on my part. Bad outing for Marks in an easy matchup too.

• There’s nothing really to say about the Titans. None are startable. And Calvin Ridley broke his leg.

• I’m not sold on Caleb Williams, but one thing is undeniable, he’s one of the best ever at escaping sure sacks. The trick is he waits until the last second before he moves, so the defender can’t adjust his angle. And he’s very quick.

• McCarthy is dead weight in what should be a high-flying passing offense. No wonder they trotted out the injured carcass of Carson “If” for so long.

• Tom Brady is my favorite color guy. If anyone could harp on what QBs are doing wrong it’s him, but he doesn’t get that critical. Maybe one reason why he was so resilient when he played — just didn’t beat himself up that much over errors.

• Jordan Addison had a bunch of drops, though he did catch the TD. I thought Justin Jefferson was QB-proof, but maybe not.

• The Giants showed a ton of heart in the loss to the Packers. Total scrubs just gritting it out at the line of scrimmage.

• Jameis Winston played well against a good defense, and there’s some thought his game-ending pick was because Jalin Motel 6 stopped his route. Tyrone Tracy did his best Cam Skattebo impression too, catching passes and grinding out yards after contact.

• Maybe Jordan Love should target Christian Watson more than five times per game? Why can’t the Packers ever get the ball in the hands of their most explosive players?

• Josh Jacobs hurt his knee, could miss some time. I guess Emanuel Wilson would be the guy — 11 carries when no one else had more than one.

• It’s weird how the Steelers and others suddenly decided to guard Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

• One good Circa pick was the Steelers. The Joe Flacco bonanza was not sustainable.

• Aaron Rodgers got hurt, but there’s probably not as much daylight been him and Mason Rudolph these days. Rodgers is apparently 50/50 to return next week.

• It’s hard to start Steelers skill players when Kenny Gainwell is the receiving leader with two TDs.

• Fun watching nearly 300-pound TE Darnell Washington straight-arm DBs into a differential dimension on a couple plays.

• Not sure exactly what happened between Chase and Jaylen Ramsey, but Ramsey punched him in the face and got tossed. Ramsey reminds me of Omar from the wire.

• I have Bhayshul Tuten in a couple places on my bench of course. Feels like he’s Woody Marks 2.0 — he’ll lay an egg if you decide to start him.

• Trevor Lawrence is best suited to the caretaker role. It’s almost better Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter are out so he can’t even attempt to do otherwise.

• The Chargers should really give people heads up if they plan to forfeit. Mr. Zero Quentin Johnston struck again too. Just sit the game out if you’re not gonna catch a pass!

• Matthew Stafford played a clean game, but it was all dink and dunk. Davante Adams is entering the Jimmy Graham phase where he *only* catches TDs. Even Puka Nacua hasn’t seen the volume since he came back. Boring Kyren Williams always delivers though.

• The Seahawks outplayed the Rams, but Sam Darnold 2.0 still seems to choke in the biggest spots. He did it last year against the Lions in a game for the top seed and in the playoffs too.

• I benched Kenny Walker because he was getting only the worthless between the 20s carries, but you see when things got urgent, he scored a TD and caught three passes for 44 yards. It’s annoying how much they feed Zach Scrubbonnet though.

• JSN had a modest game by his standards, but made a great one-handed catch on the sidelines and still eclipsed 100 yards. One good thing I did was pick up AJ Barner for my flex in the Steak League — he was Darnold’s No. 2, ahead of Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Empty Kupp.

• Jason Myers has to man up and drill that 61-yarder for the win. Or at least make it credible. That’s like a 50-yarder from 10 years ago.

• Lamar Jackson is not himself yet, but the Browns defense is also very good.

• Myles Garrett might be the second greatest defensive player of all time. (If you have to ask who No. 1 is, you don’t know football.)

• Derrick Henry got his yards, but the offense lacks rhythm, and most of it came on a 59-yard run.

• Shadeur Sanders made his debut after Dillon Gabriel got hurt, and now we see why they weren’t eager to audition him. Looked like the average man off the street. Gabriel still has zero upside though. Poor man’s Vagenix, who is a poor woman’s Tua.

• The problem with Judkins is an offense needs a baseline of competence for any RB, and the Browns don’t meet that threshold.

• Forget about the pass-catchers for Cleveland. They don’t exist.

• At least the Browns covered the 7.5, my other Circa win. It was good the whole way even if they only made it by half a point in the end.

• KC-Denver was so frustratingly sloppy. The Broncos defense is good, but between penalties and lack of big plays it was a tough watch.

• Travis Kelce is in peak form right now. The Chiefs gave him 13 targets to Rashee Rice’s nine, and Rice got about six of his in the first quarter, while Kelce was virtually ignored. Probably had to do with the defense, but Rice and Kelce are the only two startable Chiefs other than Patrick Mahomes and maybe Kareem Hunt. Xavier is unWorthy of a lineup spot.

• The Broncos are borderline unusable in fantasy. You’d think RJ Harvey might have a big game, but 11 carries and only three targets, with Jaleel McLaughlin getting the TD. And now Pat Bryant is cutting into Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton’s targets too. Next week it’ll be Evan Engram probably.

• The other sickening thing is I had Jacoby Brissett in both my QB-flex leagues, but dropped him, one even after he was the starter because Kyler Murray was supposed to be back for the Monday Night game. Brissett broke the record for completed passes with 47.

• Michael Wilson was an obvious pickup, so obvious I forgot about him. Trey McBride is as automatic now as Travis Kelce used to be. What a waste he had to play the last year and a half with Murray.

• Mac Jones is solid, but Brock Purdy is better.

• Christian McCaffrey had a lighter workload due to game-flow, only 13 carries, six targets and three touchdowns.

• George Kittle, ostensibly further removed from his hamstring injury, finally broke out with Purdy back. Top-five TE ROS.

• The Eagles-Lions game was rough. ARSB had two catches on 12 targets! Jared Goff does not do well under pressure, and the Eagles hurried him all game.

• Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs both had good games as receivers — on the rare occasion you can get the ball off, best to get it into the hands of someone fast.

• The Lions defense played well. It sucks the game ended on a defensive PI (I was watching the edited version, couldn’t see if it was legit.)

• The squeaky wheel (AJ Brown) saw 11 targets, but only seven catches for 47 yards. Saquon Barkley ground out 83 tough yards, but didn’t have much to show for it.

• Jalen Hurts is the greatest caretaker in NFL history. The Eagles could win a second Super Bowl with him, but their offensive line isn’t as good as last year’s, and the Ass Smash isn’t working the way it used to.